forkyfork Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Allsnow said: Same guy said Albany would get more snow then nyc he waffles with every single model run. it was brutal before the jan 2022 storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Amazing. This must be what it felt like during the 1929 market crash. I'd jump out a window but apparently there won't be enough snow to cushion my fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Craig Allen On-Air dsotrSoepn5u7ma181g6a6l0u1580af23t76h17a9igmta5021iua7ua2fh0 · RANT- We have entered into model absurdity leading to meteorological insanity. I'll make this quick; I have to get on air and say something and try to sound smart. As of today's major runs and very latest meso/hi res updates, everything is seemingly being turned upside down. Like clothes in a dryer, the atmospheric pieces are still getting tossed around. The euro has been horrendous. Normally the stalwart, it now has a weaker storm, much farther south again. In the past 3 days, it has changed it's solutions and placement more than the average person changes their underwear (What...you don't change your underwear 4 times a day, do you? ) If this is the case, you can totally forget about 6-12" in the northern suburbs. If the snow isn't heavy enough in the City, it won't stick b/c it will be too warm. 3-6" of 'heavier snow' will now line up south of I-78 18z HRRR/nam nest- the heaviest accumultions now run between I-80 and I-78 from EPA/WNJ across LI. But again, that's using 10:1 ratios. ...which most likely will not verify. Too warm here at the surface. So I'm going to throw something against the wall and see what sticks and get on WCBS Newsradio 880 and come up with a forecast, which is sure to change again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 imo the south bleeding finally stopped 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upton going with 10” out here. Just gassed up the snowblower. LFG Yep, 7-12” on point and click. 1-2” overnight & 6-10” tomorrow. I’m sticking with my 4-8” call for us on the N Shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Don't be surprised when the 00z runs end up even further South. Most school districts around here have already called closings for tomorrow. I understand what the forecast was showing but there was no need to pull the trigger this early. re: districts. First: remember, they're responsible for life and safety, so they're going to err on the side of caution; Second: most people are normal, we are not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, forkyfork said: imo i think the south bleeding finally stopped Agree. Do you think we see the typical bump north now before start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: he waffles with every single model run. it was brutal before the jan 2022 storm 100%. Its very bizarre for such a educated person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’m still officially forecasted for nothing but rain, it’s frustrating. Trying to be realistic but every model has me getting something, absolutely not expecting big totals in northern Ocean regardless of what any model shows, but a nice 2-4 would go down easily this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: he waffles with every single model run. it was brutal before the jan 2022 storm Glad I’m not the only one seeing that, it’s maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Allsnow said: 100%. Its very bizarre for such a educated person Does it for clicks. Tries to bait John into arguments. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Up here just north of 84, even 4 inches seems like a stretch now when this morning NWS was predicting 7-11. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its definitely amusing seeing some ppl who whined about it being too far north yesterday and “no one lives up north” now celebrating, gotta admit. And if this storm trends northward overnight and shafts the metro, they'll be rejoicing... and good for them. Importantly though, the vast majority of us would rather have a storm that buries everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 100%. Its very bizarre for such a educated person He overthinks his forecasts to his detriment imo. So he’s constantly changing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I've Just now, Metasequoia said: And if this storm trends northward overnight and shafts the metro, they'll be rejoicing... and good for them. Importantly though, the vast majority of us would rather have a storm that buries everyone. The storm is happening overnight at this point so a trend that dramatic is unlikely. At most this shifts far enough north to hit both the metro and up to I84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: imo the south bleeding finally stopped One can only hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 My first winter storm warning since 2022. 4-8 inches 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, uofmiami said: He overthinks his forecasts to his detriment imo. So he’s constantly changing it. Classic case of an intelligent person (he and many people here are far smarter than myself) outthinking themselves to their own detriment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My first winter storm warning since 2022. 4-8 inches Enjoy! Been a long wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If 2-4 or 3-6 ends up verifying then fine. We could end up with way less than that up here. NYC is very likely fine, north of there? Not so much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My first winter storm warning since 2022. 4-8 inches Salute! L'chaim! sláinte! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My first winter storm warning since 2022. 4-8 inches Same here. Point click forecast from NWS has 5-9" in north Queens. Only 4-6" in Manhattan, Staten Island, and south Brooklyn, south Queens, as far as point click forecasts go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Wow actually upped totals in Westchester. They must think the south trend is a bit overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannoliman42 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Such varying estimates in NYC and Western LI. Certainly one of the weirder maps I've seen out of Upton, but could be factoring in UHI/population density. Edit: Thought about it some more. Still doesn't make sense to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: NYC is very likely fine, north of there? Not so much Are you at your daily limit yet for posting???? Models more often then not over adjust when south rather than north. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, cannoliman42 said: Such varying estimates in NYC and Western LI. Certainly one of the weirder maps I've seen out of Upton, but could be factoring in UHI/population density. Edit: Thought about it some more. Still doesn't make sense to me. Looks like a March storm but I guess with marginal surface temps they are maybe expecting it to be more like a March storm where UHI makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Trying to be that precise with the shading is admirable. Between the population density and the intricacies of the geography, the mets around here should get degree of difficulty points. That thing looks like the gerrymandered NYS congressional district map (historical not political statement - all parties do it.) I'm glad I'm not responsible for having to draw that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: imo the south bleeding finally stopped 100% agree. Short-range meso models have been steady in their past few runs. And current radar matches up with the models’ sim radar pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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