EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM a bit colder and snowier FWIW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Makes one wonder......its not unreasonable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NAM a bit colder and snowier FWIW. 3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: 3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic this whole situation depends on when the system reaches West Virginia and then attempts the hand off to redevelopment on the coast the Nam has it redeveloping off the Del Marva which is further south then some other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The 2/11 12z NBE has slashed its forecast snowfall amount to 1.7". It maintains a low temperature of 37. Let's see if it's wrong and overly warm about these temperatures, because with a low of 37 degrees there will be zero accumulation. What's keeping it from getting colder Don, is the wind coming off the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I like this a lot for north of 287/Merritt, though a large chunk of our area is gonna waste some of the overnight precipitation to sleet and mix at the onset with the warm nose above 850 and best diurnal timing. This is a frustrating one for the coast, especially the island, but that's often the issue in marginal storms like this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic no blocking until it hits Nova Scotia and bombs out to 950mb for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, NittanyWx said: I like this a lot for north of 287/Merritt, though a large chunk of our area is gonna waste some of the overnight precipitation to sleet and mix at the onset with the warm nose above 850 and best diurnal timing. This is a frustrating one for the coast, especially the island, but that's often the issue in marginal storms like this one. It's also frustrating because this is going to become a huge megastorm for Nova Scotia for days at 950 mb. Nothing seems to want to happen at our latitude near the coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic Would also have been much better if decent cold air was in place and more was readily available to be tapped. We're really relying on dynamic cooling especially more eastern parts of the forum. Still going with 2-4" for my location with 6" or 6"+ for NW Sussex county on north and east. We'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I like this a lot for north of 287/Merritt, though a large chunk of our area is gonna waste some of the overnight precipitation to sleet and mix at the onset with the warm nose above 850 and best diurnal timing. This is a frustrating one for the coast, especially the island, but that's often the issue in marginal storms like this one. I definitely felt 3 days ago they had a decent chance since I thought the confluence was just enough this might go 30-50 miles south of where the current average track is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NAM a bit colder and snowier FWIW. there's a very important phrase in that map's title 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Anticipating a wonderful wind-driven, migraine-inducing rain storm for here. Worst of the wind looks to come around high tide (10-11 AM). Beaches are pretty beaten up, the worst since Sandy and will take another beating. Considerable back bay flooding too especially once the stron NW flow kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The RGEM did not change a ton from 06z. It did however begin to see the mid-level warm nose more...it does show more pellets now in parts of the area for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realistic Yeah I saw that. I think it comes down to the back end. How much is left and how much does the low deepen. I literally live 1.5 miles north of the Merritt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's a very important phrase in that map's title Yeah I was lazy, here is Kuchera. Would be best case for CPK and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Heat island effect lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Let's see if it's wrong and overly warm about these temperatures, because with a low of 37 degrees there will be zero accumulation. What's keeping it from getting colder Don, is the wind coming off the ocean? It’s a really marginal air mass. Even dynamic cooling is limited on the NBE. The RGEM might be a bit cooler. Tomorrow’s soundings will provide some good insight as they will be more reliable than today’s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3K is bad though, even for places like BDL for a time...that said the 3K does suck until inside 30, the 12K can usually begin to be reliable to a degree inside 48...I still doubt we'd see this dip south enough as far ML low track to see anything more than 1 inch near NYC...if this was moving slower its likely we'd actually be able to see something as everything crashed behind the departing low but its moving so darn fast that is not really realisticI was asking this the other day… if it’s bad, why use it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Makes one wonder......its not unreasonable Very unreasonable 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, North and West said: I was asking this the other day… if it’s bad, why use it? . I usually do not take it seriously until inside 30-36..same with the RGEM somewhat...the RGEM has had a bit of a cold/south bias on these events the last 2 winters til the last minute...might be the same thing again but we will have to see if the Euro stabilizes/moves south a bit today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Given the Baroclynic Zone to set up, I would say this shifts south. You have cold air coming in, not retreating. Likewise, as a poster (MaineJay) on another board stated: "I'll go on a little limb here. The baroclinic zone appears about 20-40 miles south of what the NAM3 has it. I'm thinking that the NAMs tick south with the 12z." This has been my sentiment for a while (he just more beautifully stated it). That withstanding, given the cold air overriding the warm SSTs, I would say this shifts south. Likewise, the BCZ will allow for better dynamics as well. I would say NYC and LI, SCT as well are in a good spot for this. Thumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: takes one to know one...... Anything is possible 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Something to note here. Look at the dynamics in that simulated radar. A plethora of red and yellow, throughout nearly the entirety of the precip shield (even the blue has heavy simulated echos). Given those dynamics - and cold air filtering in - I would bring that Rn/Sn line south. Note - anyone just north of that transition line is gonna be pounded for a while. This is the type of snow that makes roads horrific. Something to keep in mind. (Yes I know it's the NAM 3k, but my point about the dynamics stands) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Loving the Mesos, which are now in their range, showing a 3" line from roughly Trenton to Sandy Hook and a 5-6" line along 78 (at 10:1, which is unlikely for the RGEM with surface temps on the mid-30s, but possible for the colder NAM with surface temps in the 32-33F range). Maybe we can get lucky with the globals and beyond... And it's looking very likely that for 95, even if there's little accumulation on the roads, heavy snowfall rates and poor visibility will be hitting right during the morning rush hour, so the storm will still be impactful. And for areas along/N of 78 this will likely be a very impactful storm unless we see last minute track shift north. Also, for coastal areas, moderate flooding is looking likely with the storm as per the NWS AFD and could also see 40-45 mph gusts at the coast at the height of the storm Tuesday morning (more like 30-35 mph inland). https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS improved a tad again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast. speed and exact track of this storm is key 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: GFS improved a tad again BUT CMC moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: speed and exact track of this storm is key BUT CMC moved north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 42 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Very unreasonable Might be unreasonable for city and coast but not for areas 25miles north….. why do a lot of you people forget the NW crew….. @CPcantmeasuresnow said it yesterday…..UGhhh @cleetussnowlol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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