EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast. Yeah a strong low over the Delmarva/off Atlantic City is never good for our area. See December 1992, EXTREMELY powerful storm over the Delmarva yet mostly rain. We do far better with a storm EXITING the Delmarva moving east northeast. Not our setup unfortunately. Still have a shot at some snow as the ow deepens and moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 21 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast. Or maybe the models will be wrong 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, MJO812 said: So what’s wrong with this 25-30 miles north of battery park please tell me. We are still in the subforum! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Or maybe the models will be wrong 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 So what’s wrong with this 25-30 miles north of battery park please tell me. We are still in the subforum! Because we live in log cabins and sod houses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Southwest Morris County, elevation 725’; should be fun. Right on the border of a heavy thump of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, North and West said: Because we live in log cabins and sod houses . lol yeah. But hell is always city/coast blah blah all the time. I get it the city/coast has had really bad luck but still….. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: lol yeah. But hell is always city/coast blah blah all the time. I get it the city/coast has had really bad luck but still….. Should be a nice event up here. Orange County is in line for 8-12”. I can see Rockland & N westchester receiving 4-8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gefs also shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12Z GFS agreeing with 12Z NAM inNYC metro down to Middlesex County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, snywx said: Should be a nice event up here. Orange County is in line for 8-12”. I can see Rockland & N westchester receiving 4-8”. Yup which is all in the Upton forecasting area… also which is part of the thread discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs also shifted south this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS agreeing with 12Z NAM inNYC metro down to Middlesex County NJ The Hamptons with more than Connecticut? Sell that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgmsnowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Curious, I have to admit that I usually don't look at the 3 km NAM much for non-convective situations (for warm season convection it can obviously be good at times). My impression of the 3 km NAM is that it should not usually be much different than the 12 km NAM, except noisier which often is not helpful for these synopically-forced system (lots of spurious detail which is often wrong anyway). I am really surprised to see the big difference between the 3 km and 12 km NAM runs at 12z this morning. I wonder if something is going on with the convection within that 12 km and 3 km NAMs that is making a big difference in the precipitation distribution. Obviously the 12 km is going to parameterize convection, while the 3 km is going to have explicit convection. Is there something going on with this case that makes that difference a much bigger deal than usual? Curious to see people's thoughts on this. Living up in the Albany area, I'm hoping that the 3 km is catching on to something, although to be honest I really am hoping for a decent snow down in NYC... you have suffered long enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, psv88 said: The Hamptons with more than Connecticut? Sell that thats closer to yourterritory my area is right on the fence between nothing and several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NEG NAO said: thats closer to yourterritory my area is right on the fence between nothing and several inches Go with nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 What percent of this forum lives in the City or on Long Island? I think it must be a significant majority. So, that's why the focus is on the City and the coast... Also, I suspect most people in the City rarely leave the boroughs, so the north isn't on their minds. I never go north of the UWS...born in Schenectady though. Plus many people in this forum predominantly pay attention to their backyard (northern folks) or front stoop (MJO). Many Cityfolk want northern folk to get crushed by snow, but care more about the City. Seems reasonable to me. At least the north doesn't get screwed over so much by latitude, warm water, and concrete... take the win even of this forum doesn't focus on it as much. Also, I agree, people in this forum should consider moving 20 miles north instead of to SNE. Makes more sense. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, bgmsnowman said: Curious, I have to admit that I usually don't look at the 3 km NAM much for non-convective situations (for warm season convection it can obviously be good at times). My impression of the 3 km NAM is that it should not usually be much different than the 12 km NAM, except noisier which often is not helpful for these synopically-forced system (lots of spurious detail which is often wrong anyway). I am really surprised to see the big difference between the 3 km and 12 km NAM runs at 12z this morning. I wonder if something is going on with the convection within that 12 km and 3 km NAMs that is making a big difference in the precipitation distribution. Obviously the 12 km is going to parameterize convection, while the 3 km is going to have explicit convection. Is there something going on with this case that makes that difference a much bigger deal than usual? Curious to see people's thoughts on this. Living up in the Albany area, I'm hoping that the 3 km is catching on to something, although to be honest I really am hoping for a decent