Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Evie3 said: I am unqualified to comment here, so please excuse my lack of education, but I seem to vaguely remember that happening here in Somerset County NJ during the big snowstorm in January 1996 - the storm that shut down the state for a few days. Granted that was an usual storm and I'm sure the temperature profile preceding it was more favorable. Temps were in the teens for that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks like UKIE nudged south again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 30 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Yea agree. Just saw a segment and the Met was emphasizing the importance of a 40/70 benchmark track, def more informative than in years past. Likely Dr. Greg Postell, who's a little pompous (many PhDs are and I should know, lol), but knows his stuff. Dr. Knabb former NHC Director is also awesome, as are many of the regular shift folks and as schmaltzy as he can be Cantore is fun and does know his stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks like they’re being very cautious expanding the WSW / WWA’s southward which suggests low confidence in the models depicting a great CNJ - NYC hit and or just a very conservative approach until right before game time given the shifts. Curious ultimately how hard they bite in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The differences among the guidance remains astonishing this close to the event. The operational GFS shows a potentially significant snowfall. Meanwhile, its MOS shows no categorical snow (trace or less). This situation illustrates just how much difficulty the guidance is having on pinning down the details for New York City. Based on the larger pool of guidance, I suspect a 3"-6" snowfall in Central Park is more likely than what the MOS is illustrating. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looks like UKIE nudged south again. Lmao congrats me, nah that’s a sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Looks like they’re being very cautious expanding the WSA / WWA’s southward which suggests low confidence in the models depicting a great CNJ - NYC hit and or just a very conservative approach until right before game time given the shifts. Curious ultimately how hard they bite in the next few hours. Def agree on being conservative in NYC, rates need to be there to overcome. Upside is nice though if it works out! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: Looks like they’re being very cautious expanding the WSW / WWA’s southward which suggests low confidence in the models depicting a great CNJ - NYC hit and or just a very conservative approach until right before game time given the shifts. Curious ultimately how hard they bite in the next few hours. I live in Nutley township and I’m under a winter storm watch for 5-8”. Just a mere 3 mile drive into Clifton it’s a warning for 7-10”. Talk about being on the fence! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 WSW 9-12” holy smokes! Im just leaving AC! coming back home to rockland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 55 minutes ago, MANDA said: I was in Manhattan for the April 1982 storm. It stuck on the roads and temperatures the day before was I believe were in the low 50's. Granted during the event temperatures fell into the m/u 20's, that is a big difference compared to 32-34 tomorrow. Late morning into early afternoon would have done late January or early February proud. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning and intense rates of fall got the job done. Also, that storm was not that different than this. Bombing low off Del-Mar-Va moving NE to near BM. If I recall correctly CNJ had much less than CP and SNJ had little to none. Guess my point is that if temperature can fall to 32 and you get 1-2" rates for a while it will stick to the roads but it has to snow HARD. I get a little worried for up here. Another 50 mile nudge south, and we're 2-4" as opposed to jackpot. And with marginal temps. As I read comments, the storm is nudging south. Hopefully not far enough to cut back our amounts. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Did this for 0Z, so figured I'd do it for 12Z with the same preface, i.e., posting the relevant snow maps at 10:1, as that provides direct data on snowfall QPF, plus the algorithms for snow ratios aren't always accurate in cases of high intensity snow. I'm sure we've all discussed ad nauseum how for this storm, especially for areas S of 78 and east of maybe the NJ TPK, surface temps are likely to be in the 33-35F range, leading to melting/compaction which would make the snow ratio produced up high in the sky (which should be >10:1 given great dynamics in the DGZ) something somewhat less on the ground as accumulated snow, but with >1"/hr snowfall it's likely that Kuchera and snow depth algorithms are too low. They're 6-7:1 for areas with any temp above 32F, but with the expected intensity, I think we'll see more like 8-9:1 for 95/south of 78 (although Kuchera are probably good where there are column temp issues near where there are changeovers, i.e., at the coast. So take these maps as starting points for how much snow might actually accumulate. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Wow, on that suite of 12Z models....if you average all, axis is through NYC give or take 10 miles, with average total accumulations of 8-10" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 HRRR coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 My 2 Cents: Those in the fringe areas, treat this as if it will be a hit and take precautions, especially NYC, LI, NW and CNJ and SE CT on up through SE MA. This snowfall will be incredibly heavy where the axis sets up and you do not want to be caught off guard. This is the type of snow which creates traffic havoc and can lead to some of these horror stories you hear of when people are stuck for extended periods of times. Not saying it will be apocalyptic, but something to keep in mind and prepare for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 These maps are showing 10-1 ratio, probably would be more like 7-1. So I would adjust accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro south again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So….when does the blizzard start? Or, the total bust? Oh, can you guys and girls above, like, White Plains/New Rochelle let us coastal people get a little something? Ya greedy bastards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 What in the world is going on with the Euro?! Not saying it's wrong but wow so different. What are the Mesos indicating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro south again Map me good sir, unable to check at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, USCG RS said: My 2 Cents: Those in the fringe areas, treat this as if it will be a hit and take precautions, especially NYC, LI, NW and CNJ and SE CT on up through SE MA. This snowfall will be incredibly heavy where the axis sets up and you do not want to be caught off guard. This is the type of snow which creates traffic havoc and can lead to some of these horror stories you hear of when people are stuck for extended periods of times. Not saying it will be apocalyptic, but something to keep in mind and prepare for. I lost power and had a tree fall on my house in 2018 from a heavy snow event. Hopefully this is not as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Euro south again its out that far already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Volcanic Winter said: Map me good sir, unable to check at the moment. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, SBUWX23 said: its out that far already? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Kuchie ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Stormlover74 said: lmao thats awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Evie3 said: I am unqualified to comment here, so please excuse my lack of education, but I seem to vaguely remember that happening here in Somerset County NJ during the big snowstorm in January 1996 - the storm that shut down the state for a few days. Granted that was an usual storm and I'm sure the temperature profile preceding it was more favorable. As I eluded, there are exceptions. January 1996 was a huge snowstorm with no temperature issues. Tomorrow is a marginal storm, where it all has to go right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Thank you, not rooting for this because it screws literally everyone else. I’d take and be ecstatic with 1-3/2-4 and I’m still not convinced that’s truly in the cards. Would feel better to see that reflected in an official AFD. But FWIW this reads “out to lunch” IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Kuchie ? Still gives NYC several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MJO812 said: Still gives NYC several inches verbatim not really-it's above freezing with moderate daytime precip...that's mostly white rain verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, USCG RS said: My 2 Cents: Those in the fringe areas, treat this as if it will be a hit and take precautions, especially NYC, LI, NW and CNJ and SE CT on up through SE MA. This snowfall will be incredibly heavy where the axis sets up and you do not want to be caught off guard. This is the type of snow which creates traffic havoc and can lead to some of these horror stories you hear of when people are stuck for extended periods of times. Not saying it will be apocalyptic, but something to keep in mind and prepare for. Dunno, I don't think any MAJOR roadway in NYC (proper) will be terribly affected? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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