allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea I'm still not overly worried about surpression especially for anyone SE of Orange county but can't say it's not at least a possibility. Yeah I think like I said before north of 84 is iffy right now 2-4/3-6…. But Northern Westchester/Putnam south will be just fine here. Biggest of the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ok boss! Check back tomorrow. Never said it’s totally accurate but this over excessive with ahhh the models are showing too much blah blah…. Look at the damn radar and compare which I see none of that! All speculation and guessing from you. The south trend is making 12+ amounts anywhere unlikely. I think the high end is probably 8-10 for the jackpot area which would still be a really nice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: The south trend is making 12+ amounts anywhere unlikely. I think the high end is probably 8-10 for the jackpot area which would still be a really nice storm. I never said anything about 12+…. 6-12 in the JP zone which will be 30 miles north and south of NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I never said anything about 12+…. 6-12 in the JP zone which will be 30 miles north and south of NYC I know I wasn't referring to you. I meant the 10:1 maps that are showing 12+, the surface will be too warm in the areas with best dynamics. I agree 6-12 is reasonable somewhere within 30 miles either direction of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z NAM is farther south at hour 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 How accurate is the HRRR at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, TJW014 said: 18z NAM is farther south at hour 12 Pretty soon Bermuda will be in trouble! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Going to get shafted up here in Poughkeepsie, 2-4, but I am happy for you coastal, NYC folks finally getting at least several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM is great for NYC/LI and area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4mb weaker and about 30 mi south compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 YOU JUST GOT NAM'D! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 18z NAM closes off this run over Northern Virginia which kind of drags the entire precip field South some. It's more consolidated. Definitely not a great trend for areas North of I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3km NAM is also amazing for the NYC metro and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, TJW014 said: 4mb weaker and about 30 mi south compared to 12z Weaker an weaker. Hopefully can get couple slushy inches. I'm up in northern coastal Monmouth county in hazlet. Not far from you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Weaker an weaker. Hopefully can get couple slushy inches. I'm up in northern coastal Monmouth county in hazlet. Not far from you soon itll be a 1000 mb low. those strength changes are noise. its the precip shield that we have to watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z vs 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: 3km NAM is also amazing for the NYC metro and south. If that's your take you really do need to go back to school and learn geography. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS will be interesting, I expect a shift south but just how much is the mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: 3km NAM is also amazing for the NYC metro and south. it's way south-looks like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Why are we complaining again? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Long Island locked in now for a nice 3-6” snowfall. Been a while and it will be nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3-5 hour period of moderate to heavy snow and out. Still starts as rain for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NYC is smack in the middle of basically the most northern and southern modeling at the moment... heavier wetter snow storm or slightly colder less intense storm. Either way it probably ends up 6-8 inches by either cutting the clown map output on a warmer wetter storm or keeping it closer to 10-1 for a colder drier storm. It's north or south from the city that actually looks like the tough forecast for a change. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Why are we complaining again? No complaints. Just getting weaker an weaker an without dynamics it's not gonna cool an stick. Couple slushy inches sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 AccuWeather has my town at 1-2" and TWC at 5-8". So 1-8 inches....lol. I would be excited with 3-5 inches - which falls in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Franklin0529 said: No complaints. Just getting weaker a weaker a without dynamics it's not gonna cool a stick. Couple slushy inches sure. For you maybe. For most of the forum it’s gotten better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Why are we complaining again? Lol, some are just NEVER happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Here is the LP. Keep an eye to see if it drops to 995 or below in next few hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 wow the nams would really cut snow totals in nw nj...maybe 6 inches where they were getting 12-18 on other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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