MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said: I may go hang out in another forum. This place is pathetic. . That's what I'm doing right now. Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's what I'm doing right now. Ukie That dern seasonal trend rearing its ugly he…oh wait no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 After seeing the 0z GFS, GGEM, ICON, and UKMET. I have not seen enough to move away from my initial thinking that this will could be a light accumulation event (after rain) in New York City. By that, I mean 1" to perhaps 3" of snow. Those numbers can be refined either upward or downward following tomorrow's guidance, which could begin to move into better consensus. It is encouraging that there remain some global models with at least a moderate event (after slashing 10:1 maps by 50%) in and around New York City, particularly the higher-scoring GGEM and UKMET. The 2/10 4z NBE also showed 3.0" for NYC, 2.6" for Newark, and 3.5" for White Plains. It remains concerning that much of the storm could occur with NYC's temperature holding at or above 35 degrees (the GFS MOS was not yet available at the time of this post). The elevated temperatures suggest that this will likely be a slushy low ratio snowfall (5:1 or below) that limits accumulations in New York City and Newark. Better rates and accumulations would be likely north and west of those cities. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: I may go hang out in another forum. This place is pathetic. . It is definitely a tough room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's what I'm doing right now. Ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: It is definitely a tough room Tough winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, jm1220 said: Tough winter. Especially coming off of last year,,,yep. That said still 3 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 hours ago, gravitylover said: Bite your tongue I'm good with it being 287 and you should be too. He would want rain to Greenland if this was the Greenland subforum lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 27 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: I may go hang out in another forum. This place is pathetic. . Adios 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Do some of you ever stop to think? Don't you think the same people you see down on this threat (minus snowman19) would be honking if they saw big potential? Of course they would. This isn't about be jaded bc of the last 2 pathetic winters. This about a crappy setup with a marginal airmass. It's also ok to be optimistic but it also blinds many. We're all here to talk about the weather. There's many posters here with 20+ years experience as hobbyists or meteorologists. You should all know by now who you should take seriously and who you shouldn't. Why do so many of you act like someone is taking away your snow? It's wild. 2 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: After seeing the 0z GFS, GGEM, ICON, and UKMET. I have not seen enough to move away from my initial thinking that this will could be a light accumulation event (after rain) in New York City. By that, I mean 1" to perhaps 3" of snow. Those numbers can be refined either upward or downward following tomorrow's guidance, which could begin to move into better consensus. It is encouraging that there remain some global models with at least a moderate event (after slashing 10:1 maps by 50%) in and around New York City, particularly the higher-scoring GGEM and UKMET. The 2/10 4z NBE also showed 3.0" for NYC, 2.6" for Newark, and 3.5" for White Plains. It remains concerning that much of the storm could occur with NYC's temperature holding at or above 35 degrees (the GFS MOS was not yet available at the time of this post). The elevated temperatures suggest that this will likely be a slushy low ratio snowfall (5:1 or below) that limits accumulations in New York City and Newark. Better rates and accumulations would be likely north and west of those cities. Don - all valid thermal/column/accumulation concerns, but if the modeling is correct and along 95 we get 1-1.5" per hour snowfall rates with almost the entire column below 32F, but just the surface maybe at 33-35F, I would think we'd actually do at least Kuchera ratios or higher, i.e., 0.7-0.8, as the falling crystals would likely be decent dendrites from the DGZ to near the surface and only melt a little near the surface, hopefully not enough to lead to significant compaction and low ratios. I liken this to some of the late March/April storms we've had with high intensity, but decent ratios (not 0.5 at least)/accumulations although that's relying on memory and with your treasure trove of data you have access to, perhaps those storms did have poor ratios (although decent accumulations were seen). If the models verify and we do get at least ok ratios, then we could be looking at 6" or more for 95 - and with heavy paste, we could then have substantial power outages. Will be interesting to see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 30 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: It is definitely a tough room I don't venture in here without bear spray, packing heat and swinging Negan's bat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Don - all valid thermal/column/accumulation concerns, but if the modeling is correct and along 95 we get 1-1.5" per hour snowfall rates with almost the entire column below 32F, but just the surface maybe at 33-35F, I would think we'd actually do at least Kuchera ratios or higher, i.e., 0.7-0.8, as the falling crystals would likely be decent dendrites from the DGZ to near the surface and only melt a little near the surface, hopefully not enough to lead to significant compaction and low ratios. I liken this to some of the late March/April