TriPol Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m in. City will receive 6 - 9 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 there is a stacked, strengthening mid-level ULL south of LI... this often fosters the development of a CCB in the NYC area. we have seen significant shifts today that has placed NYC firmly in the axis of heaviest snow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just for giggles, here's my guess as to what we'll see from the NWS at 4 am: I'd guess that the NWS-Philly will upgrade snowfall amounts at 4 am and go with advisories for 2-5" for most of CNJ (Hunterdon/Somerset/Middlesex/Mercer/Monmouth) and for Bucks, Montco, Berks and maybe W. Chester and warnings for 6-10" or more for all of the counties north of 78 in PA/NJ (Poconos/Lehigh Valley and Sussex/Morris/Warren) and that the NWS-NYC will also go with advisories for 2-5" for Union/Essex/Hudson, NYC/LI and warnings for 6-10" for Passaic/Bergen and SE NY north of the Bronx and all of CT. This is probably the hardest I've disagreed with the NWS ever or at least since Nov-18, which was somewhat similar with 1-2" of sloppy snow/mix predicted until the event was underway, but then everyone in CNJ/NNJ/NYC etc. got 4-8" and a nightmare on the roads as the snow hit around noon, like a wall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there is a stacked, strengthening mid-level ULL south of LI... this often fosters the development of a CCB in the NYC area. we have seen significant shifts today that has placed NYC firmly in the axis of heaviest snow That run checks the boxes. Later today hopefully more/better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter Storm warnings up for all of Westchester. Watches for the city and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Thought it would be helpful to have all of the relevant model snowfall maps from 0Z in one place, as I'm constantly trying to remember where they might be in a thread especially when looking back at a storm which I sometimes do. I'm only including the 10:1 ratio maps for brevity and because those at least give one the total precip as snow, too, which is important. Pretty impressive all together. I think we've all discussed ad nauseum how for this storm, especially for areas S of 78 and east of maybe the NJ TPK, surface temps are likely to be in the 33-35F range, leading to melting/compaction and there could be a warm nose aloft for some period leading to some sleet, both of which would make the snow ratio produced up high in the sky (which should be >10:1 given great dynamics in the DGZ) something perhaps considerably less on the ground as accumulated snow (maybe 7-8:1 and could be even lower at the coast), so take these maps as starting points for how much snow might actually accumulate. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Winter storm watch hers 5-8 inches 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nws forecast for Mt Vernon ny. Very bullish. Tuesday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 22 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, binbisso said: Nws forecast for Mt Vernon ny. Very bullish. Tuesday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 7am. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 36. Wind chill values between 20 and 25. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 22 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. We are in a great spot for this one. Northern bronx,southern westchester county folk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 All 3 nam held serve at 6z. Even upped totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAMed! The 6Z NAM looks a lot like the 0Z Euro and is still the coldest model at the surface with temps around 32F along 95 during the snowfall (so Kuchera ratios are in the 8:1 range for 95 and 10:1 or more N of 78). Nice start to the 6Z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: We are in a great spot for this one. Northern bronx,southern westchester county folk. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 First WSW in 2 years 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: First WSW in 2 years We Finally got one.!!.. Every model in agreement pretty much. NYC gets lambasted with heavy wet snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 hours ago, RU848789 said: Just for giggles, here's my guess as to what we'll see from the NWS at 4 am: I'd guess that the NWS-Philly will upgrade snowfall amounts at 4 am and go with advisories for 2-5" for most of CNJ (Hunterdon/Somerset/Middlesex/Mercer/Monmouth) and for Bucks, Montco, Berks and maybe W. Chester and warnings for 6-10" or more for all of the counties north of 78 in PA/NJ (Poconos/Lehigh Valley and Sussex/Morris/Warren) and that the NWS-NYC will also go with advisories for 2-5" for Union/Essex/Hudson, NYC/LI and warnings