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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, weren't the 50s almost a perpetual el nino state until the 1955-56 la nina?  I think 1955-56 was another one of those la nina after el nino scenarios very hot summer followed by a snowy winter.

No. 1949-50 and 1954-55 were La Niña winters, 1950-51 and 1952-53 were neutral winters, and 1951-52 and 1953-54 were El Niño winters.

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11 hours ago, Kaner587 said:

The biggest issue I noticed was when rates slipped below 1.5/hr then compaction starting eating away at totals. In the period from 8am-10am and then again 1115-1pm totals rapidly increased but between 6-8am and 10-11;15 despite decent rates it barely kept up with compaction 

Compaction was not the issue in Union County, NJ.  Based on modeling, predictions and the actual storm setup, Union County was going to be in the bullseye. Up until 8 AM, we had about 3" on the ground with the "heaviest" rates yet to come.  Instead, during the 8:00 AM hour, the "Subsidence/Snow Hole/Screw Zone" set up over this area, reducing the snow rates.  Snow never compacted (appreciably) during the storm here.  At the very end, the last 10 minutes of precipitation, it appeared to be falling as a drizzle.  Immediately after, the snow became wetter, began melting and true compaction begun.

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11 hours ago, SBUWX23 said:

If we had been in the 20s that would not have happened. It's impressive enough that we had the cooling we did without the nice high to our north.

The region was cooler than what was originally thought.  When it was first progged, the storm was going to start on Monday.  The slight delay allowed more colder air to reach the northeast.  Not enough for an ideal setup, but enough to hold off any mixing issues, even with lighter rates over the subsidence (or whatever) over Union County in New Jersey (although I don't know if anybody noticed, the last 10 minutes of precip appeared to end as a light drizzle)?

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17 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Great. No offense, I need more than that. 

Well, If i had the whole day, I could give you several hundred examples of how badly Central Park has under measured snow throughout their history, you are aware that for many years the zookeeper in Central Park took the measurements, but lets just look at yesterday as the latest example.

Local CBS MET Lonnie Quinn went to measure for himself, after getting tired of waiting for the usual  delays from the NWS in trying to get someone off their ass and trek out to measure. I'm sure after at least some compacting he measured 3.9. THE Park officially measured 3.2. many would say what's the big deal, and it wouldn't be except it happens constantly and it's usually worse in the big events.

 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the elevation is in this area?  Northern location plus some elevation definitely plays a role in marginal setups plus there's sound enhancement too.

It ranges from 150-300 feet generally along either side of northern blvd. Where I am in laurel hollow elevation ranges 190-220. The peak elevation is actually in the west hills area with a max elevation of just under 400 feet 

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17 minutes ago, Kaner587 said:

It ranges from 150-300 feet generally along either side of northern blvd. Where I am in laurel hollow elevation ranges 190-220. The peak elevation is actually in the west hills area with a max elevation of just under 400 feet 

Thanks, I would think the average snowfall in that area is 30"+

 

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18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I got this storm all wrong. Definitely one of the most challenging storms I’ve ever seen since I’ve been a weather hobbyist. Never seen the models this bad, this close in. But I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong. Hope everyone enjoyed the snow. It was impressive and really a big surprise is what has been a complete dud of a winter until today….

Wait, you like snow?!

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7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder what the elevation is in this area?  Northern location plus some elevation definitely plays a role in marginal setups plus there's sound enhancement too.

My Muttontown station is at 154 feet & Syosset is at 230 feet in elevation.  3 miles apart. 

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Somehow my flight made it into Atlantic City without any delays or issues yesterday morning! Although it was snowing lightly, it did not stick  - in fact, when I got home to point beach, there was absolutely no trace or signs it even snowed. However, heading to work today, there was snow on the ground in Wall. I think the models completely overdid everything south of the 195 corridor. 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

that must've been the 60s lol

The "walking to school uphill in 3 feet of snow" probably evolved over many decades, AND not necessarily occuring in the immediate NYC metro area.  Also, no doubt, people from eastern PA and other outlying areas, moved into the area during the 50's and 60s, and brought tales of heavy snow with them.

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8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The "walking to school uphill in 3 feet of snow" probably evolved over many decades, AND not necessarily occuring in the immediate NYC metro area.  Also, no doubt, people from eastern PA and other outlying areas, moved into the area during the 50's and 60s, and brought tales of heavy snow with them.

I did it in the 90s lol

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2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

My Muttontown station is at 154 feet & Syosset is at 230 feet in elevation.  3 miles apart. 

I’m at about 160 at my house. Just west of me is close to 300. Everyone hundred feet matters in these setups 

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19 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

oh wow, I thought it would have been the late 90s, but it looks like the early-mid  50s had that beat.

 

In that interval (1949 to 1955) there were several brutal heat waves (1949, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1955, and a brief record-breaking burst of heat also in June 1956 followed by a cool, wet summer (but that was after the 6" daily snow drought ended anyway). Also in 1950 Jan and Nov all-time temperature records were set. 1951 was more moderate for warmth. There was actually a snowfall of 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 but 5.4" was its top daily amount in that event. (I looked to see what was the top snowfall in the lean snow period, think it was that one). Feb 1954 was a very  mild month also coast to coast, some all-time temperature records were set in Alberta. Even so, early spring of 1954 turned quite cold with some records set in early April. I wonder if you will see an early spring warm spell and a week or two of cold later in march  or April (like 1972 and 1982). 

