MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Are we going to get namd here ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: I'd kill for that. Given the temperatures to start, dry midlevels at the storms closest approach (that aspect is always undermodeled)- then it'll take some time to moisten the columns again and by then the storm is moving east quickly and it'll be daytime anyways so it'll likely be white rain. If NYC records an inch, I'll consider it a win. I'm betting over. I will say it again and people are dismissing it . It's a bombing low near the Benchmark. We are talking sub 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, binbisso said: Lr hrrr is well south I know there is zero chance but this would make up for the last two winter for my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: I know there is zero chance but this would make up for the last two winter for my back yard Don't say 0 chance. Still time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, North and West said: I would thoroughly enjoy being surprised, but if we get 16” out this in Morristown, then I’m also playing in the Super Bowl this evening whilst dating a billionaire pop star. . Hahaha hey neighbor. Totally agree with your odds of that happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Both nams coming in further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Saw the 18z HRRR..astounding. Here's the 19z NWS ensemble stats for this event. Not the 18z HRRR look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Both nams coming in further south You can say that again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam is cold Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 NAM exists low off VA coast and SECS for the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If the NAM is right areas around Baltimore could get more snow than Boston. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM 3k picking up on temp realistically showing much much lower totals. Aligned most snow depth change and kuchera output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, wxman said: If the NAM is right areas around Baltimore could get more snow than Boston. 3k Nam is north of the other Nam but also came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not really that cold or impressive…. Not the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Inner weenie is comin on out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 3k Nam is north of the other Nam but also came south You are persistent I'll give you that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 327 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 CTZ005>008-NJZ002-103-NYZ069-070-121000- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.240213T0600Z-240213T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0002.240213T0600Z-240213T2300Z/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland- Northern Westchester- 327 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. * WHERE...Parts of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York, and all of interior southern Connecticut. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit https://weather.gov/nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The interesting thing to me is the south trend is evident almost the whole run, the NAM sucks, but doesn't suck as bad in the short range. This may not be done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Temps today about 3-5F colder than progged, fresh NW wind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Inner weenie is comin on out Awful visual. Think I just threw up a little in my mouth 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, Northof78 said: NAM exists low off VA coast and SECS for the region... what is this? did a child draw that? there are better model sites out there then this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Think the important thing here is both NAMs moved south along with the EURO. Closer to UKMET, CMC and Reggie. GFS is stubborn. 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Monmouth jackpot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 CPK went from 1.6 to 4.6. 4 inches ROR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 After how bad the NAM was with the last storm (way too cold) why are people taking it seriously? The HRRR and GFS were equally as bad, they had areas that got all rain getting snow even as the event started. They even had my area getting a few of inches of snow and I didn’t see so much as a dusting. This is a classic SWFE, they almost always move north in the last 12 hours, not south and models almost always underestimate the mid-level warming in these. Rain to snow events as a general rule tend to underperform, especially with upper 40’s the day before going into it. Surface temps are going to be above freezing and ratios are going to be less than 10:1. I would wait until the 0z runs tonight and the 6z runs tomorrow morning before I spike the football 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: CPK went from 1.6 to 4.6. 4 inches ROR. Not buying 6” on the north shore. Hard sell on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 hours ago, USCG RS said: Given the Baroclynic Zone to set up, I would say this shifts south. You have cold air coming in, not retreating. Likewise, as a poster (MaineJay) on another board stated: "I'll go on a little limb here. The baroclinic zone appears about 20-40 miles south of what the NAM3 has it. I'm thinking that the NAMs tick south with the 12z." This has been my sentiment for a while (he just more beautifully stated it). That withstanding, given the cold air overriding the warm SSTs, I would say this shifts south. Likewise, the BCZ will allow for better dynamics as well. I would say NYC and LI, SCT as well are in a good spot for this. Thumpy. As usual you are always spot on. PLEASE post more often. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Inner weenie is comin on out 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Awful visual. Think I just threw up a little in my mouth You’ll be fine Rmine1. You just had a Joey Chestnut moment. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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