Nibor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 the sun angle is so warm just yesterday i felt it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Interestingly enough (and we may have to go back into our memories for this one), this storm is behaving somewhat opposite of the 3/8-3/9? (might not be exact date) storm in 2019. The first signs of that one coming far north and mixing significantly in NYC and the surrounding areas was the storminess in the south the day of and day prior to the event. The latent heat released by the severe outbreak pushed the storm further north, similar to what we see with tropical cyclone steering (moving towards the warmest waters if at all possible.) The severe storm outbreak today didn't appear to materialize, and if that trend continues through tomorrow, that could definitely be a result of a more positively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 As we know, a positively tilted trough doesn't allow the storm to ride up the coast which would push the boundary layer further south and therefore, the risk for snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the sun angle is so warm just yesterday i felt it.. The warmth was just because you were standing above a subway grate. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: The “sniff the rain” zone wherever that ends up will likely be a good place to be. This is an energetic system with a lot of moisture to work with. Bingo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 the sun angle is so warm just yesterday i felt it... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gfs is south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is south Not sure what ratios make sense at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Solid gfs run. Axis of heavy snow jacks NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: those clown maps are misleading - in central NJ as of 10 P.M. - MT. Holly is going with little or no snow accumulation ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inter Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wow! NYC might see more than an inch of snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm not sure if once again in this storm models beyond today viewed that piece of energy dropping through MI/WI as in some way leading to more NRN stream phasing or interaction downstream, but in reality it ended up probably acting more as a kicking mechanism or maybe increasing the confluent impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, NEG NAO said: those clown maps are misleading - in central NJ as of 10 P.M. - MT. Holly is going with little or no snow accumulation ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu) Good for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I'm not sure if once again in this storm models beyond today viewed that piece of energy dropping through MI/WI as in some way leading to more NRN stream phasing or interaction downstream, but in reality it ended up probably acting more as a kicking mechanism or maybe increasing the confluent impact. The models missed the intensity of the vort down south . It's weaker than previous modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Looks like we got a good one here boys…enjoy the show! Many will be surprised with this, nice bombing coastal low off VA/Delmarva moving ENE will do that…all models now on top of each other 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Not true here. The snowfall rates are progged at 2-3” per hour. Snow will immediately stick to the roads outside of manhattan I've seen it happen, in midday in March 2003 IIRC....starting puking snow around 10 am ; nearly stranded me on the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: those clown maps are misleading - in central NJ as of 10 P.M. - MT. Holly is going with little or no snow accumulation ZFP from KPHI (cod.edu) Its a computerized output. Its by definition not misleading. Just because it doesnt match up with what the meteorologists have put out doesnt make it anything besides potentially correct or incorrect. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, weatherpruf said: I've seen it happen, in midday in March 2003 IIRC....starting puking snow around 10 am ; nearly stranded me on the GSP. The sun angle on 2/13 is not really a huge issue yet. It becomes more a problem early March...15-20 days does not seem like much but it really matters...much like its so easy to see an accumulating snow event on 12/5 but very hard to do it on 11/15. Not for same reasons but same idea how 2-3 weeks things change a ton 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I've seen it happen, in midday in March 2003 IIRC....starting puking snow around 10 am ; nearly stranded me on the GSP. because of visibility or road conditions or both ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Rap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I've seen it happen, in midday in March 2003 IIRC....starting puking snow around 10 am ; nearly stranded me on the GSP. Forget March 2003, April 2003 was even better! And of course April 2018 too. We got 6-8 inches of snow in April 2003 and about 6 inches of snow in April 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Rap 8.4 in Northern Middlesex County NJ and Mt. Holly has little or no snow accumulation - somethings not right............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, NEG NAO said: 8.4 in Northern Middlesex County NJ and Mt. Holly has little or no snow accumulation - somethings not right............. They didn't update yet It's not hard to see it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rap Fap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1010 wins calling for up to an inch in the city. If the latest models are right they'll be way off.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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