Dark Star Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 744 days was a pretty good run. I think all the storms and misses have been challenging over the last several years... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 44 minutes ago, psv88 said: Where you seeing that announced on WABC TV at 5:20 PM 8.7 inches Islip had the same number as JFK -- 4.2 inches. I found that interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 37 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 744 days was a pretty good run. Now we go for the 6 inch record I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The NWS had a storm report that showed 8.7" there. Yep, and it was announced by Lee Goldberg during his 5:20 PM broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: But the snow ended here around 1 PM so it was right on time. What were the airport totals, Chris? I noticed the snow started melting here at 1:30 lol This really was like a spring storm. I am not sure exactly how the low measurements are occurring in each given situation. But it has been an ongoing issue over the years. Notice how LGA got 3.3 with less precipitation and warmer temperatures. We know that many spots had issues with low ratios due to the warmth. Plus we lost some accumulation to the higher temperatures. The NYC ratio looks a little low to me. So maybe the snowfall there was actually in the 3.5 to 4.0 range. But this isn’t enough of a difference to materially change the flavor of the seasonal snowfall rankings since and extra 0.5 to 0.8 isn’t going to make a big difference. Past issues with low measurements https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/21/central-park-conservancy-will-take-over-snowfall-measurements/ https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/11/science/flawed-snowfall-data-jeopardize-climate-change-research.html snowfall vs precipitation today EWR…4.9…..0.58 NYC….3.2…..0.77 LGA…..3.3…..0.64 JFK……4.2…..0.65 ISP…….4.3…..0.72 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I am not sure exactly how the under measurements are occurring in each given situation. But it has been an ongoing issue over the years. Notice how LGA got 3.3 with less precipitation and warmer temperatures. We know that many spots had issues with low ratios due to the warmth. Plus we lost some accumulation to to the higher temperatures. The NYC ratio looks a little low to me. So maybe the snowfall there was actually in the 3.5 to 4.0 range. But this isn’t enough of a difference to materially change the flavor of the seasonal snowfall rankings since and extra 0.5 to 0.8 isn’t going to make a big difference. Past issues with under measurements https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/21/central-park-conservancy-will-take-over-snowfall-measurements/ https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/11/science/flawed-snowfall-data-jeopardize-climate-change-research.html snowfall vs precipitation today EWR…4.9…..0.58 NYC….3.2…..0.77 LGA…..3.3…..0.64 JFK……4.2…..0.65 ISP…….4.3…..0.72 Thanks, at least JFK, ISP and EWR seem right in line with expectations. The LGA number seems a little low to me too but the NYC seems to be even more so. I take it the snow at EWR was drier? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: But the snow ended here around 1 PM so it was right on time. What were the airport totals, Chris? I noticed the snow started melting here at 1:30 lol This really was like a spring storm. I felt the same way - melting started instantly. Such a different feel between storms that start cold and end colder, clear, and crisp, and a mild storm like this one, where there are puddles even during the storm (though i'm sure my experience on LI was different than N&W). But anyway I guess after 744 days beggars can't be choosers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I felt the same way - melting started instantly. Such a different feel between storms that start cold and end colder, clear, and crisp, and a mild storm like this one, where there are puddles even during the storm (though i'm sure my experience on LI was different than N&W). But anyway I guess after 744 days beggars can't be choosers. Yeah I was a little shocked to see all those huge puddles when snowfall rates slowed down after 11 am lol. The funny thing was at JFK it was 32 for six straight hours and then at the end of the storm as soon as the temperature creeped up to 33, it started melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 What a nice taste of winter snow pack down to a compact 2” now but the melting stopped now. Hopefully the weekend delivers. I want one more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Really hard to ever take the euro seriously again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 My normie take. The models suck because the climate is changing and they aren’t programmed for that? also. In reality the models do pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 How did tomer make out with the big storm? I’m sure he ended up in a mysterious snow hole 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 My normie take. The models suck because the climate is changing and they aren’t programmed for that? also. In reality the models do pretty good I don’t think it’s a climate change issue; it must be an informational input issue. Where you may be correct is that AGW is pushing changes on the inputs faster or slower than anticipated after input. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Already dipping below freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, the_other_guy said: You and Don did an excellent job. Early Spring type snow event Don good... myself shaky. I wasn't going to thread for another day or 2 cause this was north of NYC event. However, the NAM eventually had me concerned about NYC-PHL and to an extent the EPS trying to reclose the 500MB ow as it crossed the mid Atlantic to our south but that consistent NAM got my attention-concern for NYC. Anyone who wants to go back to p1 of this thread to check the ensembles... including WPC... you can see how far in error they were at D5! EPS was closest but all were north up near I84. Am concerned that we maneuver our forecasts too much to the EPS. I do not believe the EC is KING of the hill anymore (as a friend referenced)... recent past couple years have been shaky, especially yesterdays 12/12 version which forced too much northern retraction of snowfall. Anyone notice the power outages near I78 e central PA and w central NJ today. Probably near 33F wet snow 6+? I'll add NOHRSC analyzed snowfall to p1 when its ready. