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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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This reminds me a little of 3/22/18 and how it went to town as it headed ENE. I doubt there'll be 18" on parts of LI like that storm had but many can end with double digits. The banding signatures and mid level evolution along with the abundant moisture to work with will mean 2-3"/hr. But it'll be hauling which will limit the amounts somewhat. 

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49 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

People need to stop looking at these clown maps in marginal temps. Take the number it shows and divide it by 2 and then take that number and divide it by 2. No way coastal Nj is getting anywhere near those numbers. Lots of no stick and white rain. 

I don't look at 10:1 maps but even the Kuchera maps are showing significant snow now for NYC and points south of NYC. I think people are underestimating how dynamic this storm could be. If the dynamics target Coastal NJ they get raked. It's about where the dynamics are in my opinion more than what temps are at the start of the storm.

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39 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Funny how it’s showing rain on the backside 

 

94834CE0-769D-4778-AEEB-0ED11199ADE7.png

I saw this also. So, I looked at the soundings over the suspiciously green areas and they indicate snow profiles, not rain.

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Not impressed with this map.  Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts.  Especially up my way.  Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon.  Some will be disappointed IMO.

It's in a small minority at this point.


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11 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not impressed with this map.  Knock some off for not pure 10:1 event and you are notably less than NWS amounts.  Especially up my way.  Going to be interesting from around daybreak through noon.  Some will be disappointed IMO.

That map is Kuchera, not 10:1.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years. 
 

D137AEDF-99ED-4A5A-8397-B44D4DAFA222.thumb.png.c24a64b77a8013508e61252de240c738.png

C0311869-2F8F-4B27-922C-1C031E4F76AC.thumb.png.c203c25fa722ca2be32a72a9121e62f9.png

 

 

Wish we had a better airmass but it will be the biggest storm since January 22

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am glad that we finally got a day 8 EPS mean storm track to drop south from Boston to the Delmarva instead of the other way around like we have been seeing in recent years. 
 

D137AEDF-99ED-4A5A-8397-B44D4DAFA222.thumb.png.c24a64b77a8013508e61252de240c738.png

C0311869-2F8F-4B27-922C-1C031E4F76AC.thumb.png.c203c25fa722ca2be32a72a9121e62f9.png

 

 

We pulled the rabbit out of the hat for once. I’m legit excited for this one. From 7am to noon for just about all of us will be awesome. The mid level evolution looks about as good for NYC/I-80/LI as it gets. And further north should be okay too since fronto banding with better ratios usually extends pretty far north in these. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Wish we had a better airmass but it will be the biggest storm since January 22

Not ideal for sure but we can do fine with a dynamic enough system-March 2018 etc. Midtown, the immediate south shore and usual warmer spots might have some issues but heavy snow will drop most of us to 32-33 quick. 

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given the maturing mid-levels in a great spot S of LI, wouldn't shock me to see persistent 1-2"/hr rates. this is especially true given the crosshair signature in NNJ... this is a cross section for MMU showing considerable lift situated in the DGZ with multiple hours of 0.2"/hr of QPF

going 6-10" for Morristown, 5-8" for NYC with upside for more if banding ends up strong. I have a hunch it will. this is for colder surfaces... there will be less on pavements 

141520996_Screenshot2024-02-12194228.thumb.png.00c6a9fda6f0a865a449aee9825f0a5d.png

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