snow down in NYC... you have suffered long enough! the 3KM nam typically is just not good beyond 30, maybe 36. I do not like looking at it for any meaningful purpose beyond that and the 12k NAM 48...even the RGEM til 30-36 can be spotty (as I said earlier I feel its tended to be too flat/cold the last 2 winters at this range very often). At this range the Euro/GFS idea with tracks of the surface/id levels is where I like to focus and tomorrow AM I would definitely begin really using the RGEM/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z GFS agreeing with 12Z NAM inNYC metro down to Middlesex County NJ Bring those totals down near the coast, NYC closer to an 8:1 ratio given the mixing issues, and borderline temps IMHO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If someone would actually explain what is the driving forces for the north or south (or stronger LP versus less potent) solutions that would be helpful for the group. Is it a matter of the northern stream phasing in and pulling a more dynamic storm closer to the coast and to what extent or is this just how fast colder air filters in? What should we be looking for on the upcoming run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgmsnowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I try not to put too much stock in the NAM at 72 hours and beyond, but now we are starting to get into its wheelhouse. It always seems like the NAM has a good handle on the mid-level warm nose; usually more aggressive than the other models and usually right. That would worry me if I was in northern NJ or NYC at this point given what the 3 km NAM is showing. Precipitation with the NAM can be a real crap shoot however, as we all know, with some big run-to-run swings sometimes right up until go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 27 minutes ago, North and West said: Because we live in log cabins and sod houses . This whole thing has gotten so ridiculous. It is fucking science. If you want snow in marginal air you need grass trees and natural surfaces that cool rapidly . The whole winter has become a March snow event. Its too warm, theres too much cement, there is 12 feet of elevation. Daytime, anything but heavy…you are done. Getting mad at NW people or pretending it is a non event is literally getting angry at science and climate. It is bizzare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs also shifted south not really, members look similar overall to previous runs. this is based on track and other fields, not 10:1 snow maps and mean snow map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Very preliminary I’d say 1-3” for the north shore away from the city, maybe an inch if lucky in the city and south shore. 3-6” north of the Tappan Zee and 6-12” near I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgmsnowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 P.S., I live up to the west of Albany so well outside of the area of interest for most people on this forum. I just posted a question to the board folks about where to go to get more talk about Albany / east central NY. I like to read the NYC and New England forums, but generally don't post much as again I assume most in your forum could care less about Albany. But I figure that the difference between the 12 km and 3 km might be a general enough question to be of interest to folks down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises It really isnt. It is a 287 North/West event plus or minus a few miles. The further south of that you are, the less significant it becomes. This will be the fourth snow event like this this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: not really, members look similar overall to previous runs. this is based on track and other fields, not 10:1 snow maps and mean snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 46 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Loving the Mesos, which are now in their range, showing a 3" line from roughly Trenton to Sandy Hook and a 5-6" line along 78 (at 10:1, which is unlikely for the RGEM with surface temps on the mid-30s, but possible for the colder NAM with surface temps in the 32-33F range). Maybe we can get lucky with the globals and beyond... And it's looking very likely that for 95, even if there's little accumulation on the roads, heavy snowfall rates and poor visibility will be hitting right during the morning rush hour, so the storm will still be impactful. And for areas along/N of 78 this will likely be a very impactful storm unless we see last minute track shift north. Also, for coastal areas, moderate flooding is looking likely with the storm as per the NWS AFD and could also see 40-45 mph gusts at the coast at the height of the storm Tuesday morning (more like 30-35 mph inland). https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Was taking a walk this morning with a friend I met in the mall...she works at Merck. Started talking about how warm its been and how it might snow this week: she said there used to be a guy at work who would keep everyone informed about snow amounts and what to expect, but the guy retired and it seems like it hasn't snowed since.....thought you might get a laugh outta that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Very preliminary I’d say 1-3” for the north shore away from the city, maybe an inch if lucky in the city and south shore. 3-6” north of the Tappan Zee and 6-12” near I-84. Will depend when Central Park measures if they get anything more then a trace form this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: not really, members look similar overall to previous runs. this is based on track and other fields, not 10:1 snow maps and mean snow map. It's a tick south. This storm might have surprises with it . It's a strong bombing low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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