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The NWS had a storm report that showed 8.7" there. East hills Glen cove, locust valley and laurel hollow, the area along northern blvd central Nassau on east did very well. At about 5pm I was out sledding at a friends (we’re both in laurel hollow off 25a) and there was still easily 7in on grass after compaction so 8in+ for that region makes sense 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 54 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Really hard to ever take the euro seriously again Go with the UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 54 minutes ago, lee59 said: Already dipping below freezing here. Getting icy in the spots that melted on pavement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, Kaner587 said: East hills Glen cove, locust valley and laurel hollow, the area along northern blvd central Nassau on east did very well. At about 5pm I was out sledding at a friends (we’re both in laurel hollow off 25a) and there was still easily 7in on grass after compaction so 8in+ for that region makes sense I agree. The numbers out there appear realistic and in line with one another. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 00z 29° Storm Total 7.2" Depth 6" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. The numbers out there appear realistic and in line with one another. There’s a 8. 1 in glen cove 8.7 in locust valley 8.25 in dix hills further SE towards Jericho tpke, a 7.5 in north syosset 7.8 in muttontown 8 in commack and 7 in smith town. Paints a very clear picture that from about central Nassau between Jericho tpke and north of northern blvd there was likely a local max of 7-9 inches 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 To be fair outside of the UKMET & GGEM, modeling was pretty consistent & spot on till all hell broke loose 24 hrs prior to the event. The 12-14" that fell here in Orange county was modeled for quite a while till 12z yesterday. Was it ingestion of bad info that led to every single model to fail so close to the event? I mean up until game time every single piece of guidance had mby receiving 1-2". I believe the HREF was the only piece of guidance that continued to show 10"+ up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Kaner587 said: There’s a 8. 1 in glen cove 8.7 in locust valley 8.25 in dix hills further SE towards Jericho tpke, a 7.5 in north syosset 7.8 in muttontown 8 in commack and 7 in smith town. Paints a very clear picture that from about central Nassau between Jericho tpke and north of northern blvd there was likely a local max of 7-9 inches 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, snywx said: To be fair outside of the UKMET & GGEM, modeling was pretty consistent & spot on till all hell broke loose 24 hrs prior to the event. The 12-14" that fell here in Orange county was modeled for quite a while till 12z yesterday. Was it ingestion of bad info that led to every single model to fail so close to the event? I mean up until game time every single piece of guidance had mby receiving 1-2". My understanding was the severe weather or lack thereof down south threw everything out of whack regarding placement of the low but I'm sure someone can explain it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks like some snow showers about to move through from the west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: My understanding was the severe weather or lack thereof down south threw everything out of whack regarding placement of the low but I'm sure someone can explain it better But the placement of heavier snow ended up staying N. All modeling at the last minute shifted all the goods further south. For the Euro to shift the way it did is a rarity especially inside of 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I did great with this storm. Never gave up even when the models shifted north . My best call yet. 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I did great with this storm. Never gave up even when the models shifted north . My best call yet. Good job sticking to your guns. The north idea was not a bad way to go given the overall crappy setup, but we were saved by several minor subtleties that played in our favor. Thankfully the upper low existed over southeast Canada. It helped keep things from cutting to our west and then obviously the positive tilt to the southern stream initially. The trialing system also help shunt it east. If things were timed 6 hours later I'd suspect amounts would have been lower because of the marginal temps and time of day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, SBUWX23 said: Good job sticking to your guns. The north idea was not a bad way to go given the overall crappy setup, but we were saved by several minor subtleties that played in our favor. Thankfully the upper low existed over southeast Canada. It helped keep things from cutting to our west and then obviously the positive tilt to the southern stream initially. The trialing system also help shunt it east. If things were timed 6 hours later I'd suspect amounts would have been lower because of the marginal temps and time of day. Agree with you We would have had more snow if temps were below freezing. Still a nice storm. Best storm in 2 years here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Agree with you We would have had more snow if temps were below freezing. Still a nice storm. Best storm in 2 years here. The liquid equivalent out here was impressive in the 12-18z timeframe. Even here where it was 32-33, the temps and compaction were real. Probably would have had closer to 10 if not more but I'll settle with the half foot. Still a nice event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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