storms we've had with high intensity, but decent ratios (not 0.5 at least)/accumulations although that's relying on memory and with your treasure trove of data you have access to, perhaps those storms did have poor ratios (although decent accumulations were seen). If the models verify and we do get at least ok ratios, then we could be looking at 6" or more for 95 - and with heavy paste, we could then have substantial power outages. Will be interesting to see. At the height of the storm, ratios could be fairly decent. The late-season storms with heavy snow (quarter mile or less visibility) were above 5:1. At that time, the temperature was typically 32-33. Hopefully, the later guidance will show somewhat colder readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Drumroll,,,,,,,,,,Euro in 3-2 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro is slightly south and weaker, confluence orientation up north is better. Overall evolution is slower than 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Some will be excited about this - jackpot close to a foot around NYC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Is there a sign up sheet? I’m in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Schwing!! Coldest model with temps getting down to 31-32F by 7 am and staying there for the rest of the storm, which is why the Kuchera isn't much lower than 10:1 for 95 and is 12:1 or more well inland. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Some will be excited about this Most of us haven't been impressed with the setup, but who knows. Maybe we're due to get lucky with one after a lousy couple years. I'm still not getting my hopes up too high, but the models did look better tonight. We need a nice snowstorm around here, so let's hope this keeps trending better tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, winterwx21 said: Most of us haven't been impressed with the setup, but who knows. Maybe we're due to get lucky with one after a lousy couple years. I'm still not getting my hopes up too high, but the models did look better tonight. We need a nice snowstorm around here, so let's hope this keeps trending better tomorrow. I myself don't care for heavy wet snow at my advanced age - I still think it will only end up being a couple slushy inches near the coast ......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 you are relying on a potent 500mb shortwave here… the ECMWF accomplishes that with a great 500mb pass. i do think that it’s notable that the ECMWF is digging in under 96 hours out 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you are relying on a potent 500mb shortwave here… the ECMWF accomplishes that with a great 500mb pass. i do think that it’s notable that the ECMWF is digging in under 96 hours out Slightly delayed this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: At the height of the storm, ratios could be fairly decent. The late-season storms with heavy snow (quarter mile or less visibility) were above 5:1. At that time, the temperature was typically 32-33. Hopefully, the later guidance will show somewhat colder readings. The Euro gets down to 32F along 95 by 7 am and most of the snow then falls with temps 31-32F along 95 and colder inland, which is why ratios are near 10:1 along 95 and higher than that inland. The other models do look to bottom out at the 33-34F range around 7 am and are likely there for 3-4 hours on either side of that with the heavy snow, but hard to know that with models only showing temp data every 6 hours and temps being in the mid 30s at 1 am and 1 pm. Need more granular data... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 26 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Schwing!! Coldest model with temps getting down to 31-32F by 7 am and staying there for the rest of the storm, which is why the Kuchera isn't much lower than 10:1 for 95 and is 12:1 or more well inland. I like the top one better, the bottom one seems to indicate more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The Euro gets down to 32F along 95 by 7 am and most of the snow then falls with temps 31-32F along 95 and colder inland, which is why ratios are near 10:1 along 95 and higher than that inland. The other models do look to bottom out at the 33-34F range around 7 am and are likely there for 3-4 hours on either side of that with the heavy snow, but hard to know that with models only showing temp data every 6 hours and temps being in the mid 30s at 1 am and 1 pm. Need more granular data... The most recent example we have of this is April 2, 2018. We don't need to get to 32.... but it needs to be 33-34 at least, 35-36 won't cut it for more than an inch or two (at the very most.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 hours ago, SBUWX23 said: vertically stacked lows are decaying and do not produce the same dynamics. you want the mid level loves to pass to your south. I know but it seems like unstacked lows always seem to mix or change to rain on the south shore. There hasn't been an all snow 6"+ storm here since 2017 or 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Anyone remember the vday storm of 2007? We got a couple of inches… of sleet! It was by far the worst sleet storm I’ve ever seen. Any chance of a redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: Anyone remember the vday storm of 2007? We got a couple of inches… of sleet! It was by far the worst sleet storm I’ve ever seen. Any chance of a redux? NO way in hell. completely different setup with arctic air already in place from clippers in 2007. Here is your reminder- from the old weatherman https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2007_North_American_blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Rgem south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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