jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Years of disappointment and north trends have us all pessimistic. I don’t have a good feeling about this one Hopefully this is the one where we make it happen and deny the usual late north push. But I’d way rather be in Boston or along I-84 to 90. If the confluence is real and does its job it can work, but we know what the odds favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hopefully this is the one where we make it happen and deny the usual late north push. But I’d way rather be in Boston or along I-84 to 90. If the confluence is real and does its job it can work, but we know what the odds favor. Agree re late north push. This isn’t unusual, in fact its fairly regular. Nevermind that, just generally the last 36 hrs seem to have larger swings than we would see at this range. Locked isn’t a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said: Not really... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Borrowed from NE forum, comparison 0 to 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from NE forum, comparison 0 to 6z Basically the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 12Z NAM continues way south with suppression more of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12Z NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Just no cold air this year, absurd warmth to Montreal week after week Right……. I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again…… I guessing it’s never snowed and stuck to the ground with days leading up in the 50’s. Sometimes I just roll my eyes at some of you thats why I barely post! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, allgame830 said: Right……. I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again…… I guessing it’s never snowed and stuck to the ground with days leading up in the 50’s. Sometimes I just roll my eyes at some of you thats why I barely post! It definitely can snow despite lousy temps going into it. But that all depends on the storm taking a good track. It seems like this one might be seeing how fast the R/S line can crash south with the dynamics. We probably all see snow to end it but after how much rain or waste. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, Northof78 said: 12Z NAM continues way south with suppression more of an issue It's also fairly weak. No ccb. It will change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's also fairly weak. No ccb. It will change Agreed, prob end up stronger and closer to EURO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Right……. I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again…… I guessing it’s never snowed and stuck to the ground with days leading up in the 50’s. Sometimes I just roll my eyes at some of you thats why I barely post! We literally had a blizzard a few years back and the days leading up were in the 40-50s and the day before was 70+ on long Island. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It definitely can snow despite lousy temps going into it. But that all depends on the storm taking a good track. It seems like this one might be seeing how fast the R/S line can crash south with the dynamics. We probably all see snow to end it but after how much rain or waste. I still believe the confluence will win out here. That and the baroclynicity will push it south a bit. Where the confluence war sets up sets the stage for a good hard thump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I still believe the confluence will win out here. That and the baroclynicity will push it south a bit. Where the confluence war sets up sets the stage for a good hard thump. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, USCG RS said: I still believe the confluence will win out here. That and the baroclynicity will push it south a bit. Where the confluence war sets up sets the stage for a good hard thump. Looks like this is one where the two good areas will be just N of where the rain/snow line sets up and it’s cold enough and on the N end of the storm where good ratios happen and the northern most fronto band sets up. But those bands will pivot around so the people in good snow should all have fun at some point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Then you have the rgem which gives practically nothing to the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Years of disappointment and north trends have us all pessimistic. I don’t have a good feeling about this one I don't either. This event is way too thread the needle for my liking, for those of us near the coast at least, and it's hard to ignore the usual north trends leading up to events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Then you have the rgem which gives practically nothing to the interior It’s good IMO that it’s staying south. Maybe it means we’re not dealing with a huge late N push again and it isn’t that great a model anyway. I wouldn’t be worried at all north of the city unless we see a bigger confluence push on the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, keno19 said: Every person on this community is a weenie including myself. lol The workers of the NWS don't come into forums like this. Bernie Rayno probably one of the best experienced meteorologists i know. Todays weather channel meteorologists are all kids. Seems they almost just give atmospheric science degrees now like water. They dummy down the physics and calculus. Its sad everything now is ensembles and looking at models from run to run. I look at 75% of todays news weather men or women and they have backgrounds as journalism, earth science, environmental science lol. Those degrees don't go through the tough math and physics calculus differential equations, multi variable calculus, thermodynamics etc. probably why forecasts are horrible today. Don't want to be negative. I just like the real science behind the forecast. Good morning k19. Darn it, cliff notes for calculus and I find out about it now….. stay well, as always ….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Then you have the rgem which gives practically nothing to the interior 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 34 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Basically the same looks much more South,,,to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Then you have the rgem which gives practically nothing to the interior not in its wheelhouse yet or am I off base here ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: not in its wheelhouse yet or am I off base here ? Not yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 ICON is def a northerly outlier wow. Today's runs will be quite telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ILoveWinter said: ICON is def a northerly outlier wow. Today's runs will be quite telling. I know overly simplistic, however, not a bad idea omit the outliers and take a weighted average of the primary models. The outliers being ICON and RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, ILoveWinter said: ICON is def a northerly outlier wow. Today's runs will be quite telling. I think the north trend will start at 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I think the north trend will start at 12Z You might be right but going with the icon is a dangerous thing. It's a horrible model that no one uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: You might be right but going with the icon is a dangerous thing. It's a horrible model that no one uses. not going with the ICON that is way too north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, NEG NAO said: not going with the ICON that is way too north Compromise maybe between the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: Compromise maybe between the models yes - snow/rain line in Monmouth County NJ southwest towards Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now