uofmiami Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, psv88 said: Not buying 6” on the north shore. Hard sell on that. I’m 2-4” for N Shore. If we bust high, I won’t complain though. See what 00Z hi-res runs do with thermals, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nws point and click for southern Westchester is 1-3" for Mt Vernon, 2-4 for Eastchester and 3-7" for purchase. So a low of one inch to a high of 7 inches in a 10 mile area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Not buying 6” on the north shore. Hard sell on that. Yeah that's likely high, however another tick south, as long as the intensity remains, this can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, Northof78 said: NAM exists low off VA coast and SECS for the region... What am I looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, uofmiami said: I’m 2-4” for N Shore. If we bust high, I won’t complain though. See what 00Z hi-res runs do with thermals, etc. I think 2-3” possible on colder surfaces. Ground will be very warm so I see this as mainly a car topper event for us. Middle of the day, temps above freezing. Maybe 3” on grass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18z NAM cold and snowy NYC like 18z HRRR. Wow! I dont have an answer. NWS does I guess. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, wdrag said: 18z NAM cold and snowy NYC like 18z HRRR. Wow! I dont have an answer. NWS does I guess. USCG RS actually called this. Please see my reference a few posts back. He's usually spot on, so I am starting to think there is a chance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, wdrag said: 18z NAM cold and snowy NYC like 18z HRRR. Wow! I dont have an answer. NWS does I guess. NWS answer so far for NYC immediate metro = no watches or warnings and only light accumulation possible temps above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: 18z NAM cold and snowy NYC like 18z HRRR. Wow! I dont have an answer. NWS does I guess. I think the red flag is the national weather service high-end and low end probabilities this morning. For White Plains it had 9 inches as the high-end and 0 as the low end. That's a pretty big difference this close in. The answer probably lies somewhere in between but it can definitely go either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NWS just bumped coastal CT to 4 to 8. They must be considering this trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Fwiw, backtracking on his now deleted tweet earlier. Guess 18z spooked him. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I’m 2-4” for N Shore. If we bust high, I won’t complain though. See what 00Z hi-res runs do with thermals, etc. Maybe. It’ll be a close call here. If we get enough to cover the grass all the way it’ll be a big win. The surface isn’t the only problem with this, there are warm layers around 800mb that might keep us sleet for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Lol that was a quick bump from 5 to 7 for coastal CT. I am 1 town north but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 everything continues to trend south. seems like models overdid the strength of the vort. not overly surprised, happens quite a bit in the short range 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Winter Storm Warning just issued for my area from 6pm tomorrow to 1pm Tuesday for heavy snow. 6" - 10" expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Reggie held for the most part. More around NYC and Jersey a little less LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 17 minutes ago, psv88 said: I think 2-3” possible on colder surfaces. Ground will be very warm so I see this as mainly a car topper event for us. Middle of the day, temps above freezing. Maybe 3” on grass? Just now, jm1220 said: Maybe. It’ll be a close call here. If we get enough to cover the grass all the way it’ll be a big win. The surface isn’t the only problem with this, there are warm layers around 800mb that might keep us sleet for a while. Agree, it’ll be mostly on grass. 2” probably reality but can’t rule out 4” if rates are heavy enough. Having overcast skies these last 2 days helps a bit with solar radiation on the soil & today the daytime high didn’t get to 52 that my point and click had. Only managed 47 at my stations this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Reggie held for the most part. South 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The gradient on this run between the GWB and the Kew Gardens Interchange is something on the order of 6”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Icon coming slightly south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: South More of a tilt, more snow CPK a little less LI. Important that it did not move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: More of a tilt, more snow CPK a little less LI. Important that it did not move north. maybe CPK can make it to 5 inches total for the season ........saying that on Feb 11th is mind boggling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Going to be tree and power line issues where that heaviest stuff falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Icon way south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Agree, it’ll be mostly on grass. 2” probably reality but can’t rule out 4” if rates are heavy enough. Having overcast skies these last 2 days helps a bit with solar radiation on the soil & today the daytime high didn’t get to 52 that my point and click had. Only managed 47 at my stations this afternoon. From what I’ve seen living here our area can do okay in marginal events like last 2/28, but if we’re screwed otherwise like a close in low track or the mid level warm layers it won’t matter. I’ll gladly take whatever it is. My gut says it could be a lot of white rain again on the south shore/city and slushy couple or few inches for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 52 minutes ago, Northof78 said: NAM exists low off VA coast and SECS for the region... Yep this is the model I'm going with. The 5 year old with crayons usually is the first to nail these setups. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon way south Wow. That's a massive shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow. That's a massive shift The transfer point is key here. All the models have a strong long offshore which cools the column down . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Yep this is the model I'm going with. The 5 year old with crayons usually is the first to nail these setups. I love that the L is so large it covers a ton of real estate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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