Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z euro bumped north 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This reminds me a little of 3/22/18 and how it went to town as it headed ENE. I doubt there'll be 18" on parts of LI like that storm had but many can end with double digits. The banding signatures and mid level evolution along with the abundant moisture to work with will mean 2-3"/hr. But it'll be hauling which will limit the amounts somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 49 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. I don't look at 10:1 maps but even the Kuchera maps are showing significant snow now for NYC and points south of NYC. I think people are underestimating how dynamic this storm could be. If the dynamics target Coastal NJ they get raked. It's about where the dynamics are in my opinion more than what temps are at the start of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We are in a good spot. Maybe the best spot since Feb 2006. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We are in a good spot. Take some off that. 3-6 is a good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Funny how it’s showing rain on the backside I saw this also. So, I looked at the soundings over the suspiciously green areas and they indicate snow profiles, not rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Yaz said: I saw this also. So, I looked at the soundings over the suspiciously green areas and they indicate snow profiles, not rain. Strange indeed. All other models are showing snow ptype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Take some off that. 3-6 is a good call.I like the big man stating some truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not impressed with this map. Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts. Especially up my way. Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon. Some will be disappointed IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Not impressed with this map. Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts. Especially up my way. Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon. Some will be disappointed IMO.It's in a small minority at this point. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This is how you run a snowstorm for NYC . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Will this be the obs thread for tonight and tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WWA for Ocean finally and WSW for Monmouth. Got the alert just as I checked out for a bit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 53 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Thinking @forkyfork is correct with trend leveling off He's probably the most accurate met on this site. His word is as close to gospel as one can get in this field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 School is called off for tomorrow. I think they should've gone with a delay to start, and cancelled in the morning if it all panned out, but I'll take it as a mental health day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, MANDA said: Not impressed with this map. Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts. Especially up my way. Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon. Some will be disappointed IMO. That map is Kuchera, not 10:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years. Wish we had a better airmass but it will be the biggest storm since January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years. We pulled the rabbit out of the hat for once. I’m legit excited for this one. From 7am to noon for just about all of us will be awesome. The mid level evolution looks about as good for NYC/I-80/LI as it gets. And further north should be okay too since fronto banding with better ratios usually extends pretty far north in these. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 congrats guys about time for you! 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WWA here. 2-4". Would be ecstatic with 2" but probably not even 1" being 1 mile from the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Strange indeed. All other models are showing snow ptype Must be some sort of algorithm bug. The green areas have snow soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Wish we had a better airmass but it will be the biggest storm since January 22 Not ideal for sure but we can do fine with a dynamic enough system-March 2018 etc. Midtown, the immediate south shore and usual warmer spots might have some issues but heavy snow will drop most of us to 32-33 quick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 given the maturing mid-levels in a great spot S of LI, wouldn't shock me to see persistent 1-2"/hr rates. this is especially true given the crosshair signature in NNJ... this is a cross section for MMU showing considerable lift situated in the DGZ with multiple hours of 0.2"/hr of QPF going 6-10" for Morristown, 5-8" for NYC with upside for more if banding ends up strong. I have a hunch it will. this is for colder surfaces... there will be less on pavements 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Fun map. If we can get those solid snowfall rates for several hours, it will just confirm how much all love snow. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Finally NYC but Congrats and I’m hoping some stay up and take photos and have a great nite ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: No one uses snow depth maps God I can't 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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