for 6-10" for Passaic/Bergen and SE NY north of the Bronx and all of CT. This is probably the hardest I've disagreed with the NWS ever or at least since Nov-18, which was somewhat similar with 1-2" of sloppy snow/mix predicted until the event was underway, but then everyone in CNJ/NNJ/NYC etc. got 4-8" and a nightmare on the roads as the snow hit around noon, like a wall. So, NWS-Philly issued warnings for Poconos/Sussex for 9-12" of snow, for the Lehigh Valley, Morris, Warren for 7-10" of snow and for Berks, NW Bucks, Hunterdon and Somerset for 4-7" of snow. However, they inexplicably left Middlesex out of the warning (or at least the northern half, which will likely do as well as southern Somerset/Hunterdon), putting Middlesex, Mercer, Lower Bucks and Montco (but no Monmouth) under advisories for 2-4" of snow. These are all fairly close to what I was thinking above. Also, the NWS-NYC issued watches for Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI for 5-8" and warnings for everywhere north of there for 7-10" of snow, which makes sense to me, even if those amounts are a little bit higher than I expected (I don't like to guess too high and felt I was already out on a limb predicting much more snow than they were) - they are in line with what models are showing. NWS-Philly just updated their map below as did NWS-NYC... Also, revising my initial guess of 2" for my house from Saturday night to 7.2" as my final prediction for my house (usually make these ~24 hrs before the snow starts). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 54 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That run checks the boxes. Later today hopefully more/better. see I told you stacked lows are better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
203whiteout Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Thought it would be helpful to have all of the relevant model snowfall maps from 0Z in one place, as I'm constantly trying to remember where they might be in a thread especially when looking back at a storm which I sometimes do. I'm only including the 10:1 ratio maps for brevity and because those at least give one the total precip as snow, too, which is important. Pretty impressive all together. I think we've all discussed ad nauseum how for this storm, especially for areas S of 78 and east of maybe the NJ TPK, surface temps are likely to be in the 33-35F range, leading to melting/compaction and there could be a warm nose aloft for some period leading to some sleet, both of which would make the snow ratio produced up high in the sky (which should be >10:1 given great dynamics in the DGZ) something perhaps considerably less on the ground as accumulated snow (maybe 7-8:1 and could be even lower at the coast), so take these maps as starting points for how much snow might actually accumulate. BDR and coastal CT looks good as of 0z..from that blend I’d go 8-12 . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: So, NWS-NYC issued watches for Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI for 5-8" and warnings for everywhere north of there for 7-10" of snow, which makes sense to me, even if it's a bit higher than I expected. While the NWS-Philly hasn't updated yet... I'm just thinking back to the 80s and 90s when we had no access to models (pre internet) and we had a forecast of 1-3 inches one day and woke up the next morning with a forecast of 6-8 or more lol. It rarely happened but when it did we treasured it and remembered it forever. Such a storm happened in February 1991 when we were predicted to get less than an inch of snow at the tail end of a frontal passage and the next thing we knew the low stalled SE of the Hamptons and it kept snowing for 36 straight hours in temps of 33-34 degrees, we ended up with almost 10 inches of snow-- most of which accumulated at night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6z gfs crushes city. Another tic south 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 25 minutes ago, binbisso said: 6z gfs crushes city. Another tic south Philly goes from 3 inches to 13 in one 6 hour run? That's to unstable for my liking, plus I hate this south trend, enough LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: So, NWS-Philly issued warnings for Poconos/Sussex for 9-12" of snow, for the Lehigh Valley, Morris, Warren for 7-10" of snow and for Berks, NW Bucks, Hunterdon and Somerset for 4-7" of snow. However, they inexplicably left Middlesex out of the warning (or at least the northern half, which will likely do as well as southern Somerset/Hunterdon), putting Middlesex, Mercer, Lower Bucks and Montco (but no Monmouth) under advisories for 2-4" of snow. These are all fairly close to what I was thinking above. Also, the NWS-NYC issued watches for Union/Essex/Hudson and NYC/LI for 5-8" and warnings for everywhere north of there for 7-10" of snow, which makes