Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 You guys want to look at a storm that is a week away when the current issue / storm is just 2 days away and very much in question ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: More bad news the 18Z GFS out to sea total miss for next weekend Good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yea until like Friday lol Day before the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Don't do it again man I'm not staying up late tonight if the 0z gfs looks like crap. I stayed up until the geps last night then went to bed and woke up at 2 to see the euro and eps and then went back to bed until 730 and woke up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is getting watches except the City This stinks Not just the city. Southern Westchester, CT Coast, and NE NJ left out as well. The new I95 is I287. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm not staying up late tonight if the 0z gfs looks like crap. I stayed up until the geps last night then went to bed and woke up at 2 to see the euro and eps and then went back to bed until 730 and woke up. Just wait until morning to see the overnight runs… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm not staying up late tonight if the 0z gfs looks like crap. I stayed up until the geps last night then went to bed and woke up at 2 to see the euro and eps and then went back to bed until 730 and woke up. Do you really do this? Why not get a good night sleep and see what the models showed in the morning? Staying up snowstorm I get but to see what a model shows I do not understand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Allsnow said: Just wait until morning to see the overnight runs… Thanks for the heads up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, psv88 said: Do you really do this? Why not get a good night sleep and see what the models showed in the morning? Staying up snowstorm I get but to see what a model shows I do not understand It's an illness 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Do you really do this? Why not get a good night sleep and see what the models showed in the morning? Staying up snowstorm I get but to see what a model shows I do not understand If it's an upcoming real significant snow threat (historic storm) I get staying up for the tracking part but a storm like this nah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Do you really do this? Why not get a good night sleep and see what the models showed in the morning? Staying up snowstorm I get but to see what a model shows I do not understand I'm a weenie too but I've learned my lessons and one thing I refuse to do is stay up late for model runs unless we have a good shot at receiving a substantial snow fall in the City. This one certainly does not meet that standard! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 This should perk you up... NWS Probs for 2,4,12" These are all pretty large for 48-72 hours. Disconnect between published snowfall-Tomer Burg 18z GEFS snow probs 1", and the 2,4,12" probs attached plus the 19z attached robust NBM. I can only think the NWS is latching onto the colder EPS values? I saw the18z GEFS predominant ptype for 12z Tue and s of I80 its rain (NYC) as well. Close call I80 for sure. So I'm not saying what will happen but will revert back to these varying stats and see what results. mPing will be helpful midnight ish -8AM Tue. fwiw we just had about .06" rain here in Wantage NJ the past hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: If it's an upcoming real significant snow threat (historic storm) I get staying up for the tracking part but a storm like this nah. Yes a huge blizzard with a cold air airmass I have stayed up for EURO and then passed out. But i am generally a night owl anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The 2/10 22z NBE currently forecasts a low of 36 degrees in New York City during the upcoming storm. The 12z GFS MOS is even more bleak with a low of 38 degrees. The MOS categorical snow outlook for NYC is trace to 2". The MOS categorical amount would fit more than 98% of historic cases with daily lows of 35 degrees or above and 0.25" or more of daily precipitation. For reference: 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: I'm a weenie too but I've learned my lessons and one thing I refuse to do is stay up late for model runs unless we have a good shot at receiving a substantial snow fall in the City. This one certainly does not meet that standard! Yea after enough tracking you kind of know the difference between a few models run show significant snow potential vs this actually has real potential to deliver a significant snowfall. I will say though the way the last two winters have gone even 1-3/2-4 inch events are becoming rare enough to be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea after enough tracking you kind of know the difference between a few models run show significant snow potential vs this actually has real potential to deliver a significant snowfall. I will say though the way the last two winters have gone even 1-3/2-4 inch events are becoming rare enough to be exciting. Haha true, a few more winters of this and I may need to redefine what counts as substantial lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The 0z NBE has increased forecast snowfall to 3.7" in NYC, even as it increased its estimated low temperature to 37. Only a single case exists with such a snowfall and a low temperature of 35 or above. Either the NBE will reduce the estimated low temperature or future cycles will reduce snowfall amounts. I suspect it will be the latter, as occurred with the GFS MOS's moving from an estimated 4"-6" to trace to 2". