psv88 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Would definitely still be worth interest there. Trenton area especially. But further south also means weaker dynamics. We are in the sweet spot for this one. Take a drive to west hills park tomorrow. It’s beautiful in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, psv88 said: We are in the sweet spot for this one. Take a drive to west hills park tomorrow. It’s beautiful in the snow. Yup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Would definitely still be worth interest there. Trenton area especially. But further south also means weaker dynamics. I agree. It will be interesting to see how this storm ultimately unfolds. The 24-hour map on the HREF should be impressive, but could be overdone to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Rjay jackpot. What do temps look like? Well, flurries tomorrow it is. 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: It's going to be a winter wonderland tomorrow . I might go streaking. If ya know, ya know. 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: Heh. So is my brother. Maybe this Sub Forum needs to pay for him to go on vacation in February more often... 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: You're probably still good. But wow at the trends today. LOL Unfortunately, without the rates, LI is in a very different spot. All depends on how quickly this deepens. Lack of blocking may be our detractor here after all, but, eh. February 2013 was a thread the needle and wound up phasing exactly where needed. Lets see. Edit - I still think NYC and LI get a hard hit. Dynamics all point towards this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3km nam profile over nyc at 14z. I disagree there is a trend for weaker lift in NYC area 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Well, flurries tomorrow it is. If ya know, ya know. Maybe this Sub Forum needs to pay for him to go on vacation in February more often... Unfortunately, without the rates, LI is in a very different spot. All depends on how quickly this deepens. Lack of blocking may be our death knell here after all, but, lets see. Ehh. We've had washouts and the January few inches, whatever this has will be infinitely better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs is great… can’t post anymore maps said size issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, nycsnow said: Gfs is great… can’t post anymore maps said size issue Kuchera is 9 inches for NYC Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs looks like a mauling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs is sick and has new data let’s go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, nycsnow said: Gfs is sick and has new data let’s go That band is like 2-3" per hr stuff. If this thing was slower would drop 2ft 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS big dynamic banding again with the mid level lows evolving in the perfect spot. Awesome. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I agree. It will be interesting to see how this storm ultimately unfolds. The 24-hour map on the HREF should be impressive, but could be overdone to some extent.Yup, concern there is the 00z HREF has the juiced 12z members included in the mean on the SPC page. With the new DESI interface, I think you can subtract out the -12 hour members if you think they're going to be less representative than usual. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 NWS Albany finally did put the crack pipe down and lowered my forecast to 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: That band is like 2-3" per hr stuff. If this thing was slower would drop 2ft Yeah that would be a massacre for 4-5 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, jm1220 said: GFS big dynamic banding again with the mid level lows evolving in the perfect spot again. Let’s see how the rest of nights go and hrr, which has still been bringing 5-8+ for Jersey and nyc metro hopefully this is the new data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24-hour snowfall on the 2/13 0z HREF. As noted earlier, it is likely overdone, but illustrates where the heaviest snow could fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1# down to 996 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 CMC coming up next hopefully follows gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: CMC coming up next hopefully follows gfs It did. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yeah that would be a massacre for 4-5 hours. Which is honestly what my forecast is for the area and what I have been seeing for a day or two now. This is why I am concerned about area roadways. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I told y'all it was gonna snow and stay south. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: We are in the sweet spot for this one. Take a drive to west hills park tomorrow. It’s beautiful in the snow. Watch for breaking tree limbs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaquanweb Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 im going to be working outside during the height at ewr tommorow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, nycsnow said: CMC coming up next hopefully follows gfs It's a little south of its 12z run with a sharp cutoff for NW New Jersey, but very nice for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: It's a little south of its 12z run with a sharp cutoff for NW New Jersey, but very nice for our area. Now time for the short range/hi-res models. South trend seems to have stopped on those too and maybe a slight bump back N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1# down to 996 GFS and NAM both tag her at 994 at 1am. Let's see what happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Now time for the short range/hi-res models. South trend seems to have stopped on those too and maybe a slight bump back N. 3z hrr rolling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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