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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Not here my friend and I'm in one of the colder spots of the boroughs. Main roads are wet still, I was just out in it. Not complaining, just saying it's taking a while to stick here at least.

Roads arent where snow is measured. 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

That's a good forecast but 4 is going to be low because some people in the area are already over 2 inches .

Yeah but they will be the ones who will probably get close to 8 inches.

Since it was mostly a mix all night for us near the south shore, places like JFK should end up with more like 4-6.

 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

People were saying that it was going to be warm for the snow to stick. We are all near freezing now.

Great rates can overcome that.

The National Blend of Models badly overstated readings (estimating a low of 36). 33-34 seemed more reasonable, but given that we're already at 33 in NYC, it's possible to drop another degree or even two when the heavy snow arrives.

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but they will be the ones who will probably get close to 8 inches.

Since it was mostly a mix all night for us near the south shore, places like JFK should end up with more like 4-6.

 

Depends what they measure on the board.

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Maybe one day the models will have enough resolution to forecast 2” for 5th avenue, 1” for the belt parkway, and 5” for gun hill road itself. Until then….roads covered or uncovered do not make or break a snowfall forecast, regardless of kuchera, 10:1, snow depth, etc. 

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2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The National Blend of Models badly overstated readings (estimating a low of 36). 33-34 seemed more reasonable, but given that we're already at 33 in NYC, it's possible to drop another degree or even two when the heavy snow arrives.

31f here. Hvy snow currently..prob the reason why we are not having much of any problems with ratios now,its piling up fast up here too.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

About 4” here so far on elevated cold surfaces like my patio table. About half that on the ground. Very light snow here currently and 30 degrees.

Got 1/2” the last 40 minutes a few miles from you. That band is expanding though. Hopefully for a few hours. 

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8 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Not here my friend and I'm in one of the colder spots of the boroughs. Main roads are wet still, I was just out in it. Not complaining, just saying it's taking a while to stick here at least.

It was mentioned several times that this would occur.  The accumulations for this storm will likely double on non-paved surfaces.

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3 minutes ago, Kaner587 said:

Nice the separation of 1.5 miles does not seem to be making a huge diff lol 

hope all is well 

Haha, all is well. Hope the same with you.  Glad kids finally get a snow day & can sled this afternoon. 

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6 minutes ago, SnowDemon said:

How do you not have snow covered streets in Whitestone, and yet here am I in Astoria looking out at snowcovered streets and sidewalks?


I’m in Whitestone and there is nothing left that’s not covered.

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The National Blend of Models badly overstated readings (estimating a low of 36). 33-34 seemed more reasonable, but given that we're already at 33 in NYC, it's possible to drop another degree or even two when the heavy snow arrives.


Im down to 32.2 here in NE Queens.

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I was pretty much on board with NYC snow yesterday but was skeptical that rates would be heavy enough along the coast to overcome BL issues enough to get over 6”. Clearly the models were too weak and too far South with the banding. Kudos to the GFS and Canadian models which never shifted like the Euro and NAM did.

I always say how unstable the NAM is but people here love it because it often shows them what they want to see only to completely change most times a run later.

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4 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Got 1/2” the last 40 minutes a few miles from you. That band is expanding though. Hopefully for a few hours. 

I think we’re good for the next 4 hours or so. After that the back edge will be rapidly approaching.

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