2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations

[MJO812]

Gefs coming in south

[Tatamy]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Wow. That's a massive shift 

FWIW the 12z Icon has 5-8” across the area from an event in the Friday night to Saturday period.  The GFS has a much weaker event at that time and the other models don’t have this.  Something to track during the upcoming week.

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Rap lol

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It lost a couple northern outliers. Mean SLP off Delmarva. That would be key here.

[jm1220]

Tough forecast north of the LIE/the Bronx and along I-80. Could be a sloppy inch, could be 6”. 

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Tough forecast north of the LIE/the Bronx and along I-80. Could be a sloppy inch, could be 6”. 

It's a tough forecast for all of us now . Still a while to go .

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It's a tough forecast for all of us now . Still a while to go .

 I'm pulling for you ant!! Will this one home

[MJO812]

Gefs increased snowfall for the whole area.

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

 I'm pulling for you ant!! Will this one home

I'm at 2.3 this winter. Last winter 1.8.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm at 2.3 this winter. Last winter 1.8.

I'm not much better lol

[HeadInTheClouds]

00z runs will be interesting. I'm always leery of off hour runs. 

[SBUWX23]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

00z runs will be interesting. I'm always leery of off hour runs. 

The thing here is there may be real obs now with the southern vort and northern stream the models are initializing with that are leading to the changes. I am very interested in the 00z runs, but dont expect anything significant, it may not be till tomorrow morning. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

After how bad the NAM was with the last storm (way too cold) why are people taking it seriously? The HRRR and GFS were equally as bad, they had areas that got all rain getting snow even as the event started. They even had my area getting a few of inches of snow and I didn’t see so much as a dusting. This is a classic SWFE, they almost always move north in the last 12 hours, not south and models almost always underestimate the mid-level warming in these. Rain to snow events as a general rule tend to underperform, especially with upper 40’s the day before going into it. Surface temps are going to be above freezing and ratios are going to be less than 10:1. I would wait until the 0z runs tonight and the 6z runs tomorrow morning before I spike the football

so we should not look at these models at all ? Sure they could be wrong as could any model but IF they are correct and IF this storm does bring the goods then maybe all those weenies you were handing out like peanuts might have been a mistake. Can this be a nothing burger ? Sure but as of right now the trend seems to be more southerly and snow for many on the forum rather than White rain,,,,,still time and it remains to be seen what will happen, I get it but lets track and see what the models show anyways just for shits and giggles 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Why do you follow the Weather Channel?

I follow EVERYTHING

The thing is, NO ONE seems to be right about anything anymore.

Sometimes/most of the time it seems like the best tool is our intuition (this is what I really use, the other stuff is just GIGO), when you know a pattern is bad, you know a pattern is bad and no amount of modeling is going to change my mind on that.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah who even watches that anymore (other than the general public)

It's good for entertainment and then going on their social media and making fun of them for not knowing what they're talking about.

It's even more funny when it gets to them and they respond on the air lol. I've had my tweets posted on TV a few times.

[SBUWX23]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I follow EVERYTHING

The thing is, NO ONE seems to be right about anything anymore.

Sometimes/most of the time it seems like the best tool is our intuition (this is what I really use, the other stuff is just GIGO), when you know a pattern is bad, you know a pattern is bad and no amount of modeling is going to change my mind on that.

 

 

Its easy to sit here and arm chair forecast, but I do not think some realize the pressures of professional forecasting especially in a highly populated area. To say no one is right anymore is a bit harsh. We have so much data to look at and so many variables that have to be considered. Think about how many towns, cities, etc the local NWS offices in the NE have to deal with. They are not just putting forecasts out for the general public, its also for emergency managers who need to make informed decisions. 

[North and West]

I follow EVERYTHING
The thing is, NO ONE seems to be right about anything anymore.
Sometimes/most of the time it seems like the best tool is our intuition (this is what I really use, the other stuff is just GIGO), when you know a pattern is bad, you know a pattern is bad and no amount of modeling is going to change my mind on that.
 
 

my parents are currently in Florida, and I kind of mentioned this to them when they asked about the storm. One app says one thing, another app something else.

Sometimes it’s a *feeling*; not very scientific, mind you, but some years the feel is there, some years it isn’t. The past two years it hasn’t been. For those of us old enough, we’ve seen the good and the bad, and intuition helps. It’s like a date or a job interview; sometimes you just have a feeling.


.

[North and West]

Its easy to sit here and arm chair forecast, but I do not think some realize the pressures of professional forecasting especially in a highly populated area. To say no one is right anymore is a bit harsh. We have so much data to look at and so many variables that have to be considered. Think about how many towns, cities, etc the local NWS offices in the NE have to deal with. They are not just putting forecasts out for the general public, its also for emergency managers who need to make informed decisions. 

Also, if I’m not mistaken, their first mission is to protect life and property, not so much being correct as we may think of it.


.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

Its easy to sit here and arm chair forecast, but I do not think some realize the pressures of professional forecasting especially in a highly populated area. To say no one is right anymore is a bit harsh. We have so much data to look at and so many variables that have to be considered. Think about how many towns, cities, etc the local NWS offices in the NE have to deal with. They are not just putting forecasts out for the general public, its also for emergency managers who need to make informed decisions. 

