psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Still sticking with my 1-3” call. Expecting that bump north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Okx briefing highlights the areas of concern. Check slide 2. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/02112024pm_winterstorm.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Is December 19 2008 a good analog for this storm? I know we live in a warmer world now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Verbatim it's starting to look really promising especially for northern NYC/northern LI but we've seen this song and dance so many times and I am fearful of the typical north bump at the last minute. I understand if it was just one model but every model and ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Is December 19 2008 a good analog for this storm? I know we live in a warmer world now. Dec 25 2002 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Good things are going to happen when you have a sub 980 low southeast of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I understand if it was just one model but every model and ensembles? Yes there could still be a tick in either direction another 30-50 miles since we are still over 24 hours out. Unfortunately it's usually a late tick north with these. I'd want to be 30+ miles north of where the models have the gradient now to feel too comfortable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Still sticking with my 1-3” call. Expecting that bump north Smart money says this probably sucks for us and around the city but every once in a while we get thrown a bone. Keep hope alive I guess. Having some snow cover like we should in February will be a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good things are going to happen when you have a sub 980 low southeast of LI. Not with a crap airmass. You need it to pound to scour out the urban heat island. This is going to come down to rates or you’re going to waste allot of snow. Outside the city and the immediate coast, not as big a concern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good things are going to happen when you have a sub 980 low southeast of LI. Again-have to look at how the storm comes in, which is a primary cutting decently far north, the bad preceding airmass and the mid level low tracks. Those really determine our outcome more than the surface low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not with a crap airmass. You need it to pound to scour out the urban heat island. This is going to come down to rates or you’re going to waste allot of snow. Outside the city and the immediate coast, not as big a concern. The airmass is one concern but could be overcome with the right track and dynamics, to me the bigger concern is if we get a late north tick in the track of the primary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Kinda shocked how strong the storm is modeled, if that’s true many will flip to snow but no storm this year has been that strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 mid level pass is great for the metro… stacked 500/700/850mb lows with a CCB sig 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Kinda shocked how strong the storm is modeled, if that’s true many will flip to snow but no storm this year has been that strong If the low stays south of ACY and is that strong it will snow for most of the subforum. We'll see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tristateweatherFB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 No one posted the good old jma jma jma 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Damn, I'm looking at a potential foot+ up here if the best of these scenarios plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sref south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Won't be the first heavy snowfall following a 60⁰ Superbowl weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Won't be the first heavy snowfall following a 60⁰ Superbowl weekend. True. it does seem to be the time of year where you see some snow. Think the one in 2014 was my favorite; a paste job around 8-10 IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: True. it does seem to be the time of year where you see some snow. Think the one in 2014 was my favorite; a paste job around 8-10 IIRC. Best recent snow/superbowl combo was the nice moderate and relatively cold event during Tampa Bay's win a few years back. By the way - not since the '23 Jets has a defense given Mahomes so much trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nice bump up on the NBE for NYC and HPN. Temperatures for NYC remain uncomfortably warm, but hopefully we'll see cooler readings modeled later on for the height of the precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 0z will be pretty big-if the south trends keep up I would think amounts should go up decently around the city/I-80 corridor. But again dump any 10-1 map and be thrilled if this covers all the grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 0z will be pretty big-if the south trends keep up I would think amounts should go up decently around the city/I-80 corridor. But again dump any 10-1 map and be thrilled if this covers all the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The “sniff the rain” zone wherever that ends up will likely be a good place to be. This is an energetic system with a lot of moisture to work with. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Best recent snow/superbowl combo was the nice moderate and relatively cold event during Tampa Bay's win a few years back. By the way - not since the '23 Jets has a defense given Mahomes so much trouble. I actually don't know much about the NFL. I'm a soccer guy. The family is watching and they call me in for the commercials. I will catch the halftime show because my son is a fan of whoever it is playing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The “sniff the rain” zone wherever that ends up will likely be a good place to be. This is an energetic system with a lot of moisture to work with. Sniff zone could be the long island sound. Congrats Can 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Sniff zone could be the long island sound. Congrats Can 13 You and I not too far off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Sniff zone could be the long island sound. Congrats Can 13 Definitely could be. Fingers crossed, all we can do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 When you consider the fact the SREF is too far NW like 90% of the time thats scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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