donsutherland1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I guess from JFK to NYC? I'll add in ABE and MPO JFK-2" NYC-4" ABE 8" MPO 12" Does this sound like a good estimate with the info we have right now? My current thinking is as follows: JFK: 0.5" to perhaps 2"; NYC: 1" to perhaps 3"; ABE: 3"-6"; MPO: 5"-10" The NYC-JFK-LGA-EWR area remains highly uncertain. Scenarios ranging from little or nothing to around 4" can't be ruled out. My thinking will be refined this evening. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro north Done Once we saw the north trend yesterday, it became apparent it wouldn’t stop. With a more amped up storm, and lessening confluence, this northward trend will likely continue. Not to mention the warmth leading up to the storm which would cut back on totals anyway. Not expecting more than an inch of slush here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 55 minutes ago, WIN said: That new map only goes through 7AM Tuesday. Not all the storm. Their map through 7p resides on their winter wx link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro north Done If it does not work out we will get em next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro north Done It doesn't seem like it went more north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Once we saw the north trend yesterday, it became apparent it wouldn’t stop. With a more amped up storm, and lessening confluence, this northward trend will likely continue. Not to mention the warmth leading up to the storm which would cut back on totals anyway. Not expecting more than an inch of slush here anyway. It's amazing how this happens all the time. What's the point of tracking a storm over 120 hours out , heck even 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Northof78 said: EURO looks good Yea for SNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: It's amazing how this happens all the time. What's the point of tracking a storm over 120 hours out , heck even 84 hours. You get too invested. You say this every Storm, the models change an flip flop so much. Can't get too invested until 72 hrs prior, sure you can track but no sense of living an dying with every model run 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Franklin0529 said: You get too invested. You say this every Storm, the models change an flip flop so much. Can't get too invested until 72 hrs prior, sure you can track but no sense of living an dying with every model run True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how this happens all the time. What's the point of tracking a storm over 120 hours out , heck even 84 hours. I agree, but you can begin to track a storm that far out, as long as you look at other things besides the model outputs. There was never going to be any cold air to tap into... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, David-LI said: Wow that's awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro north Done Told ya 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If it does not work out we will get em next time. Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, jm1220 said: Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least. Maybe, winters tend to have a theme. Hopefully next year is our next 20/21. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Told ya It's amazing how this north trend happens all the time after people ( yes myself also ) gets excited about model runs over 120 hours showing good stuff. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 3-5" for NYC from both the EURO/GFS and the most north models...seems like a good start for accumulation potential 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: 3-5" for NYC from both the EURO/GFS and the most north models...seems like a good start for accumulation potential That's 10:1. More like 1-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Northof78 said: 3-5" for NYC from both the EURO/GFS and the most north models...seems like a good start for accumulation potential Good luck 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Allsnow said: Good luck When the euro jumps like that in one cycle can even it be trusted? Not so sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how this north trend happens all the time after people ( yes myself also ) gets excited about model runs over 120 hours showing good stuff. Seems like now would have been a good time to start tracking. A few days out, still lots of variability amongst models, but general agreement on some basics such as timing, duration, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 When models are still hundreds of miles apart, a 25/50 mile blip from one model one way is noise, patience and let this one settle into the pocket. I think something close to the GFS/EURO blend is about right, with 2-4" near the coast/NYC and more N-W, but lets see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 My guess is this continues to trend north 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Seasonal trend I don’t believe in. Model trends around 1 system I DO believe in. Nothing is really preventing this being a complete rainer up to I 84 and perhaps further and there is plenty of time for that to manifest. Icon FTW. And I owe NAO an apology. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 You get too invested. You say this every Storm, the models change an flip flop so much. Can't get too invested until 72 hrs prior, sure you can track but no sense of living an dying with every model run if I had a nickel for every storm that deviated from what the models say five days out since I started watching the weather channel back in the John Hope days, I’d have at least thirty dollars by now.Your (MJO’s) enthusiasm is a nice change from other negativity, but you’ve seen this movie many times before. We’ll have pleasant surprises again.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Maybe, winters tend to have a theme. Hopefully next year is our next 20/21.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 29 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not all the storm. Their map through 7p resides on their winter wx link My point exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m going to be salty if I get slop or white rain again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I’m going to be salty if I get slop or white rain again Hopefully we have a pleasant March and not Smarch.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, WIN said: My point exactly. The 353AM attached.Ihavent checked for an update. In my opinion as I do my own non AMWX posts... once/day is enough... that steadies out all the model fluctuations and tends to keep my group on message whether its trending up or down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now