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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

We've had fast movers with cold air rushing in perform well before. I agree though this is probably around 5-6 inches most areas but I think some places in the metro might get 6-10. 

Some places in the metro like the north shore of eastern LI or north shore of eastern Nassau, maybe.

WX/PT

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

whole state is closed here tomorrow-town/city offices schools you name it--north of 84 may have close to nothing.

I think you'll be okay but yup-tough call north of you. These do like to drive a fronto band pretty far north but that HRRR run sucked. 

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57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

given the maturing mid-levels in a great spot S of LI, wouldn't shock me to see persistent 1-2"/hr rates. this is especially true given the crosshair signature in NNJ... this is a cross section for MMU showing considerable lift situated in the DGZ with multiple hours of 0.2"/hr of QPF

going 6-10" for Morristown, 5-8" for NYC with upside for more if banding ends up strong. I have a hunch it will. this is for colder surfaces... there will be less on pavements 

141520996_Screenshot2024-02-12194228.thumb.png.00c6a9fda6f0a865a449aee9825f0a5d.png

As a Morristown guy I’m hoping you’re right :)

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Just now, jm1220 said:

I think you'll be okay but yup-tough call north of you. These do like to drive a fronto band pretty far north but that HRRR run sucked. 

Agree on that'the NW flank always has that weenie band.   I'll chck out the NAM before wrapping tonight up that should be telling.

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1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I mean in fairness this has been one of the most extreme last minute trends I can remember (especially south).

Almost like a reverse Juno 2015 but even that had more agreement it wouldn't be special in NYC besides the Euro/NAM until the end. But yeah, there'll be an uproar in much of New England if these lamer solutions happen. 

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