Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 @bluewave we need a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, psv88 said: For you maybe. For most of the forum it’s gotten better. Yea I'm not expecting much. I think the city will have hard time accumulating also. Moderate snow an 34 degrees ain't gonna cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, BlizzLuv said: AccuWeather has my town at 1-2" and TWC at 5-8". So 1-8 inches....lol. I would be excited with 3-5 inches - which falls in the middle. im right up the street from you across the border in Montgomery....Im thinking sloppy 3-4 inches similar to that last one...higher amounts maybe on grass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave we need a north trend what is happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Here is the LP. Keep an eye to see if it drops to 995 or below in next few hours... this is still a model analysis to a level using RAP fields. so dont panic off this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Orange County went from 12-15" on the 12z 3km NAM to a dusting to an inch. That's brutal. The south trend might not be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, suzook said: Lol, some are just NEVER happy. Correct. It would also be nice if everyone could admit they're not infallible and sometimes you're wrong; in this case, forecasts. It would helps us out so much personally, politically, professionally. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Has got to be some cutting of the totals by NWS at some point for along and north of Rt. 80. I don't see their current forecast of 8-10, 10-14 verifying along and north of 80 and west of 287. I'm thinking 4 to maybe as much as 6 for my area and the 6" is a MAYBE. Not liking the current trends for more than 6" up this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIJohn Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I live in Islip. What are we looking at now with the latest models? Are we still looking at 3-7 inches or is it more now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Orange County went from 12-15" on the 12z 3km NAM to a dusting to an inch. That's brutal. The south trend might not be over. Wouldn't be so bad for the immediate metro if this didn't also coincide with a weaker storm. Means little in the City without good rates even if in the main band of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: Wouldn't be so bad for the immediate metro if this didn't also coincide with a weaker storm. Means little in the City without good rates even if in the main band of precipitation. Models still show the heavy band but it’s over the city and cnj now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 https://x.com/nwsboston/status/1757126669691941144?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This is literally a 6-7 hour storm, it's moving very quick. Even if you average an inch an hour, at best it's a 6 inch storm. No one is getting a foot of snow here. 3-6 is the safest call, with maybe a few 6+ lollipops in my opinion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM is great for NYC/LI and area. It's been over 700 days since SW Suffolk county and most of Long Island has seen more than 2.5" of snow... I honestly thought 3 years was in the making... Thinking 4-6"... Maybe more if we get lucky... it's been a long time coming...Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Models still show the heavy band but it’s over the city and cnj now Verbatim per NAM it's still good for NYC for several inches. I'd be very happy with that, just hoping the trend stops here and we don't get further weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: A quick note on the short-range ECMWF and GFS: there is statistically no difference in skill between the two models at one day or less from an event. Those scores are always nice to know for accuracy from a big picture perspective, but what's important right now and in every storm is which model is most accurate for snowstorms and are there different types of snowstorms one vs. another model is better for? And nobody has ever really given more than anecdotal opinions on that that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Models still show the heavy band but it’s over the city and cnj now Was reading on another board and saw this posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Watching storms like this is like watching a college basketball game between two rivals. The whole game may be exciting, but it's always the last 2 minutes that decide it, and we're at like the 12 minute mark of the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Those scores are always nice to know for accuracy from a big picture perspective, but what's important right now and in every storm is which model is most accurate for snowstorms and are there different types of snowstorms one vs. another model is better for? And nobody has ever really given more than anecdotal opinions on that that I can recall. Unfortunately, there are no model verification scores for synoptic features. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Watching storms like this is like watching a college basketball game between two rivals. The whole game may be exciting, but it's always the last 2 minutes that decide it, and we're at like the 12 minute mark of the second half. I do believe we see a tick back north for the 0z runs…. The new RAP ticked slightly north and the newest HRRR held serve 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think a large portion of this subforum will jackpot on this storm...didn't think this yesterday even. Poor NE forum folks are taking baths while making toast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Its definitely amusing seeing some ppl who whined about it being too far north yesterday and “no one lives up north” now celebrating, gotta admit. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, MANDA said: Has got to be some cutting of the totals by NWS at some point for along and north of Rt. 80. I don't see their current forecast of 8-10, 10-14 verifying along and north of 80 and west of 287. I'm thinking 4 to maybe as much as 6 for my area and the 6" is a MAYBE. Not liking the current trends for more than 6" up this way. TWC just showed 8-13" in both the warning statement and total accumulated snow which is bat$hiT for up this way given current trends. I'm with you. 3-4" is looking more likely now. It could change again, but the trend is not our friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, RockawayRowdies said: My reaction as well. Morris County jackpot. I live here. So won’t happen :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannoliman42 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Amazing how close the storm with so much variation between models. Also amazing how Upton has been mum since this morning, especially re the Winter Storm Watch for NYC/LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 22 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: im right up the street from you across the border in Montgomery....Im thinking sloppy 3-4 inches similar to that last one...higher amounts maybe on grass I still think we get 6." We aren't in the worst spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NYC metro and li now have a little wiggle room, hopefully there is a little bump north to bring our friends up north back into it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I live here. So won’t happen You know what's great about this? We truly never actually know. That's part of the fun. People think they know, but they don't. We have good guidance but we can't nail it down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I feel like you would remind everyone on Christmas Eve that Santa isn't real. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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