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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Not all of Long Island is getting "blitzed" though, here it's a nice light to moderate snow.  We'll get to 4" and there's an outside shot of 6"

I wouldn't call it "bad luck" I just think it's the natural evolution of the storm.

I don't believe in "luck" as you probably know.

 

Yeah I get it. Just gets me mad that a record keeps going when a small subsidence zone caused it. It would be another thing if it turned to rain or was 35 degrees.

 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

But that's basically the entire city.  Even Central Park, although it's grass, it's surrounded by UHI, so you'll usually get higher numbers in surrounding areas  outside of the city (except here to the south near the ocean lol.)

 

No I get that but in this case there is no denying CPK would have had more snow if the bands were east or west. That's all I am saying.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It only got down to 33° after it had been snowing for several hours. So not having cold air in place ahead of a storm is going to reduce accumulations to some extent especially in such an urbanized setting like NYC. Where the banding sets up is always an issue but it helps to maximize accumulations if we are colder when the storm starts.

Right, in this sense statistics don't lie we've never had a storm that dumped more than 5.5" of snow with temperatures of 33 and above.

I think NYC will end up with 4-5 inches from this storm and probably down here near JFK too.  

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Right I get that if it were 19 degrees like the blizzard of 96 it would have accumulated quicker. However, what I am saying here is if everyone else gets say 6 inches, yet CPK gets 2.9, an under 3 inch record is misleading. The fact that CPK only got 2.9 has nothing to do with temps when all other areas with same or higher temps received more. The under 3 inch record would be very misleading.

By the time the storm is over Central Park will probably be in the 4-5 inch range.

 

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Lack of consistent heavy rates plus the bad boundary layer (and warm pre-storm conditions) killed the storm in Manhattan. Very reminiscent of 3/7/18 where it snowed all day but the deform band ended up over NNJ instead of the City where it was modeled to be and the torched boundary layer never never got the full dynamic cooling effect so we had 33-34 degree white rain. Wound up with a coating of slush in Midtown and little more in Chelsea.

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3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Been under a nice band for about a half hour now. Visibility under a 1/4 mile. Nothing is sticking. In fact the trace on cold surfaces is melting

yeah it really helped to have snow/sleet predawn to lay down that foundation. Nothing has stuck to pavement the past hour despite sold returns 

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Just now, Gravity Wave said:

Lack of consistent heavy rates plus the bad boundary layer (and warm pre-storm conditions) killed the storm in Manhattan. Very reminiscent of 3/7/18 where it snowed all day but the deform band ended up over NNJ instead of the City where it was modeled to be and the torched boundary layer never never got the full dynamic cooling effect so we had 33-34 degree white rain. Wound up with a coating of slush in Midtown and little more in Chelsea.

i think its a little better than that; we had about4-5 today just across the rive from the city and in that storm it was white rain; and the one after was almost as lame here.

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Not all of Long Island is getting "blitzed" though, here it's a nice light to moderate snow.  We'll get to 4" and there's an outside shot of 6"

I wouldn't call it "bad luck" I just think it's the natural evolution of the storm.

I don't believe in "luck" as you probably know.

 

I’ll probably end with 7-8”. Dumping here again but should be light from here on out. 

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Cleared the driveway about 45 mins ago. Hair over 4" of heavy wet snow. Clogged the blower chute a few times. It is still snowing at moderate clip and added another 3/4 inch or so. 

Not disappointed given they were calling for just an inch a day or two ago.

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1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said:

Lack of consistent heavy rates plus the bad boundary layer (and warm pre-storm conditions) killed the storm in Manhattan. Very reminiscent of 3/7/18 where it snowed all day but the deform band ended up over NNJ instead of the City where it was modeled to be and the torched boundary layer never never got the full dynamic cooling effect so we had 33-34 degree white rain. Wound up with a coating of slush in Midtown and little more in Chelsea.

This will def be better than that one in Manhattan. Everything including roads were covered at around 930 with the good rates and we are already at 3-4 inches. Rates diminished after that and with the recent salt spreading, streets are mostly clear again. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures and rates are both important. It’s rare for NYC to get both the best rates of surrounding areas and enough cold. I believe February 2006 was one of the few times that Central Park got the best banding and was cold enough to have the heaviest accumulations from Newark east to MTP. 

That was a mediocre storm for us just east of the city.  The park got 26" and we got 13" we were in subsidence hell.  I don't consider that an HECS because the 20"+ accumulation area was so darn small.  The park total for that storm was higher than my total for the entire season.  We also had that storm in December that gave the park 6" and we got nothing but rain-- thats the first time thats ever happened.  My most exciting storm that year was the 2" we got in April when the park got 0.1" to hit 40" for the 4th straight year.

January 2016 was so much better than that storm and a true HECS (and the third best KU event behind March 1993 and January 1996 overall.)

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was a mediocre storm for us just east of the city.  The park got 26" and we got 13" we were in subsidence hell.  I don't consider that an HECS because the 20"+ accumulation area was so darn small.  The park total for that storm was higher than my total for the entire season.  We also had that storm in December that gave the park 6" and we got nothing but rain-- thats the first time thats ever happened.  My most exciting storm that year was the 2" we got in April when the park got 0.1" to hit 40" for the 4th straight year.

January 2016 was so much better than that storm and a true HECS (and the third best KU event behind March 1993 and January 1996 overall.)

 

Wasn't here for that storm but I've heard a lot of people who were saying that they couldn't believe that CPK amount because they got so much less. I don't actually have any memory of it despite Allentown apparently getting 10-12", but I agree it's nowhere near the level of the all-timers despite its gaudy position on the snowfall list.

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54 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Storm is moving along rather quickly. Should be over by 1 here in NYC. Let’s hope that banding to the west pushes central park over the edge. I swear if the boroughs do great but Centeal park ends up with like 4” that’s just lmao and so typical of central park

I'm not sure any of the boroughs will get over 6" but I guess it's possible.  4-6 is good for this storm here

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