Northof78 Posted February 12, 2024 Author Share Posted February 12, 2024 This is becoming very close to nothing material north of 84, and if trend continues, surpression/lack of precip is biggest concern now for Metro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 The concerning thing to me is that not only is it moving south, it's getting weaker an weaker. Really need a potent system to get them good rates to stick. She might be gone for everyone except philly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Can say the same for the Ukie Easy bro I think we are just fine up here…. I think the problem starts north of 84 unless there is a bump back north. Also every single model besides the UKMET and EURO have 8-12+ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, Northof78 said: This is becoming very close to nothing material north of 84, and if trend continues, surpression/lack of precip is biggest concern now for Metro. We're also losing dynamics with each successive run. A deamplified storm may be good for our location in terms of snow in general, but you're losing good rates and dynamic cooling in an already questionable airmass. You're essentially trading a formidable snowstorm for northern areas for a slop fest in our backyards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, Franklin0529 said: The concerning thing to me is that not only is it moving south, it's getting weaker a weaker. Really need a potent system to get them good rates to stick. She might be gone for everyone except philly Yea especially in the City, weaker=no dynamics=no rates=nada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 HRRR farther south still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: The concerning thing to me is that not only is it moving south, it's getting weaker an weaker. Really need a potent system to get them good rates to stick. She might be gone for everyone except philly Weaker??? 12z runs showed just above 3 of them all sub 990… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 HRR crushes metro area and cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Yea especially in the City, weaker=no dynamics=no rates=nada I wouldnt call the EURO 979 LP "weak" by any standards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Whether it sticks or not depends on rates. If it's heavy the temp will drop and it'll paste everywhere. If it's light it'll be white rain. It's most important to be in the best dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: HRR crushes metro area and cnj Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I wouldnt call the EURO 979 LP "weak" by any standards... By the time in bombs out the best dynamics quickly collapse eastward. You want the storm to slow a little once it passes our latitude and maybe have a bit more of a northerly heading as the CCB matures. I guess beggars can't be choosers, but this is not ideal for optimal dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, mob1 said: We're also losing dynamics with each successive run. A deamplified storm may be good for our location in terms of snow in general, but you're losing good rates and dynamic cooling in an already questionable airmass. You're essentially trading a formidable snowstorm for northern areas for a slop fest in our backyards. Yea basically. Don't really like the trends at all but again there might be too much Euro hugging on here. Most other models still have the best dynamics right over the metro and the best snows still just NW of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Irish said: Map? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, TJW014 said: That might be an indicator the south tick is legit since I believe HRRR had been one of the more NW models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, TJW014 said: Sooo what’s with all the complaining LOL…. Snow starts in like 12 hours NOT 3 days 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Irish said: Map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I wouldnt call the EURO 979 LP "weak" by any standards... The hrr was 4mb weaker. Every cycle it's weaker an weaker. Those numbers are way overdone I feel 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Just now, HVSnowLover said: That might be an indicator the south tick is legit since I believe HRRR had been one of the more NW models? Fair enough…. But it’s still 6-12+ area wide 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Sooo what’s with all the complaining LOL…. Snow starts in like 12 hours NOT 3 days Because that's way overdone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: That might be an indicator the south tick is legit since I believe HRRR had been one of the more NW models? Don't know what people are worried about or how good that depiction is, but that's as good a look as you're gonna get. But doesn't mean it will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 3 minutes ago, TJW014 said: I don't buy it costal Monmouth/OC. Especially barrier island, white rain maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Can't be mad at this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 HRRR destroys LI. 12-15”. hard sell. I think 3-6” still a good call city and coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Don't know what people are worried about or how good that depiction is, but that's as good a look as you're gonna get. But doesn't mean it will happen. Verbatim yes it's a great look. The worry is it trends toward the Euro. I'm not that worried at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Because that's way overdone Oh ok gotcha! “Rolling my eyes”…… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Oh ok gotcha! “Rolling my eyes”…… Ok. Check back tommorow. I could see 3-6" in the city. Certainly not 12+ what the hrr is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Fair enough…. But it’s still 6-12+ area wide Yea I'm still not overly worried about surpression especially for anyone SE of Orange county but can't say it's not at least a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Sooo what’s with all the complaining LOL…. Snow starts in like 12 hours NOT 3 days I ain't complaining. The farther south this goes the happier I and @Volcanic Winterwill be lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Ok. Check back tommorow. I could see 3-6" in the city. Certainly not 12+ what the hrr is showing Ok boss! Check back tomorrow. Never said it’s totally accurate but this over excessive with ahhh the models are showing too much blah blah…. Look at the damn radar and compare which I see none of that! All speculation and guessing from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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