SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: the Euro was probably too far south but the RGEM being south of the NAM at this range probably means the Euro is not totally out to lunch. the Euro likely nudges back north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018. Nov 18 might be my favorite example. It was also an example where the NWS completely overestimated marginal temp impacts on a high intensity snowfall, both with regard to mixing in the column and melting on the ground - and I was posting all the same things for that storm as I have been for this one - intensity is everything (or at least a lot of it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS mauls me. Not doing it, not getting roped in. Enjoy the snow!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018. I def remember some march storms sticking, I think Manhattan will be a lot of wet roads but in parts of Brooklyn queens esp Bronx and Staten Island you’ll see roads covered especially with heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Any type of dry slotting with marginal temperatures spells no accumulation for coastal areas... To be fair, the dry slotting would be temporary following by several hours of backend snow as the system moves East. You can kind of see the possible dry slot here on the 12K NAM. For areas along I-80 and points North this is going to be a very big snow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gonna be a lot of power issues tomorrow as well with this paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 CMC crushes the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I tend to never trust any guidance in these scenarios where you don't have a setup like a 12/2005 where you see stupid gradients from say JFK to LGA....usually in these types of systems the gradient line sets up between Sandy Hook to SI/JFK or well NW of the metro...to see it on a storm of this setup be over top of the metro never really occurs though guidance sometimes tries to suggest it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 LOL - Backend Snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Merry Christmas to all Fun Times and long overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: LOL - Backend Snow. . It’s more a strong CCB from a bombing low. Not your dying backend band. The CCB will be getting stronger and more intense as the storm pulls east 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Come on in, the water's fine!! Haha reminds me of the Kick The Can episode of The Twilight Zone. Anyway I'm so glad this trended in the right direction and we're actually gonna get lucky. I wasn't too high on this threat a few days ago. Looking good for at least a 4 to 6 inch storm for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: LOL - Backend Snow. . This is a full blown coastal system with a mature CCB. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is a full blown coastal system with a mature CCB. Mid level lows show how this CCB might really happen. Looks good at 500/700mb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Mid level lows show how this CCB might really happen. Looks good at 500/700mb. There will be deformation banding, the challenge now is how large, is it multiple bands, and where do they set up and move across. The fast movement argue that many will at least see it for a time even east of higher qpf predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Mid level lows show how this CCB might really happen. Looks good at 500/700mb. The mid level lows close off in a very good spot for heavy snow in our area. And the low is still deepening as it passes to our South. The system doesn't occlude until it's way up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The mid level lows close off in a very good spot for heavy snow in our area. And the low is still deepening as it passes to our South. The system doesn't occlude until it's way up in Canada. Imagine we had a good airmass.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Holy GEFS mean 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I was in Manhattan for the April 1982 storm. It stuck on the roads and temperatures the day before was I believe were in the low 50's. Granted during the event temperatures fell into the m/u 20's, that is a big difference compared to 32-34 tomorrow. Late morning into early afternoon would have done late January or early February proud. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning and intense rates of fall got the job done. Also, that storm was not that different than this. Bombing low off Del-Mar-Va moving NE to near BM. If I recall correctly CNJ had much less than CP and SNJ had little to none. Guess my point is that if temperature can fall to 32 and you get 1-2" rates for a while it will stick to the roads but it has to snow HARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 26 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018. While I agree with you regarding March/April and Nov, I would argue that this many times is the Sun Angel over anything else. I usually roll my eyes at Sun Angle arguments, however, here is where I believe the lack thereof of the Sun Angle plays a roll. As you know - during mid to late March and April as well as Nov, the Sun Angle burns considerable accumulation off the bat as it allows considerable more energy to reach the earth. (Neutrinos I believe) were shown by several studies to significantly increase in the times you mentioned, compared to winter months. These particles allow for significant energy transfer and thus snow rates must be much higher to overcome this energy transfer (and earths absorption) from the sun. During February, however, there is a considerable decline in this number of energized particles hitting the earth (compared to the aforementioned months/time periods). Therefore, I would argue that a snow storm with heavy rates in February will create quite the havoc throughout the Tri-State. Perhaps ratios take a hit, but this time of year - I would say the Tri-State is in for a rough time (travel wise). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Imagine we had a good airmass.. You have a Southeasterly flow to start which doesn't flip around until the low passes offshore. If you had a really strong high to the North Philly and DC would be getting snow and NYC would be on the Northern fringe instead of Albany. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Think TWC forecast is the best I've seen and they've really gotten much better the past several years (remember, they were the only ones who nailed Jan-2015) with some very good mets and model discussions these days. I think the NWS adustments at 4 am were in the right direction, but not enough, especially towards 276/195 and the coast, where I think TWC is likely to be better. We'll see of course. I totally agree with you. Many people on here love to rail against TWC as they used to be awful...and due to their built in biases about what it used to be, are unwillingly to accept their improvements 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, KeithB said: I totally agree with you. Many people on here love to rail against TWC as they used to be awful...and due to their built in biases about what it used to be, are unwillingly to accept their improvements Yea agree. Just saw a segment and the Met was emphasizing the importance of a 40/70 benchmark track, def more informative than in years past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, North and West said: . My reaction as well. Morris County jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Congrats Freehold lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: To be fair, the dry slotting would be temporary following by several hours of backend snow as the system moves East. You can kind of see the possible dry slot here on the 12K NAM. For areas along I-80 and points North this is going to be a very big snow storm. Just my 2 cents, I have never seen "signifcant" accumulating snow in a marginal temperature situation where dry slotting has occurred at some point during the storm. I don't think it is very common to have a dry slot, followed by heavy accumulating snow under any conditions in the immediate NYC metro area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evie3 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Just my 2 cents, I have never seen "signifcant" accumulating snow in a marginal temperature situation where dry slotting has occurred at some point during the storm. I don't think it is very common to have a dry slot, followed by heavy accumulating snow under any conditions in the immediate NYC metro area? I am unqualified to comment here, so please excuse my lack of education, but I seem to vaguely remember that happening here in Somerset County NJ during the big snowstorm in January 1996 - the storm that shut down the state for a few days. Granted that was an usual storm and I'm sure the temperature profile preceding it was more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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