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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hrrr says it's lighter stuff after 10 at least for us west of the city

Once the storm intensifies a bit quicker, it should throw some precipitation back west again. But yes, this storm is moving quicker than expected, should end much quicker than thought yesterday.

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8 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The back edge is slowing down too,as it cranks and pivots. Any slower movement and amounts increase for all of us. 

This is the key. If this can pivot a bit instead of racing east, NYC/LI and C-NNJ can get a few more hours of SN+

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Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

Once the storm intensifies a bit quicker, it should throw some precipitation back west again. But yes, this storm is moving quicker than expected, should end much quicker than thought yesterday.

I always expected it to be done by noon. It'll probably be lighter after 10 or 11

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1 hour ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Valenswines' Day Surprise has given us a very thin, slushy coating in Monroe Township (Central NJ) so far.  WSW for 4-8 inches still seems achievable, but only if precipitation gets much harder soon.

Briefly went to heavy snow after I posted the above (and our WSW was upgraded to 5-9 inches).  Now back to light-to-moderate snow.  Lot of work left to do if we're not going to bust low in this area, and the futurecast of radar seems to suggest that the southern half of NJ may dry slot.  Seems like the models mostly did ok on intensity/precip but may have missed the sweet spot by about 30-50 miles (even as late as the 6z Euro).

 

Eyeballing about 1 to 1.5" on the ground.

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11 minutes ago, snywx said:

Snowing even harder now lol.. 

15"+ is def a legit possibility in these parts 

As far as the Euro/HRRR goes, this is one of the worst performances inside 36 hours I can remember.  

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I always expected it to be done by noon. It'll probably be lighter after 10 or 11

I've noticed that storms tend to come in quicker and leave quicker than expected. Yesterday, most model depictions had snow until around 3 pm for today. Heard some sleet on and off last night, that was probably an indication of the storm coming in quicker

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Just now, Krs4Lfe said:

I've noticed that storms tend to come in quicker and leave quicker than expected. Yesterday, most model depictions had snow until around 3 pm for today. Heard some sleet on and off last night, that was probably an indication of the storm coming in quicker

Yeah we had very little rain out of this as it went over to frozen pretty quickly 

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Just now, Dark Star said:

Getting much brighter at times here in Garwood NJ...

I'd assume that's an indication of less heavy or moderate snow moving through the area. Tends to look darker outside when snow is heavy. We should keep watching the obs from east PA, should be wrapping up there pretty quickly. 

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44 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 7:30 pm, 32F and snowing heavily with 2.25" OTG, so that's 1" in the last hour. With maybe 4-5 hours of snow left, think we can get to 6" but maybe not my 7.2" forecast unless we really get into a heavy band for awhile.

Been snowing pretty heavily the past hour, so as of 8:30 am we have 4.0" on the ground, so that was 1.75" the past hour, which is ripping. Just did my first driveway/sidewalk shovel and that's heart attack heavy snow, especially the bottom half which has the sleet/wetter snow. The snow the past hour has to be greater than 10:1 ratio snow - much drier and gorgeous dendrites. 32-33F right now.

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10 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

As far as the Euro/HRRR goes, this is one of the worst performances inside 36 hours I can remember.  

Here's a quote from a friend of mine who was at the NWS in New Mexico for 30+ years:

"Been years since I’ve seen the models perform so poorly…especially in the east.  One of my coworkers was a modeler in Environment Canada. We were talking how ******* the performance has been with this system.

He thought it was because the upper wave went across the Rockies where drag slowed it down and weakened the system. A combination of fewer inputs into the models that far west and the diffuse nature of the upper system (and model resolution) had a big effect in model performance. This is something he has seen before (he is more into theoretical meteorology)."

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