USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Would be amazing if after all this time this misses to the south and hammers Coastal NJ while NYC see's light white rain. I just don't see it happening though but have to keep on eye on this trend. I personally still believe LI, NYC, S CT, CNJ take a hard hit here. Dynamically makes sense to me. However, there is always the potential this shifts further South. Given the downstream observations though, I would say this cannot correct too much further south. Some rather heavy rains and storms transversing the Carolinas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 all of a sudden the ukmet is a god? Its been trashed on here for months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: all of a sudden the ukmet is a god? Its been trashed on here for months. I always thought it was bad with NE Storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I always thought it was bad with NE Storms. Tends to be too dry and too suppressed often times with deeper systems. It can do okay with the weaker lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that was a great storm-it did help that it was mainly an overnight event too. It was not an overnight event. Destroyed the evening commute. Started at 2, peak was 4-6 PM. So heaviest was during dark, but just after. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KNYC/date/2018-11-15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It was not an overnight event. Destroyed the evening commute. Started at 2, peak was 4-6 PM. So heaviest was during dark, but just after. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KNYC/date/2018-11-15I was stuck in that storm. 7 and a half hours to get from the Bronx to home in rockland countySent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 EPS should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I have seen the Euro cut back last minute and be wrong many times. Jan. 27, 2011 was one example. It cut back precip to .50" of precip inside of 24 hours. NYC received close to 20" of snow. There are other examples as well. When you have the GFS showing much more precip with dynamic banding + the Rgem/NAM and others agreeing, I would toss the Euro. I believe this is a 4"-8" snowfall for NYC/LI metro area with a risk for even higher, if the GFS deform band placement ends up right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Where is Forky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EPS should be interesting. Yea tho there was agreement with the Op at 6z for the south trend. Will be interesting to see what happens here but my guess is that it will be similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Won’t it already be puking snow before daybreak which would help get a layer in before your sun angles come in to effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, SI Mailman said: Won’t it already be puking snow before daybreak which would help get a layer in before your sun angles come in to effect? Yes. NO one has sad this. Start time is approx midnight for light rain transitioning to Snow by 4-5am... Sunrise is close to 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Where is Forky. He had said that this could be rain up to Albany (lol), so no surprise that he's quiet now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: Won’t it already be puking snow before daybreak which would help get a layer in before your sun angles come in to effect? Looks like a 5-8am change to snow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that was a great storm-it did help that it was mainly an overnight event too. It was a mid-afternoon into evening event in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Eps 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 35 minutes ago, ag3 said: There's a deform band of 2"-3" an hour. I dont care what the city ground temp is, if it snows that hard, it will accumulate. Wherever the deform ccb sets up, will receive 6"-12"+. Right not, most models place that around NYC. As for the Euro, it has done these types of whacky precip cuts many times in these situations. I wouldn't worry about it. Im a nervous wreck about it. That said, all the other models on the same page (ish) does carry more weight then the EURO alone on an island. But I am scared as the EURO is arguably the best of them all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15z sref 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps NYC is in a great spot for this. We have wiggle room for the inevitable bump north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps its over. the 6-8 on a mean wont accumulate. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sensitive interactions from the northerly NAM/GFS/HRRR to the southerly models (EC) that do not match the just issued WPC 17z/12 D1 QPF. Also, the WPC snow amount probs are quite high N of I80. So, as someone said, spooky-unsettling but we 've got to go with as smart a forecast we can. How about the SPC HREF: Yikes. Huge. One thing I see is that banding should be pretty large Poconos through nw NJ se NYS-CT-BOS near and just of I84 per 12z/12 NAM HRRR and HREF. Again though its your modeling of choice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: Won’t it already be puking snow before daybreak which would help get a layer in before your sun angles come in to effect? don't question the magic of sun angles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Pretty decent agreement. SLP will track over the delmarva. The question remains whether it gets tucked a bit and strengthens by Cape May (NAM/GFS/RGEM) or goes due east (EURO/UKIE) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, wdrag said: Sensitive interactions from the northerly NAM/GFS/HRRR to the southerly models (EC) that do not match the just issued WPC 17z/12 D1 QPF. Also, the WPC snow amount probs are quite high N of I80. So, as someone said, spooky-unsettling but we 've got to go with as smart a forecast we can. How about the SPC HREF: Yikes. Huge. One thing I see is that banding should be pretty large Poconos through nw NJ se NYS-CT-BOS near and just of I84 per 12z/12 NAM HRRR and HREF. Again though its your modeling of choice. It's hard to discount the Euro wholesale. It's been south a couple of times over the last few days of model cycles only to recover northerly. On those occasions, the EPS held steady. THIS time the EPS followed suit south. THAT concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's February, not March. Enough of this not sticking crap. It's not going to stick in the urban jungle if it's 35 degrees dude. Jfc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Also I thought the Ukie scores pretty well - comparable to the GFS. 2 top models in agreement is more than spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: It's hard to discount the Euro wholesale. It's been south a couple of times over the last few days of model cycles only to recover northerly. On those occasions, the EPS held steady. THIS time the EPS followed suit south. THAT concerns me. To me, with less than 24 hours until game time, I'd expect the ensembles to more or less agree with the Op. Typically we see large variations several days out and is why the EPS mean is a good tool at those lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 A quick note on the short-range ECMWF and GFS: there is statistically no difference in skill between the two models at one day or less from an event. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, donsutherland1 said: A quick note on the short-range ECMWF and GFS: there is statistically no difference in skill between the two models at one day or less from an event. Can say the same for the Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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