Rjay Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:50 PM, SBUWX23 said: Hes sticking to his guns here and not relenting, but he needs to look lower down. there is a clear shift at 700 mb. Expand 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:54 PM, Rjay said: Expand Is that MJO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:55 PM, SBUWX23 said: Is that MJO? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 That’s our mjo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 High res RDPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Fyp. 18z Ggem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:54 PM, Rjay said: Expand What a smart guy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:00 PM, mitchnick said: Fyp. 18z Ggem. Expand That's an inch plus of qpf for NYC metro, LI, and north. That would add up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:36 PM, North and West said: my parents are currently in Florida, and I kind of mentioned this to them when they asked about the storm. One app says one thing, another app something else. Sometimes it’s a *feeling*; not very scientific, mind you, but some years the feel is there, some years it isn’t. The past two years it hasn’t been. For those of us old enough, we’ve seen the good and the bad, and intuition helps. It’s like a date or a job interview; sometimes you just have a feeling. . Expand Well I'm not much for gut feelings, but if we were to go on that, it's hard to feel good about this. My guess is another 1-2 inch job here, because that is the trend for storms this year. But Ant always gets me fired up.....like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:02 PM, MJO812 said: What a smart guy Expand He's been wrong enough times. Let's see what he says tomorrow night. And, I don't expect them to be 100% accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:05 PM, Metasequoia said: That's an inch plus of qpf for NYC metro, LI, and north. That would add up. Expand Mesos/hi res models being a little south in general is encouraging 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:57 PM, SBUWX23 said: High res RDPS Expand 10 to 1 all I got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:13 PM, EastonSN+ said: 10 to 1 all I got Expand Brooklyn with 2 inches and foot for northern LI. Sell that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 11, 2024 Author Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:05 PM, Metasequoia said: That's an inch plus of qpf for NYC metro, LI, and north. That would add up. Expand Thats not QPF, that's accumulation of snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 18z icon ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:21 PM, Northof78 said: Thats not QPF, that's accumulation of snow map Expand It's the resulting depth of water if accumulated snow is melted. That's a lot of snow... if it actually did accumulate. Am I wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:06 PM, weatherpruf said: Well I'm not much for gut feelings, but if we were to go on that, it's hard to feel good about this. My guess is another 1-2 inch job here, because that is the trend for storms this year. But Ant always gets me fired up.....like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football....You know what I mean though. Some years you got it, some years you don’t.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 I'm not a forecaster by any means. But I think this storm is the best chance for NYC so far to get over 2" this season. Question is will Central Park measure correctly? Does anyone know who actually does that measurement? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:36 PM, sussexcountyobs said: I'm not a forecaster by any means. But I think this storm is the best chance for NYC so far to get over 2" this season. Question is will Central Park measure correctly? Does anyone know who actually does that measurement? Expand i agree. all the other storms this year trended worse as we got closer, this one is trending better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:17 PM, psv88 said: Brooklyn with 2 inches and foot for northern LI. Sell that Expand Sell any 10-1 map in this setup. We’re fighting an airmass that got us into the 50s today. Some/a good amount will be wasted near the city even if these snowier models happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 11:38 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: i agree. all the other storms this year trended worse as we got closer, this one is trending better Expand I expect a bump back north tomorrow. That’s the usual trend. North, south, then north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 10:05 PM, EastonSN+ said: Expand Seems they expect it to bump back north a little tomorrow and the gradient to be around I287 as opposed to the models pulling it down to I80 today. Unfortunately they may be right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Euro south and colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 12:00 AM, HVSnowLover said: Seems they expect it to bump back north a little tomorrow and the gradient to be around I287 as opposed to the models pulling it down to I80 today. Unfortunately they may be right Expand I think they are waiting to see what the 0Z model runs show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 12:00 AM, HVSnowLover said: Seems they expect it to bump back north a little tomorrow and the gradient to be around I287 as opposed to the models pulling it down to I80 today. Unfortunately they may be right Expand That is just Upton map. Do you have Mt. Holly map? Do they jive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 12:01 AM, MJO812 said: Euro south and colder Expand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 On 2/12/2024 at 12:03 AM, MJO812 said: Jeez Expand Verbatim it's starting to look really promising especially for northern NYC/northern LI but we've seen this song and dance so many times and I am fearful of the typical north bump at the last minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 12, 2024 Share Posted February 12, 2024 Here we have some criticizing when forecasters flip flop and now NWS is remaining more consistent right now and some are upset and wondering why they didn't adjust. Surely if this trend continues amounts will be adjusted. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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