 

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6 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

In that interval (1949 to 1955) there were several brutal heat waves (1949, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1955, and a brief record-breaking burst of heat also in June 1956 followed by a cool, wet summer (but that was after the 6" daily snow drought ended anyway). Also in 1950 Jan and Nov all-time temperature records were set. 1951 was more moderate for warmth. There was actually a snowfall of 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 but 5.4" was its top daily amount in that event. (I looked to see what was the top snowfall in the lean snow period, think it was that one). Feb 1954 was a very  mild month also coast to coast, some all-time temperature records were set in Alberta. Even so, early spring of 1954 turned quite cold with some records set in early April. I wonder if you will see an early spring warm spell and a week or two of cold later in march  or April (like 1972 and 1982). 

 

Hey, Roger, we were just talking about 1953 and 1955 in terms of extreme long duration heat and also the Worcester F5 tornado!.  I'll copy over one of my posts from there and maybe you can find more numbers on this.... how many 100 degree highs did NYC have in 1953? Because if this correct, there were an incredible number of very hot days that summer.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

And 1955 had another amazingly hot summer, I wonder about that 11 year cycle sometimes, it hasn't worked in every case but it has in a majority of them.

There's another more subtle thing going on that's different from back then.  Back in the 40s and 50s we used to get much longer heatwaves and the heat came in earlier, the extreme heat anyway.  We hit 100 back in June in a few of those years, which hasn't happened much since.  Also, the length of the heatwaves was much longer-- we have a record of a 12 day super heatwave (really amazing!) back in late August through early September back in 1953 (including a few days of 100+, the monthly record of 102 in September 1953 was recorded in this stretch.)  We have not had a heatwave of more than 6 days since 2002 I believe.  And that 12 day super heatwave from 1953 has not come close to being touched-- and it was rather astonishing it happened in the last week of August and the first week of September.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/heatwaves

 

I remember the ones from 1993 and 1999 in this list as well as the one from 2002.  Interesting how many of these are in that 11 year cycle I mentioned.

 I also just saw that 1953 had two long heatwaves, a 7 day heatwave in July and that 12 day heatwave.... and a total of 4 days of 100+ wow.  You just don't see that around here anymore. And if I'm not mistaken I think it also hit 100 in June 1953, so that would be 5 days of 100+ and hitting 100 in every month from June through September, wow!

Interesting thing about 2002-- it had two long heatwaves, one of 9 days and one of 8 days.  And although the 11 day heatwave in 1999 did not have any 100+ degree highs, we had two back to back 101 degree highs right after July 4th that summer.

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9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

In that interval (1949 to 1955) there were several brutal heat waves (1949, 1952, 1953, 1954 and 1955, and a brief record-breaking burst of heat also in June 1956 followed by a cool, wet summer (but that was after the 6" daily snow drought ended anyway). Also in 1950 Jan and Nov all-time temperature records were set. 1951 was more moderate for warmth. There was actually a snowfall of 7.8" Jan 10-11, 1954 but 5.4" was its top daily amount in that event. (I looked to see what was the top snowfall in the lean snow period, think it was that one). Feb 1954 was a very  mild month also coast to coast, some all-time temperature records were set in Alberta. Even so, early spring of 1954 turned quite cold with some records set in early April. I wonder if you will see an early spring warm spell and a week or two of cold later in march  or April (like 1972 and 1982). 

 

and also a record setting triple phaser in November 1950 not to mention all the Cat 3's that hit the NE coast in the 50s.....

The snowstorms we had back in the 50s also seemed to last a lot longer and occur much later in the season. March 1956 and March 1958 being cases in point.

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This was the first February calendar day with 6”+in Providence and under 1” in Boston since at least 2000.


 

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for Providence Area, RI (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
1 14.7 2003-02-17
2 11.9 2017-02-09
3 10.6 2013-02-08
4 9.4 2006-02-12
5 7.9 2015-02-02
6 7.4 2013-02-09
7 7.2 2003-02-07
8 7.0 2021-02-07
9 6.2 2024-02-13


 

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
1 23.6 2003-02-17
2 17.5 2006-02-12
3 16.2 2015-02-02
4 14.8 2015-02-09
- 14.8 2013-02-09
6 13.0 2015-02-15
7 11.0 2003-02-07
8 10.9 2017-02-09
9 10.7 2014-02-05
10 10.1 2013-02-08
11 8.9 2008-02-22
12 8.5 2022-02-25
13 7.4 2015-02-08
14 6.8 2016-02-05
- 6.8 2011-02-01
16 6.5 2000-02-18
17 6.4 2016-02-08
18 5.5 2005-02-24
- 5.5 2005-02-21
20 5.3 2021-02-07


 

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
1 0.1 2024-02-13
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