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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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From my perspective through 00z/12 HRRR NYC-LI... looking very good for 2"+, maybe 7" wet snow somewhere n LI. Thinking power outages whereever the boundary of 6" between I80-I78 where 33F wet snow. NYC streets slushy and slow. Back in the morning.  Will be surprised if 01z NBM is under 2" NYC. 

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  On 2/12/2024 at 1:54 AM, Eduardo said:

Guys I’m up in Albany for the week starting tomorrow, so it’s guaranteed to trend south and give the Metro its first significant snowfall in two years.  Enjoy!! :P

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enjoy my homeland, hit herbies for a good california style (in-n-out duplicate) burger. available vegan and non-vegan:)

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I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts 

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  On 2/12/2024 at 2:08 AM, Krs4Lfe said:

I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts 

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Not true here. The snowfall rates are progged at 2-3” per hour. Snow will immediately stick to the roads outside of manhattan 

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  On 2/12/2024 at 1:54 AM, wdrag said:

From my perspective through 00z/12 HRRR NYC-LI... looking very good for 2"+, maybe 7" wet snow somewhere n LI. Thinking power outages whereever the boundary of 6" between I80-I78 where 33F wet snow. NYC streets slushy and slow. Back in the morning.  Will be surprised if 01z NBM is under 2" NYC. 

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NYC 2.8” on the 1z NBM.

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Homenuk on twitter says if the trend continues, there might be significant changes to storm forecast. Even still, we know that north and west trends in the last hours leading up to storms are real, so ideally, we would want this to trend as far south as possible, to counter the north/west trend that we'll probably see tomorrow night. 

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  On 2/12/2024 at 2:08 AM, Krs4Lfe said:

I would issue a word of caution to everyone living in the NYC metro area and down to the coast while viewing the NAM and HRRR. Even if that very heavy snow verifies, it would take several hours of that to accumulate considering it's not a nighttime storm, temperatures will be starting off in the upper 30s, and at its coldest, we're likely to get down to around 34. Accumulation, even if the snow is that heavy and persistent, would still only lead to accumulations on vegetation and colder surfaces. I wouldn't expect much in the way of road impacts 

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Yeah thats not really true at all. 

IMG_4762.png

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  On 2/12/2024 at 2:25 AM, Krs4Lfe said:

Homenuk on twitter says if the trend continues, there might be significant changes to storm forecast. Even still, we know that north and west trends in the last hours leading up to storms are real, so ideally, we would want this to trend as far south as possible, to counter the north/west trend that we'll probably see tomorrow night. 

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You forgot to throw in sun angle.

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