MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, the_other_guy said: This! How many times have we seen heavy snow after rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 New NAM....large banding signature and very strong storm in nice spot 6-12" for almost all of region... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Coastal marginal temps/mixing keep things at bay accumulation wise. it'll look nice for a period, you'll get some accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a lot of it will feel 'wasted'. It's still better than what it looked like a couple of days ago. This is game on north of the merritt/287. If it was March I'd agree but being mid February still, the city can really accumulate even in a marginal setup if the storm is dynamic enough outside of midtown Manhattan of course. I think 3-6 is a good call for the city right now, more just north of the city but it was higher potential IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Brian5671 said: do you really think city streets will be snow covered with temps 33-34? It might go below that with intense rates but no. It's a wait and see game but this looks way better for us then what I showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Northof78 said: New NAM....large banding signature and very strong storm in nice spot 6-12" for almost all of region... It's going to be slightly lower than 10:1 but we should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: do you really think city streets will be snow covered with temps 33-34? It's gotta be ripping in order to do so and that looks like a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 There's gonna be some shifts north today. I wouldn't get all giddy in the city. Happens every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Franklin0529 said: There's gonna be some shifts north today. I wouldn't get all giddy in the city. Happens every time yeah I think we are seeing the usual ticks north within 24 hrs...NAM was slightly north of 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's going to be slightly lower than 10:1 but we should be good. I could see it being 5:1 in and around the city and parts of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: There's gonna be some shifts north today. I wouldn't get all giddy in the city. Happens every time Yes but for the city they have some room now for those shifts. I think north 287 is a guaranteed 6-12 range… 4-8 for city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 As long as ground temps are 33/34F or less, I think we are close to 10/9:1 with very heavy rates, favorable growth, and 850 temps of between -3 and -6F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: There's gonna be some shifts north today. I wouldn't get all giddy in the city. Happens every time Okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yes but for the city they have some room now for those shifts. I think north 287 is a guaranteed 6-12 range… 4-8 for city Sell the 4-8" in the city. 2-4" tops, which is better then it was looking 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Okay The nam already did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Sell the 4-8" in the city. 2-4" tops, which is better then it was looking 2 days ago Think you can go in the middle of the two ranges and be fine. This storm is very juicy, but very marginal too. Snow board will do better than 'on ground' It won't look or feel like 3-6" for a bunch of folks in the city (more than manhattan too, brooklyn et al). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: The nam already did lol Nam is sometimes too amped but 2-4 is a good call. Upton will probably go with a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's what they do here unless it becomes excessive with the amt of days off This is what is should be. Ours justified it as kids still get the thrill of the snow day and will want to be outside (a rarity in today's world). It is also incredibly important to their development when they can play with the kids in the neighborhood outside. 16 minutes ago, Terraryzing87 said: Thankfully my district on the Island has done away with the option of remote for snow days. We really have seen that kids just cannot focus during online school for more than 45 minutes anyway. It is boring and there is no collaboration. Rather just have them off completely since when it is snowing anyway, I doubt they will be paying attention anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, NittanyWx said: Think you can go in the middle of the two ranges and be fine. This storm is very juicy, but very marginal too. Snow board will do better than 'on ground' You tried to warn 'em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 the snow always sticks if it falls hard enough. a lot of you will be surprised, we go through this all the time. if streets are wet, it isn't snowing that hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 When Kuchera is 6-10", 6-10" it is (assuming output is right to begin with), and warm ground, marginal airmass, sun angle, etc. (just as always is outside of the pavement in Times Square) is overrated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: You tried to warn 'em! So now we should all worry about that ? Let's enjoy the storm and see what happens during the storm. Just yesterday majority of people on here didn't even think it would snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: This is what is should be. Ours justified it as kids still get the thrill of the snow day and will want to be outside (a rarity in today's world). It is also incredibly important to their development when they can play with the kids in the neighborhood outside. We really have seen that kids just cannot focus during online school for more than 45 minutes anyway. It is boring and there is no collaboration. Rather just have them off completely since when it is snowing anyway, I doubt they will be paying attention anyway. OT but one of the wort decision ever to stick with that for as long as they did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is sometimes too amped but 2-4 is a good call. Upton will probably go with a warning N NYC, N Shore, N of I-80 sure. S Shore still not looking great. Tough call still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, jm1220 said: N NYC, N Shore, N of I-80 sure. S Shore still not looking great. Tough call still. South shore is looking better than a yesterday. I don't get all the negative comments. Just enjoy the snow . It might be the last snow of the season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MJO812 said: South shore is looking better than a yesterday. I don't get all the negative comments. Just enjoy the snow . It might be the last snow of the season . What? You said great pattern for a month! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Think city/coast good for 3-6”. Less south, more north. Inland 6-12”. Pretty standard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: This is what is should be. Ours justified it as kids still get the thrill of the snow day and will want to be outside (a rarity in today's world). It is also incredibly important to their development when they can play with the kids in the neighborhood outside. Between too many kids on "smart" phones, and an out of touch, ill informed, top down bureaucracy, public education is getting to the point of being trashed beyond any salvation. Give the kids the day off if the weather warrants and enjoy it! Speaking of, I'm getting a little worried about the southerly trends. Much more, and I go from the bullseye to the screw zone. Those cutoffs are pretty sharp once you head into the Poconos and the upstate of NY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: What? You said great pattern for a month! Well things change Pna going negative Nao going positive Ao rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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