eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This storm will probably meet the latitude-dependent definition of bombogenesis but not the 24mb drop in 24 hours. It's also forming in a relatively low pressure environment, so the absolute pressure is not as impressive as if there were a strong HP in the vicinity. It could be a fun few hours on Tue. morning! Vertical lift is impressive. Deep saturated column, favorable mid-level tracks. Other than the warm antecedent conditions, the biggest limitation (and slight disappointment) is the short duration. This thing will likely be in and out in less than 12 hours. Accumulating snow for less than that. And heavy snow for an even shorter period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think straight to warning for some locations just north of the city and a rare near term watch for the city and at least the northern LI zones might be a prudent course of action since there's another model cycle to look at and make a decision on where to go warning and where to go advisory for the highest population zones. Might be better than going straight to advisory and having to upgrade to a warning in places. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Probably January 4, 2018. Jan. 4, 2018 - An intense nor'easter created whiteout conditions late in the morning into the early afternoon, with snow accumulating close to ten inches by the time it ended later in the afternoon. Today's snow easily broke the previous record for snowfall on this date (4.0" in 1988) - and today's accumulation of 9.8" was slightly more than last winter's biggest snowfall (9.4" on Feb. 9). Temperatures were in the mid-20s throughout the storm and, combined with winds that gusted close to 35 mph, produced wind chills around 10°. Today was also the tenth consecutive day in which the high was colder than 32°, making this the longest such streak since one of 12 days in January 2003. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: This storm will probably meet the latitude-dependent definition of bombogenesis but not the 24mb drop in 24 hours. It's also forming in a relatively low pressure environment, so the absolute pressure is not as impressive as if there were a strong HP in the vicinity. It could be a fun few hours on Tue. morning! Vertical lift is impressive. Deep saturated column, favorable mid-level tracks. Other than the warm antecedent conditions, the biggest limitation (and slight disappointment) is the short duration. This thing will likely be in and out in less than 12 hours. Accumulating snow for less than that. And heavy snow for an even shorter period. and what happens if the storm stalls or slows down.......? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, NEG NAO said: and what happens if the storm stalls or slows down.......? It's not going to slow down. It's a quick mover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Hopefully no last minute north trends tommorow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's not going to slow down. It's a quick mover. surprise potential is high along with the bust potential with this storm IMO since no one seems to have a handle on it yet...more questions then answers so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: surprise potential is high along with the bust potential with this storm IMO since no one seems to have a handle on it yet...more questions then answers so far There is nothing blocking this storm or stalling it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: There is nothing blocking this storm or stalling it. maybe BUT will be interesting nowcasting Tuesday morning using radar........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Uggh. Maybe. Such a tough forecast for NYC. Fingers crossed! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Uggh. Maybe. Such a tough forecast for NYC. Fingers crossed! What's interesting is that to read the last few pages of this thread, one could think it's just a matter of just how big our upside surprise will be, with the chance of minimal snow being mostly dismissed. But I don't see Upton, or anyone else responsible for informing the public, budging from the same 1-2" for LI that they've had for days. In the past, while this is sometimes due to those folks being well aware of what everyone here is seeing, but being cautious for now before sounding the alarm, more often than not they don't ever budge and are correct. So I'm curbing my enthusiasm and if I get a nice surprise on Tuesday, that'll be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: What's interesting is that to read the last few pages of this thread, one could think it's just a matter of just how big our upside surprise will be, with the chance of minimal snow being mostly dismissed. But I don't see Upton, or anyone else responsible for informing the public, budging from the same 1-2" for LI that they've had for days. In the past, while this is sometimes due to those folks being well aware of what everyone here is seeing, but being cautious for now before sounding the alarm, more often than not they don't ever budge and are correct. So I'm curbing my enthusiasm and if I get a nice surprise on Tuesday, that'll be great. They only update 2-3 times a day. Their next update will change. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 54 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The north shore of LI up into SNE could get really rocked as this bombs out. Yes. This could quickly become a sticky situation. Those commuting need to keep this in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Uggh. Maybe. Such a tough forecast for NYC. Fingers crossed! NYC and LI are going to get rocked. I know it's hard to believe.... But I firmly believe this is coming - and not just because I want it lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Keep wishcasting those 10:1 snowmaps lol I'm not wish casting anything. I'll be shocked with 2-3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: They only update 2-3 times a day. Their next update will change. Relax. Relax? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Relax? Sit in an unrestrained position and relieve yourself of worries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I'm not wish casting anything. I'll be shocked with 2-3" You still got weenied lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think people are gonna like the 00z euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: You still got weenied lol Not surprised. You shouldn't be either rjay. We been here long enough to know his game lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 0z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Would be something if this storm winds up suppressed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro drops the hammer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: I think people are gonna like the 00z euro. do tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro = 12.8 for my area - Mt. Holly forecast = Little or No Snow Accumulation - can't make this stuff up.... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, rickrd said: 0z Euro Yikeee-zees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Keep wishcasting those 10:1 snowmaps lol I understand what you're saying but you're not adjusting to what the models are showing tn. NYC is not on the southern fringe of the snow anymore. They're on the southern fringe of the heavy stuff bc the models are coming in south and therefor colder. We could def see bumps north on the models tomorrow but what happens if we see more bumps south? Do you hold onto your thoughts just for the sake of being stubborn? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wow Euro. Makes you wonder if the HRRR was onto something with the big solution. Tough forecast obviously ... 12z model runs should give us a better idea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, NEG NAO said: Euro = 12.8 for my area - Mt. Holly forecast = Little or No Snow Accumulation - can't make this stuff up.... They only update twice a day. there will be new updates in morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, rickrd said: 0z Euro Hard to ignore that 48 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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