psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Was sneaky cold last night at 29. That outta help cool the ground a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Think TWC forecast is the best I've seen and they've really gotten much better the past several years (remember, they were the only ones who nailed Jan-2015) with some very good mets and model discussions these days. I think the NWS adustments at 4 am were in the right direction, but not enough, especially towards 276/195 and the coast, where I think TWC is likely to be better. We'll see of course. Brilliant graphic. No way to know what they are forecasting for NYC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, psv88 said: Was sneaky cold last night at 29. That outta help cool the ground a bit Becoming optimistic this’ll be a good one for us. 2/28 last year was very marginal and we had 5” of paste. But we know the risks with white rain etc. The dynamics and snow rates with this one look awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Im pretty sure nws forecast accumulation that is not on road surfaces 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Was sneaky cold last night at 29. That outta help cool the ground a bit I really wouldn't worry about the ground temps unless this was early March. Mid-march for the sun angle, if one was to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 What eventually happens in the city will come down to banding. As this is a dynamic rapidly deepening system with plenty of moisture, 2” hour type bands should set up during the hight of the storm. If they end up over the city, it will accumulate even on pavement. I think the November rush our crusher attests to what rates can do. If we end up with .5” hour rates, it’s a grass storm. (City) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, uofmiami said: I really wouldn't worry about the ground temps unless this was early March. Mid-march for the sun angle, if one was to worry about that. ground temps are well above normal however. I do wish this was starting 6 hrs earlier so it would be at night like the late Feb storm last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gfs is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What eventually happens in the city will come down to banding. As this is a dynamic rapidly deepening system with plenty of moisture, 2” hour type bands should set up during the hight of the storm. If they end up over the city, it will accumulate even on pavement. I think the November rush our crusher attests to what rates can do. If we end up with .5” hour rates, it’s a grass storm. (City) that is one of my favorite surprise storms. just went haywire overproducing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 I don't think north of I-84 receives much above 4/5" max...this is a compact/strong storm with a very sharp N gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This isn’t a late season storm. We have a long history of getting big snows in mid February. We have about another month. After March 10th it’s pretty much over for I95 unless we end up with a very anomalous pattern. Given recent model trends and a significant shift southwards, closed 700mb low South of LI favors a band of heavy snow tomorrow for a few hours near I-80/287. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 12”+ reports especially in the higher elevation areas of NW NJ into Orange County, NY. I like 4-8” for the Bronx and Southern Westchester. 6-12” North of HPN. 3-6” for Central Park and 2-4” for South facing Brooklyn and Queens. There will be a Southerly flow to start which will cause mixing issues and the 700mb low close proximity could cause dry slotting in Central NJ and South shore of LI. Could be one of those storms where SI sees 3-5” and Sandy Hook gets nothing. Any type of dry slotting with marginal temperatures spells no accumulation for coastal areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GFS mauls me. Not doing it, not getting roped in. Enjoy the snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Becoming optimistic this’ll be a good one for us. 2/28 last year was very marginal and we had 5” of paste. But we know the risks with white rain etc. The dynamics and snow rates with this one look awesome. Was on the phone with my old boss this morning, told him 6" in that north shore snow zone is probably reasonable top end. But it's a snow board 6", i think a lot of 2-4", 2-5" readings mostly on grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wow even if you halve this in the immediate metro due to ratios, it's still solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terraryzing87 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'd say we're on our way to getting upgraded to a warning down south...been a wild ride, this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 It would be helpful if someone could point to the current location and strength of the primary low so we can compare to the models... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Mid LI sounding is a beaut clark at 15z on new GFS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What eventually happens in the city will come down to banding. As this is a dynamic rapidly deepening system with plenty of moisture, 2” hour type bands should set up during the hight of the storm. If they end up over the city, it will accumulate even on pavement. I think the November rush our crusher attests to what rates can do. If we end up with .5” hour rates, it’s a grass storm. (City) Banding? What exactly will be the causes? Won't rates be fairly uniform, depending upon your location in relation to the center of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Im pretty sure nws forecast accumulation that is not on road surfaces I would assume that to be true for most major highways. Local streets would be another story, if rates actually occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 fwiw... f you're interested in hourly snow ratio's it's on the RAP. I just sampled nw NJ at 6z and 11z as the vertical column cools...going from 7 to 1 at the start to 11 to 1 by 11z. NYC prior to 12z probably 7 or 8 to 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 28 minutes ago, hooralph said: Brilliant graphic. No way to know what they are forecasting for NYC. Precisely. Imagine if they ever used a graphic like this, which doesn't cover nearly as many people: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 There will be no issues with accumulation as of now, even for NYC. You have DPs on both the NAM/GFS at 12-18Z of 29-32 with winds of 010-040...that is easily going to be temps of 32 or even as low as 30 if the NAM is right and usually its thermals are better at the surface in these storms 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I’ve lived in outer boroughs my whole life, if we get the rates it will accumulate on roads and sidewalks. Manhattan is toast but all this talk of wet roads is just flat out wrong lol it’s accumulated across NYC with marginal temps and heavy rates plenty of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 35 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: The southern edge of that is probably too optimistic. Don’t think I’m seeing 1-3 here (TR / Manchester border). You may be right, but several models have you over 6" at 10:1 or over 4" at 6-7:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, nycsnow said: I’ve lived in outer boroughs my whole life, if we get the rates it will accumulate on roads and sidewalks. Manhattan is toast but all this talk of wet roads is just flat out wrong lol it’s accumulated across NYC with marginal temps and heavy rates plenty of times See March storms, early April storms, and Nov 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Even in flat out cold blizzards in NYC history you don’t see accumulation in Manhattan right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Becoming optimistic this’ll be a good one for us. 2/28 last year was very marginal and we had 5” of paste. But we know the risks with white rain etc. The dynamics and snow rates with this one look awesome. Come on in, the water's fine!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: RGEM and ICON look good. Nice to see models basically holding serve. 6z Euro might have been a burp run. the Euro was probably too far south but the RGEM being south of the NAM at this range probably means the Euro is not totally out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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