sense to me, even if those amounts are a little bit higher than I expected (I don't like to guess too high and felt I was already out on a limb predicting much more snow than they were) - they are in line with what models are showing. NWS-Philly just updated their map below as did NWS-NYC... wow 12-18 is a lot for such a quick moving storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Philly goes from 3 inches to 13 in one 6 hour run? That's to unstable for my liking, plus I hate this south trend, enough LOL. nooooo we really need a big one down here it looks like the pattern gets boring after this. this is actually the peak of snowfall season. most of our historic snowstorms occurred in this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 6z gfs..the icon and the nogaps crushes nyc,along with king euro and nam. Building confidence in a nyc lucky strike. 6+ across the whole area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 On 2/8/2024 at 2:23 PM, Northof78 said: Latest EURO, GFS give the NYC Metro advisory or warning level snows, others more mix. But the liklihood of a signficant winter storm is high. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Philly goes from 3 inches to 13 in one 6 hour run? That's to unstable for my liking, plus I hate this south trend, enough LOL. This is 10:1 so might need to halve this.... 6-7 inches is still really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This is 10:1 so might need to halve this.... 6-7 inches is still really good. I agree. Isolated areas of higher amounts obviously. This is a intense banding event and no model is going to pinpoint placement of those bands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wow gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I have to admit I did not see this one coming. I still think your going to see the highest totals just outside the urban heat island and the immediate coast do to the marginal airmass at the start. But anyone even urban areas, that gets into the ccb with 2”+ hour rates will have no problem accumulating. I’m thinking big giant flakes. This is going to be a pure snow globe event. Hopefully minimal tree damage and power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 hours ago, Albedoman said: I admire you sticking to your call but the thing that bothers me in this run is there is one hell of a discrepancy of 6 inches vs 17 inches. Thats nearly an inch or so more of available precipitable water for snow making. LIke I said another 8 hour run or so should iron some of it out. But even if I took half of that extra precip out this run, it would still meet winter storm warning easily. 8-12+ in seems more in line if this trend continues Yep, Mt Holly went with my old fart thoughts. We actually got our warning in the LV before the snow event Time to celebrate- the warning drought is over LOL I also feel much better after reading their forecast discussion about the explosive snow growth too as the temps fall to near or below 30 degrees adds to the accumulations. Folks, with this much dynamics in play now, can we get some thundersnow too? That would be the icing on the cake. Will Jim Cantore show up somewhere in the LV? Analogy storm Feb 1983 snow storm fits well at this time as I remember the LV received 3-5 in an hour snow rates with 24" of snow. My parents were stuck in that storm and was their first taste of a blizzard in the LV. I was in my 20's at the time and did not mind. Seems plausible at this juncture that this storm will somewhat similar with its formation with the LP sitting near the sweet spot at the Chesapeake after the transfer and getting stronger. Snow accumulation amounts should be much less for this storm but the snow rates will be up there for sure for a few hours. Visibility will be down for sure with the monster flakes. Been long time since we have seen this type of snow storm event unfold in the LV. 1996 and 2016 LV blizzards were different as the they were both much longer in duration, the temps were much colder and the size of the flakes were smaller. This storm event may unfold like 1983 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_1983_North_American_blizzard#:~:text=Twenty-four-hour snowfall records,snow fell in one hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I have to admit I did not see this one coming. I still think your going to see the highest totals just outside the urban heat island and the immediate coast do to the marginal airmass at the start. But anyone even urban areas, that gets into the ccb with 2”+ hour rates will have no problem accumulating. I’m thinking big giant flakes. This is going to be a pure snow globe event. Hopefully minimal tree damage and power outages. I would start with 3-5 for NYC and then raise it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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