Metasequoia Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: When you consider the fact the SREF is too far NW like 90% of the time thats scary Scary good, yeah? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm going with 8-12 for me here in the LHV. I think it will likely be closer to the 8 than the 12, but hopefully it surprises me! Can't wait regardless! I can take Wednesday off and hit the slopes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, MJO812 said: Jeez that's some heavy snow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The trend is our friend 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Sniff the rain zone might work out for us for once. HRRR isn’t great at this range but hope the other models show some good trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Time to get NAM’d? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Sniff the rain zone might work out for us for once. HRRR isn’t great at this range but hope the other models show some good trends. Don’t get sucked in lol. expecting more than 3” will lead to disappointment. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Guys I’m up in Albany for the week starting tomorrow, so it’s guaranteed to trend south and give the Metro its first significant snowfall in two years. Enjoy!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 From my perspective through 00z/12 HRRR NYC-LI... looking very good for 2"+, maybe 7" wet snow somewhere n LI. Thinking power outages whereever the boundary of 6" between I80-I78 where 33F wet snow. NYC streets slushy and slow. Back in the morning. Will be surprised if 01z NBM is under 2" NYC. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Guys I’m up in Albany for the week starting tomorrow, so it’s guaranteed to trend south and give the Metro its first significant snowfall in two years. Enjoy!! enjoy my homeland, hit herbies for a good california style (in-n-out duplicate) burger. available vegan and non-vegan:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: Don’t get sucked in lol. expecting more than 3” will lead to disappointment. That’s what she said. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Don’t get sucked in lol. expecting more than 3” will lead to disappointment. Grass being covered=success anywhere near the city south of the Tappan Zee. Intriguing though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Nam transferring so far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Grass being covered=success anywhere near the city south of the Tappan Zee. Intriguing though It's got my attention now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts Not true here. The snowfall rates are progged at 2-3” per hour. Snow will immediately stick to the roads outside of manhattan 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 NAM is a big hit....can't ignore this trend now.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, jdj5211 said: NAM is a big hit....can't ignore this trend now.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 minutes ago, wdrag said: From my perspective through 00z/12 HRRR NYC-LI... looking very good for 2"+, maybe 7" wet snow somewhere n LI. Thinking power outages whereever the boundary of 6" between I80-I78 where 33F wet snow. NYC streets slushy and slow. Back in the morning. Will be surprised if 01z NBM is under 2" NYC. NYC 2.8” on the 1z NBM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Homenuk on twitter says if the trend continues, there might be significant changes to storm forecast. Even still, we know that north and west trends in the last hours leading up to storms are real, so ideally, we would want this to trend as far south as possible, to counter the north/west trend that we'll probably see tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Look at the NAM 10-1 map and then the Kuchera map....notice anything? Kuchura was cutting totals 2-3 inches earlier....now it's almost identical in NNJ...models start to pick up on colder solution, trending back towards a 10-1 ratio.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3K Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 28 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts Yeah thats not really true at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Homenuk on twitter says if the trend continues, there might be significant changes to storm forecast. Even still, we know that north and west trends in the last hours leading up to storms are real, so ideally, we would want this to trend as far south as possible, to counter the north/west trend that we'll probably see tomorrow night. You forgot to throw in sun angle. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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