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just an observation - not mentioning any favorites at all - I know we never want politics to ruin this place - but if there's any amount of disruptive snow from this storm, the effects of it on the special congressional election this Tuesday will be studied for awhile. Especially given that the nature of the district is such that there's a significant north shore as well as south shore component. You can theoretically have a storm on Tuesday morning which keeps much of the northern side of the district home while the south shore is dealing with mainly rain. Add to that the fact that there's been early voting for 9 days as well, giving the early vote a potential outsized proportion of the overall vote, it really will be one for interesting discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 0z NBE has increased forecast snowfall to 3.7" in NYC, even as it increased its estimated low temperature to 37. Only a single case exists with such a snowfall and a low temperature of 35 or above. Either the NBE will reduce the estimated low temperature or future cycles will reduce snowfall amounts. I suspect it will be the latter, as occurred with the GFS MOS's moving from an estimated 4"-6" to trace to 2". This was a storm that occurred early in the 1900s wasn't it? I remember we discussed it. What was the low for that storm? It dropped 5 inches And we had one much more recently that dropped 5.5 inches with a temp of 33. Both happened in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just an observation - not mentioning any favorites at all - I know we never want politics to ruin this place - but if there's any amount of disruptive snow from this storm, the effects of it on the special congressional election this Tuesday will be studied for awhile. Especially given that the nature of the district is such that there's a significant north shore as well as south shore component. You can theoretically have a storm on Tuesday morning which keeps much of the northern side of the district home while the south shore is dealing with mainly rain. Add to that the fact that there's been early voting for 9 days as well, giving the early vote a potential outsized proportion of the overall vote, it really will be one for interesting discussion. a lot of people will not vote even if it's just raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just an observation - not mentioning any favorites at all - I know we never want politics to ruin this place - but if there's any amount of disruptive snow from this storm, the effects of it on the special congressional election this Tuesday will be studied for awhile. Especially given that the nature of the district is such that there's a significant north shore as well as south shore component. You can theoretically have a storm on Tuesday morning which keeps much of the northern side of the district home while the south shore is dealing with mainly rain. Add to that the fact that there's been early voting for 9 days as well, giving the early vote a potential outsized proportion of the overall vote, it really will be one for interesting discussion. given that early voters are generally Democrat, but South shore voters are generally republican, should balance no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: This was a storm that occurred early in the 1900s wasn't it? I remember we discussed it. What was the low for that storm? It dropped 5 inches And we had one much more recently that dropped 5.5 inches with a temp of 33. Both happened in April. That was the April 1907 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: given that early voters are generally Democrat, but South shore voters are generally republican, should balance no? Since it’s an all rain event it won’t make any difference lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just an observation - not mentioning any favorites at all - I know we never want politics to ruin this place - but if there's any amount of disruptive snow from this storm, the effects of it on the special congressional election this Tuesday will be studied for awhile. Especially given that the nature of the district is such that there's a significant north shore as well as south shore component. You can theoretically have a storm on Tuesday morning which keeps much of the northern side of the district home while the south shore is dealing with mainly rain. Add to that the fact that there's been early voting for 9 days as well, giving the early vote a potential outsized proportion of the overall vote, it really will be one for interesting discussion.Eh, they’re all as deluded and crazy as the posters here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just an observation - not mentioning any favorites at all - I know we never want politics to ruin this place - but if there's any amount of disruptive snow from this storm, the effects of it on the special congressional election this Tuesday will be studied for awhile. Especially given that the nature of the district is such that there's a significant north shore as well as south shore component. You can theoretically have a storm on Tuesday morning which keeps much of the northern side of the district home while the south shore is dealing with mainly rain. Add to that the fact that there's been early voting for 9 days as well, giving the early vote a potential outsized proportion of the overall vote, it really will be one for interesting discussion. Won’t impact anything. Have mail in voting and early voting for those that don’t want to go on Tuesday to polling location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Since it’s an all rain event it won’t make any difference lol I think this is the winning response lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Good. Keep it there for the next few days Upper 50s today. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 this one is cooked but I don’t think there’s anyone left who thinks otherwise. Albany ho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 52 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: given that early voters are generally Democrat, but South shore voters are generally republican, should balance no? Early voting gaps have closed. Early voting allows GOTV operatives to focus on those who have not voted yet as opposed to wasting time on those who already voted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Upper 50s today. Awesome. I was tossing the ball to the dogs while wearing a t shirt. But the constant mud.....stores have pallets of salt sitting around. Might want to stock up and keep it in storage; I bought a huge bag in Dec 96. It lasted me till 2003... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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