Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Eps follows the op Look how far south the lows are now. What a change. Todays model runs will be telling,,,,,weenies say ENOUGH with the Southern Trend and a slight shift North is okay with us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, bluewave said: I agree with the WPC that the exact track of the low may not be known until the models runs later today into this evening when the actual convection over the Southeast is better initialized. Gotcha! Thanks for clarifying that. also @MJO812 the EPS mean is definitely better the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, lee59 said: I think a good call, at this point, for Long Island is a general 3-6 inches. Some areas, especially the North shore could see 12 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think they made a good point about further storm track shifts with the model runs later today into 0z due to possible changes with convection over the Southeast. So we’ll monitor how the CAMS like the HRRR handle this convection vs the actual radar trends later today. FWIW the 12z HRRR is running and looks quite similar (there is less snow in the Poconos) to the 6z run. Like you said the 18z run will provide a better look at the evolution of this convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, suzook said: Some areas, especially the North shore could see 12 inches. I’ve had 2-4” for N Shore since Friday night. I’d await 12z runs and would adjust upward to 4-8” if models stay consistent. 12” isn’t happening on the N shore with the fast movement and temps when precip starts imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, North and West said: We literally had 2’+ three years ago and may get snow tomorrow. No doubt global warming is occurring, but that’s a bit dramatic. . I’m not getting into debate on global warming. It’s ridiculous. Like the 5th winter in a row of significant warmth. Frankly, Im dont care. But I dont deny reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Tatamy said: FWIW the 12z HRRR is running and looks quite similar to the 6z run. Like you said the 18z run will provide a better look at the evolution of this convection. 12z definitely south of the 6z run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I’ve had 2-4” for N Shore since Friday night. I’d await 12z runs and would adjust upward to 4-8” if models stay consistent. 12” isn’t happening on the N shore with the fast movement and temps when precip starts imo. It can happen, especially with the south trends. There's a ton of moisture with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wow, I had all but given up on this yesterday afternoon then see the thread title saying "6-12" for many" and couldn't believe my eyes. I'd still be wary of any last minute north trends (I don't buy suppression) but the trend and model consensus is undeniable. Suffice to say that the 12z suite is going to be critical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 My wife who is an Art teacher with the DOE told me that she heard that schools might be closed tomorrow and everyone will be doing remote teaching. She will find out more later 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My wife who is an Art teacher with the DOE told me that she heard that schools might be closed tomorrow and everyone will be doing remote teaching. She will find out more later Just close, remote learning doesn't work. Let kids play in the snow. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastKU Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 My wife who is an Art teacher with the DOE told me that she heard that schools might be closed tomorrow and everyone will be doing remote teaching. She will find out more later I’ve been teaching for 23 years and I’ll probably hear from your wife before my actual school. It’s usually a foot plus for a “snow day” but seeing as how those no longer exist maybe we have a shot at remote. NYC already send out hazardous travel alerts. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My wife who is an Art teacher with the DOE told me that she heard that schools might be closed tomorrow and everyone will be doing remote teaching. She will find out more later I work for the DOE (Central employee). The last storm (the barely 2" one) we had I was told we could remote work... 7 minutes after I arrived at the office... So I fully expect some news, hopefully before the work day starts this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Then the question becomes is how much snow will actually accumulate in a place like NYC if the HRRR forecast of 34° to 35° is correct when the changeover back to snow occurs? Looks like nyc has a good shot at 4+ in a hostile pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Overnight, the global and mesoscale models ramped up snowfall amounts for New York City. However, the forecast low temperature on the MOS and NBE remained at 35 or above. My assumption is that the actual temperature during the height of the storm will fall to 33 or 34 in New York City (up to 1 sigma below the 12z NBE estimate). Storm total ratios will likely be well below 10:1. At 2/12 12z, the NBE had increased its estimated snowfall for New York City to 3.9". NBE: Historic data argues against the 10" or above amounts showing up on some maps (10:1 ratios). Historic Data: Based on a combination of the guidance adjusted for ratios, assumption about temperatures, and historic data, my thinking is that New York City will see 3"-6" of heavy wet snow (1" to perhaps 3" had been my initial thinking prior to the overnight guidance). The snow will fall moderately to heavily, but there will also be a lot of melting holding down amounts. Outside the City, a general 6"-10" looks plausible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Then the question becomes is how much snow will actually accumulate in a place like NYC if the HRRR forecast of 34° to 35° is correct when the changeover back to snow occurs? Unless you have temps into the mid 20s (which are not expected with this event) streets and sidewalks in Manhattan are likely to be mainly just wet. Neighborhoods in the outer boroughs can get accumulations in this setup however that will be highly dependent on what the specific surface is, if it’s normally shaded during the day, and if it accumulates water on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 33 minutes ago, suzook said: Some areas, especially the North shore could see 12 inches. taking under on that 12" by a significant margin 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Overnight, the global and mesoscale models ramped up snowfall amounts for New York City. However, the forecast low temperature on the MOS and NBE remained at 35 or above. My assumption is that the actual temperature during the height of the storm will fall to 33 or 34 in New York City (up to 1 sigma below the 12z NBE estimate). Storm total ratios will likely be well below 10:1. At 2/12 12z, the NBE had increased its estimated snowfall for New York City to 3.9". NBE: Historic data argues against the 10" or above amounts showing up on some maps (10:1 ratios). Historic Data: Based on a combination of the guidance adjusted for ratios, assumption about temperatures, and historic data, my thinking is that New York City will see 3"-6" of heavy wet snow (1" to perhaps 3" had been my initial thinking prior to the overnight guidance). The snow will fall moderately to heavily, but there will also be a lot of melting holding down amounts. Outside the City, a general 6"-10" looks plausible. Similar thinking, pending 12z adjustments in track. I like this a lot in the 287-84-merritt-91 box 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m not getting into debate on global warming. It’s ridiculous. Like the 5th winter in a row of significant warmth. Frankly, Im dont care. But I dont deny reality. I was agreeing with you. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just close, remote learning doesn't work. Let kids play in the snow. If Covid taught us anything, kids know remote learning’s a farce.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Coastal marginal temps/mixing keep things at bay accumulation wise. it'll look nice for a period, you'll get some accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a lot of it will feel 'wasted'. It's still better than what it looked like a couple of days ago. This is game on north of the merritt/287. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Just close, remote learning doesn't work. Let kids play in the snow. That's what they do here unless it becomes excessive with the amt of days off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terraryzing87 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: Just close, remote learning doesn't work. Let kids play in the snow. Thankfully my district on the Island has done away with the option of remote for snow days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 That's what they do here unless it becomes excessive with the amt of days offJust let everyone have a day off for mental health and to watch nature if possible.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nam being north leads me to believe the euro is out to lunch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Coastal marginal temps/mixing keep things at bay accumulation wise. it'll look nice for a period, you'll get some accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a lot of it will feel 'wasted'. It's still better than what it looked like a couple of days ago. This is game on north of the merritt/287. So you are not going with the NWS ? I think 2-5 is a good call for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Allsnow said: Nam being north leads me to believe the euro is out to lunch Yep euro and eps is way too south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Coastal marginal temps/mixing keep things at bay accumulation wise. it'll look nice for a period, you'll get some accumulation on grassy surfaces, but a lot of it will feel 'wasted'. It's still better than what it looked like a couple of days ago. This is game on north of the merritt/287. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MJO812 said: So you are not going with the NWS ? I think 2-5 is a good call for NYC. do you really think city streets will be snow covered with temps 33-34? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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