MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: verbatim not really-it's above freezing with moderate daytime precip...that's mostly white rain verbatim It's February, not March. Enough of this not sticking crap. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: What in the world is going on with the Euro?! Not saying it's wrong but wow so different. What are the Mesos indicating? A lot more than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: Dunno, I don't think any MAJOR roadway in NYC will be terribly affected? Hard to stick with temps above freezing and layers of salt on roads and warm ground 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Tatamy said: A lot more than the Euro. What a rollercoaster with the models this past week. Insanity. Everyone thought this was going to trend north and the models were until it realized that they were all wrong with the strength of the southern wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Hard to stick with temps above freezing and layers of salt on roads and warm ground They are going to pollute the streets with salt tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's February, not March. Enough of this not sticking crap. Has nothing to do with it. It's been in the 50's and even 60's. You won't accumulate moderate snow with crappy dynamics/34-35 degrees and daytime given the setup even if it were Jan 15th same around here not just the city-we need heavy snow to bring the temps down to 32/33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Brian5671 said: Has nothing to do with it. It's been in the 50's and even 60's. You won't accumulate moderate snow with crappy dynamics/34-35 degrees and daytime given the setup even if it were Jan 15th I agree with crappy dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro - Kuchera 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 There's a deform band of 2"-3" an hour. I dont care what the city ground temp is, if it snows that hard, it will accumulate. Wherever the deform ccb sets up, will receive 6"-12"+. Right not, most models place that around NYC. As for the Euro, it has done these types of whacky precip cuts many times in these situations. I wouldn't worry about it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The model output (and subsequent measuring) is not for roads. Enough. We know it wont stick as well on major roads. We dont measure on the cross bronx. If you want to discuss the dynamics, fine. But saying the modeled snow totals wont happen because “roads” is tiresome. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: There's a deform band of 2"-3" an hour. I dont care what the city ground temp is, if it snows that hard, it will accumulate. Wherever the deform ccb sets up, will receive 6"-12"+. Right not, most models place that around NYC. As for the Euro, it has done these types of whacky precip cuts many times in these situations. I wouldn't worry about it. Post more and agree. I like 3-6 for NYC with the lower amounts in southern sections of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MJO812 said: Post more and agree. I like 3-6 for NYC with the lower amounts in southern sections of the area. Good luck man, hope this works out decently for the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If the Euro is right a lot of forecasts will bust badly especially for northern zones. I think the Euro is too far south though when comparing it to all the other models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So .5 to 1 inch hour will just melt everywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hi-res models pick up the banding better. Wherever that band sets up is gonna get clobbered. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, ag3 said: There's a deform band of 2"-3" an hour. I dont care what the city ground temp is, if it snows that hard, it will accumulate. Wherever the deform ccb sets up, will receive 6"-12"+. Right not, most models place that around NYC. As for the Euro, it has done these types of whacky precip cuts many times in these situations. I wouldn't worry about it. I agree but the UKMET is also mostly a non event. I worry when it's a couple models not on board. However it's 2 globals and we are under 24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If they issue weather warning for the city, what time would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I wouldn’t completely discount the EURO. It has support from UKIE. Definitely concerning trend here. Stay tuned 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Dunno, I don't think any MAJOR roadway in NYC (proper) will be terribly affected? Where the really heavy stuff sets up (of course this assuming the phase is clean and this explodes as some of the Short Rangers are alluding to), I would say the major highways are going to gunk up relatively quickly. If you have SN to SN-, then roadways are fine. But -and again this is an assumption which could bust- if the storm sets up in such a manner so as to dump some SN+, then roadways will quickly become rather nasty. This is why I was saying I would prepare as if you are going to take a hit, because to be caught off guard in something like that is not fun (IE, Feb 2013 - No I am not saying this is a Feb 2013 redux). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I agree but the UKMET is also mostly a non event. I worry when it's a couple models not on board. However it's 2 globals and we are under 24 hrs Aren't globals less reliable than mesos at this range? Also the Euro has definitely busted cold/south before. I'm not saying it's not a possibility but it seems extreme. It's crazy that less than 24 hours out we have such model disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Not to beat this horse to a second death, but here’s Amsterdam Ave on 11/15/2018. I checked the dailies for the month and the days prior were in 40s and 50s. We hadn’t had a freeze yet in 2018. Heat island, yes. It’s not the surface of the sun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hrrr has also been trending south the past 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR ever so slightly cooler, and inching south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, psv88 said: I wouldn’t completely discount the EURO. It has support from UKIE. Definitely concerning trend here. Stay tuned Yea i'd toss if completely alone but that's not the case. However, if mesos stay consistent and don't budge south by the next set of runs then I'd be more inclined to toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Aren't globals less reliable than mesos at this range? Also the Euro has definitely busted cold/south before. I'm not saying it's not a possibility but it seems extreme. I can't believe I'm saying this but I think anyone in the immediate metro area SOUTH of I287 is pretty safe at this point. North of there it gets more iffy. yeah that was my point I was trying to make-meso's might be better but I can't believe the Euro would bust this bad this close in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 snow likely wont be anything more than a talking point with this sounding in the city. this is 10z by the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, hooralph said: Not to beat this horse to a second death, but here’s Amsterdam Ave on 11/15/2018. I checked the dailies for the month and the days prior were in 40s and 50s. We hadn’t had a freeze yet in 2018. Heat island, yes. It’s not the surface of the sun. that was a great storm-it did help that it was mainly an overnight event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: I wouldn’t completely discount the EURO. It has support from UKIE. Definitely concerning trend here. Stay tuned I agree, however, the Ukie and Euro tend to follow each other. Downstream observations show a significant amount of juice with this storm. I would not completely discount, but, I would also say just keep in mind and watch Short Rangers currently. If they begin to back up the Euro, then I would put true stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, USCG RS said: I agree, however, the Ukie and Euro tend to follow each other. Downstream observations show a significant amount of juice with this storm. I would not completely discount, but, I would also say just keep in mind and watch Short Rangers currently. If they begin to back up the Euro, then I would put true stock in it. Would be amazing if after all this time this misses to the south and hammers Coastal NJ while NYC see's light white rain. I just don't see it happening though but have to keep on eye on this trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I THINK IT’S TIME I MENTION THAT WE MAY BE FIGHTING THE SUN ANGLE TOMORROW . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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