weatherpruf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 28 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have to admit I did not see this one coming. I still think your going to see the highest totals just outside the urban heat island and the immediate coast do to the marginal airmass at the start. But anyone even urban areas, that gets into the ccb with 2”+ hour rates will have no problem accumulating. I’m thinking big giant flakes. This is going to be a pure snow globe event. Hopefully minimal tree damage and power outages. Isn't this really the time of year when this kinda thing can happen though....read somewhere the NA's used to call it the snow moon or something; my neighbor's birthday is coming up and he said all his life it has been snow near his birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6Z.HRRR. then 00z/excessive HRRR, and the 7Z/12 NBM. Definitely concerned about what happens south of I80. I just dont know... too much uncertainty because of sfc temps which I doubt drop below 32 or 33. AND no guarantees on area best lift. Model variability still looks large to me. Back at 10A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Isn't this really the time of year when this kinda thing can happen though....read somewhere the NA's used to call it the snow moon or something; my neighbor's birthday is coming up and he said all his life it has been snow near his birthday.First half of February is always the snowiest here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Isn't this really the time of year when this kinda thing can happen though....read somewhere the NA's used to call it the snow moon or something; my neighbor's birthday is coming up and he said all his life it has been snow near his birthday. I have an early January bday and up until recently always had snow on ground or falling within 24 hours of it. As someone else said, February was always best for snow, but it has warmed so much its all out the window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 I would be cautious currently north of I84, there is a sharp cutoff around there on almost all models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Expecting anywhere from 7-12 inches of snow here in western MA. Currently 22 here, 30 back home in HPN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z euro looks even flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Heisy said: 6z euro looks even flatter . Yep wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think a good call, at this point, for Long Island is a general 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 43 minutes ago, Albedoman said: 8 hours ago, Albedoman said: I admire you sticking to your call but the thing that bothers me in this run is there is one hell of a discrepancy of 6 inches vs 17 inches. Thats nearly an inch or so more of available precipitable water for snow making. LIke I said another 8 hour run or so should iron some of it out. But even if I took half of that extra precip out this run, it would still meet winter storm warning easily. 8-12+ in seems more in line if this trend continues Yep, Mt Holly went with my old fart thoughts. We actually got our warning in the LV before the snow event Time to celebrate- the warning drought is over LOL I also feel much better after reading their forecast discussion about the explosive snow growth too as the temps fall to near or below 30 degrees adds to the accumulations. Folks, with this much dynamics in play now, can we get some thundersnow too? That would be the icing on the cake. Will Jim Cantore show up somewhere in the LV? Analogy storm Feb 1983 snow storm fits well at this time as I remember the LV received 3-5 in an hour snow rates with 24" of snow. My parents were stuck in that storm and was their first taste of a blizzard in the LV. I was in my 20's at the time and did not mind. Seems plausible at this juncture that this storm will somewhat similar with its formation with the LP sitting near the sweet spot at the Chesapeake after the transfer and getting stronger. Snow accumulation amounts should be much less for this storm but the snow rates will be up there for sure for a few hours. Visibility will be down for sure with the monster flakes. Been long time since we have seen this type of snow storm event unfold in the LV. 1996 and 2016 LV blizzards were different as the they were both much longer in duration, the temps were much colder and the size of the flakes were smaller. This storm event may unfold like 1983 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1983_North_American_blizzard#:~:text=Twenty-four-hour snowfall records,snow fell in one hour. This actually reminds me more of the February 1994 storm-- the first one-- with very heavy snow for 3-4 hours with thundersnow during the day in which we accumulated around 8 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 The bigger risk now is this south/suppression/flat trend continues, not too far north..need to see trend stop now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep wtf Relax @MJO812 lol…. Only model what that depiction! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: The bigger risk now is this south/suppression/flat trend continues, not too far north..need to see trend stop now Nah I'm not concerned about that at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This is maybe the biggest move I’ve seen the euro make at this range in my life. It’s up there . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I have an early January bday and up until recently always had snow on ground or falling within 24 hours of it. As someone else said, February was always best for snow, but it has warmed so much its all out the windowWe literally had 2’+ three years ago and may get snow tomorrow. No doubt global warming is occurring, but that’s a bit dramatic.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This actually reminds me more of the February 1994 storm-- the first one-- with very heavy snow for 3-4 hours with thundersnow during the day in which we accumulated around 8 inches of snow.One of my all time faves. Underrated.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 29 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Isn't this really the time of year when this kinda thing can happen though....read somewhere the NA's used to call it the snow moon or something; my neighbor's birthday is coming up and he said all his life it has been snow near his birthday. February has traditionally been the snowiest month, but March is when "anything" can "happen"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nah I'm not concerned about that at all If you live north of 84, maybe even 80, you should be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, North and West said: One of my all time faves. Underrated. . and very unexpected, I sure wish I had a camera back then! The ground went from 0 snow to 8 inches right in front of our eyes and it was the first time I actually heard thundersnow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Nah I'm not concerned about that at all Me neither. At this point we can afford that late last minute push north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If we get a major snowstorm tomorrow then two lessons, sometimes the NAM can lead the pack...and they don't ALWAYS trend north........... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, North and West said: We literally had 2’+ three years ago and may get snow tomorrow. No doubt global warming is occurring, but that’s a bit dramatic. . It does seem our biggest snowstorms moved to around January 20th for a few years there, it's been awhile for one of these big ones around the middle of February. I'm trying to remember the last time we had big 10 incher after February 10th....I can't recall. I guess it was 10 years ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, North and West said: One of my all time faves. Underrated. . One of the best parts of it is that while it was snowing hard on Tuesday, consensus was growing for the same thing to happen on Friday, which of course it did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It does seem our biggest snowstorms moved to around January 20th for a few years there, it's been awhile for one of these big ones around the middle of February. I'm trying to remember the last time we had big 10 incher after February 10th....I can't recall. I guess it was 10 years ago? Not sure, but that’s a natural variation, IMO. February has always been the *most likely* snowstorm time for here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 One of the best parts of it is that while it was snowing hard on Tuesday, consensus was growing for the same thing to happen on Friday, which of course it did.Imagine you were 11, watch TWC for years, after the string of winters we had, and then that happens. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep wtf Okay I buy the south trend it can stop now, please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Eps follows the op Look how far south the lows are now. What a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think the WPC has a great point about what the convection does in the Southeast later today. The HRRR is more robust with this convection and the low is further north than some of the other guidance. So the CAMS may be the way to go who we see how well the convection is initialized later today. So this could mean last minute model changes right down to the wire later today. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd So then what exactly are you implying? You saying the 6z euro is crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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