Of course you're right, especially when there are large changes over such a small area,  but it's the general impression people get is that there's a lot of waffling back and forth.  This is the kind of commentary I get from family and friends.... on a particular day it was supposed to be sunny and now it's going to be cloudy and rainy, I can't trust any forecast anymore.  This was in reference to that horribly cloudy period we had a couple weeks ago when it was cloudy for a week straight.  They plan their week around 5 or 7 day forecasts so when they went from sunny every day to cloudy every day they used it as an example of inaccurate forecasting.  A few days before the forecast was for 3 straight days of sunshine and then it went to 3 straight days of clouds when the week started.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

my parents are currently in Florida, and I kind of mentioned this to them when they asked about the storm. One app says one thing, another app something else.

Sometimes it’s a *feeling*; not very scientific, mind you, but some years the feel is there, some years it isn’t. The past two years it hasn’t been. For those of us old enough, we’ve seen the good and the bad, and intuition helps. It’s like a date or a job interview; sometimes you just have a feeling.


.

a lot of people use these 5 day and 7 day forecast apps to plan their week.  My sister, for example, wanted to work outside to do some early season yard clean up and her yard has been wet because of the excessive rainfall.  So that particular week the forecast was for clear skies after Monday.  Well, when the forecast period started the forecast changed from sunny every day to cloudy every day.  So her plans had to change.  Thats the kind of thing I'm talking about-- not necessarily snowfall amounts, but sometimes even just sky conditions.  It makes you wonder who makes those "app forecasts"

 

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Its easy to sit here and arm chair forecast, but I do not think some realize the pressures of professional forecasting especially in a highly populated area. To say no one is right anymore is a bit harsh. We have so much data to look at and so many variables that have to be considered. Think about how many towns, cities, etc the local NWS offices in the NE have to deal with. They are not just putting forecasts out for the general public, its also for emergency managers who need to make informed decisions. 

NYC is also very often the most difficult metro to forecast for winter storms. Right on the line as always. Philly/DC are a lock for rain (maybe Philly can get some snow if the south trends are real), Boston for 6+. Experience says the city maybe gets some sloppy accums but nothing significant, but 0z might change things. Fingers crossed. 

[SBUWX23]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Of course you're right, especially when there are large changes over such a small area,  but it's the general impression people get is that there's a lot of waffling back and forth.  This is the kind of commentary I get from family and friends.... on a particular day it was supposed to be sunny and now it's going to be cloudy and rainy, I can't trust any forecast anymore.  This was in reference to that horribly cloudy period we had a couple weeks ago when it was cloudy for a week straight.  They plan their week around 5 or 7 day forecasts so when they went from sunny every day to cloudy every day they used it as an example of inaccurate forecasting.  A few days before the forecast was for 3 straight days of sunshine and then it went to 3 straight days of clouds when the week started.

 

 

Its a very complex system

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA.

During heavy snow you can force the temp quickly down to 32. We have seen this in many late season events (which this basically mirrors do to the ascendant airmass)

So for the city and coast if we can get heavy rates there’s a definite upside. If all we can manage is moderate, then it’s a slushy grass and car topper. Any elevation, even a couple hundred feet could be key here. Having done snow removal for a decade on the uws, I have seen multiple events like this were we have several inches up there and CPK and midtown struggle to accumulate. Being at 150’ and just north of the main heat island helps. 
 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, North and West said:

my parents are currently in Florida, and I kind of mentioned this to them when they asked about the storm. One app says one thing, another app something else.

Sometimes it’s a *feeling*; not very scientific, mind you, but some years the feel is there, some years it isn’t. The past two years it hasn’t been. For those of us old enough, we’ve seen the good and the bad, and intuition helps. It’s like a date or a job interview; sometimes you just have a feeling.


.

in the example I outlined above I told her, listen, if you know there's going to be an east wind coming off the ocean, don't expect these partly sunny forecasts to verify.  That's where intuition comes in, when you know your local area well enough to know what an east wind can do, especially this time of year.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SBUWX23 said:

Its a very complex system

 

plus it's 3 dimensional and not just a single layer you have to keep track of, that makes it even more complex...

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

During heavy snow you can force the temp quickly down to 32. We have seen this in many late season events (which this basically mirrors do to the ascendant airmass)

So for the city and coast if we can get heavy rates there’s a definite upside. If all we can manage is moderate, then it’s a slushy grass and car topper. Any elevation, even a couple hundred feet could be key here. Having done snow removal for a decade on the uws, I have seen multiple events like this were we have several inches up there and CPK and midtown struggle to accumulate. Being at 150’ and just north of the main heat island helps. 
 

This seems like the kind of thing where you will have to be at the top of the Empire State Building to see a "snow storm" lol

[SBUWX23]

Hes sticking to his guns here and not relenting, but he needs to look lower down. there is a clear shift at 700 mb. 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This seems like the kind of thing where you will have to be at the top of the Empire State Building to see a "snow storm" lol

I listened to to Joe and Joe weather show earlier. Joe Rayo did emphasize elevation over 500' for higher snow accumulations.