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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you can almost watch it melt

I've watched ice cream cones melt slower on a sunny pavement within a week of the summer solstice. 

Could use some arctic air around, antecedent and precedent. 

My supervisor called me at 7am, telling me we're working remotely. By the time it was 9, I shoveled once "for kicks" of knowing what it feels like to move 1 and 1/2 inches of snow from the ground with a shovel. It was invigorating and I was hyped for the rest of the day to do it again after another 4" to 8", as much as the NWS forecasted. Working home remotely and going to lunch without having to lay out calcium chloride, that glare from the street and sidewalk though, hell of an albedo compared to snow. 

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58 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of about 12:15 the snow ended and that last good 45 min band got us to 6.0" as per my lousy pic below, using the yardstick I grew up with, lol. 

Not quite the 7.2" I predicted, due to probably missing out on 1.5-2.0" from being in that heinous subsidence hell hole for 3 hours, lol. But Woo-hoo! since my expectations several days ago, when things were trending warm/wet for 95, was maybe an inch or two of slop...although there was certainly some hope for a 10-12" event in the past day or two if things worked out perfectly, but not a surprise that that didn't happen, which is why my prediction was for a more realistic 7.2".

This brings the season total up to a respectable 13.3", still well below where we should be (about 18" through this point in the winter), but way better than last winter's 5.2" here. And there are some more snow chances over the next few weeks.

And this storm is one more data point showing that snow will easily accumulate on all untreated surfaces at 33-34F, as long as there is moderate to high intensity, even after a warm/rainy day. Curious to see what my ratios were (in progress). Guessing pretty low early in the storm with some sleet and pretty wet snow, but probably >10:1 once the snow started falling heavily around sunrise and especially by mid-morning as the snow was fairly fluffy with nice dendrites, but I'll only be able to get one aggregate number.

AaNdH5q.png

Always great to read your posts during snowstorms. 

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Nice snowstorm here. Since it’s not cold, it’s melting nicely, too, especially after being out there and shoveling out water and heavy snow. My front yard is south-facing, so it’s been compacting and melting immediately!

About an hour and a half before it ended:
083ddbba53416529d744564fbffb34b5.jpg


.

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59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

3.2" at Central Park. Snow-to-liquid ratio: 4.2:1

The record streak without 2" or above daily snowfall ends at 744 days.

image.png.cbe765f7e28c6d36d3f8f3132854aed8.png

I'm not there so I can't definitely say, but I know from decades of battle and observing their often times ridiculous measurements, this one may be a tad low too, just like many others they have shoved down our throats through the years.

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1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I'm not there so I can't definitely say, but I know from decades of battle and observing their often times ridiculous measurements, this one may be a tad low too, just like many others they have shoved down our throats through the years.

Yeah its hard to believe ratios were 5:1

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1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

Sun already threatening to come out in Jamaica. Snow stopped as we entered Queens. 

IMG_3575.jpeg

It didn't threaten it actually came out and most of the snow on the trees has already fallen off or melted and we have large puddles on the streets now.  An hour after it got done snowing, a significant amount of snow has already melted lol.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Thinking the measurement was probably a little late at Central Park so there was probably closer to 4” before melting and settling.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
114 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Snow             Central Park            40.78N 73.97W
02/13/2024  M3.2 inch        New York (ManhattanNY   Official NWS Obs

But the snow ended here around 1 PM so it was right on time.  What were the airport totals, Chris?

I noticed the snow started melting here at 1:30 lol

This really was like a spring storm.

 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thats sad. Wish they took it more seriously.

I mean I don't know what else can be done-- 1 PM was basically when the last flake fell.  It's difficult to monitor something 24/7.  They probably take a measurement every 6 hours and then when the storm ends.  I know they sometimes make bad measurements, and this could be one, but I don't think it's because it was done too late.  I looked at the radar and the snow ended right around 1 PM.

 

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1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

Liberty - that is not a correct statement.   That figure is more commonly used as a point of reference to relate the amount of QPF progged to expected snow amounts.  In coastal areas (and inland too) the ratio can range from 5:1 in warmer storms with BL issues to 10:1 in slightly colder storms.  15:1 ratios can occur with colder storms accompanied by optimal conditions aloft.  

Right I know 10:1 is just an average, but here we've had everything from 5:1 to 20:1.  Our big noreasters are around 11:1-12:1 typically.

My point wasn't about the ratio of snow to liquid, but the fact that there's much more variability with snowfall because of the ratio-- whether it's 5:1, 10:1 or something else. A small difference in rainfall is equivalent to a much larger difference in snowfall.

 

 

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55 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

3.2 measurement is close enough, may have been 3.5 but honestly who cares? Could have been an easy 6 if we stayed within the good banding.

Probably closer to 4-4.5.

The reason we care is they have been doing this for decades. Not every time, but the majority of the time, and they're especially bad on most of the big ones.

The only period I've ever seen decent accurate measurements was when they had the Conservatory taking the measurements for several years in the 2010's. Why they stopped that I'd love to know.

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