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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations

Northof78

By Northof78,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
Posted

19z NBM is only 0.9". I sort of doubt the 18z NAM is in this, nor the 18z RDPS,  and so the 01z/12 NBM should come up two inches on LI, I would guess...  IF not, then I'm at a loss.  

 

If I was sitting in the seat I'd add 2" to N LI but there could be multiple reasons to remain as a minor event NYC.  Not sure...its been a pretty bumpy variable ride near I80-LI from the start. 

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Three photos from this morning:

BxEngine
BxEngine

The model output (and subsequent measuring) is not for roads. Enough. We know it wont stick as well on major roads. We dont measure on the cross bronx. If you want to discuss the dynamics, fine. But s

Rjay
Rjay

Do some of you ever stop to think?  Don't you think the same people you see down on this threat (minus snowman19) would be honking if they saw big potential?  Of course they would.  This isn't about b

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 9:16 PM, wdrag said:

19z NBM is only 0.9". I sort of doubt the 18z NAM is in this, nor the 18z RDPS,  and so the 01z/12 NBM should come up two inches on LI, I would guess...  IF not, then I'm at a loss.  

 

If I was sitting in the seat I'd add 2" to N LI but there could be multiple reasons to remain as a minor event NYC.  Not sure...its been a pretty bumpy variable ride near I80-LI from the start. 

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I would go 1-3 for NYC to start and you can always adjust .

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
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It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

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Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 9:20 PM, MJO812 said:

It's amazing how the models especially the icon has a 974 low offshore. Jeez.

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Assuming this is correct (which I've provided my reasoning as to why I do believe it is), those in Long Island need to think about driving. This is going to be very heavy, wet snow where this thumps and winds look like we will be close to very poor visibility if not the sought out and belive B word. 

I would be cognizant of this and I would do my best not to drive during this storm if possible. 

Ala Feb 2013 vibes tbh. 

EDIT : No, I am not calling for 8+ inch an hr rates rn lol. 

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jdj5211

jdj5211

Posted
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  On 2/11/2024 at 9:24 PM, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA.

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Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is....

I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
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  On 2/11/2024 at 9:27 PM, jdj5211 said:

Model temps are not an exact science....nothing is....

I'm about 4-5 degrees colder today than I was "supposed" to be....we'll see if models play temperature catchup as we get closer

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Of course the temps could be off - I do agree with Don though as I've been through so many events in the city where it was snowing with temps around 34 and got very little accumulation. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 9:16 PM, wdrag said:

19z NBM is only 0.9". I sort of doubt the 18z NAM is in this, nor the 18z RDPS,  and so the 01z/12 NBM should come up two inches on LI, I would guess...  IF not, then I'm at a loss.  

 

If I was sitting in the seat I'd add 2" to N LI but there could be multiple reasons to remain as a minor event NYC.  Not sure...its been a pretty bumpy variable ride near I80-LI from the start. 

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Seems it's omitting the ECMWF as well. 10 to 1 but better than GFS.

image.thumb.png.4d9af0e3b692600b56a56b5b6514135e.png

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 9:24 PM, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA.

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What's odd is the GFS seems to be on its own right now. All other models have at least 2 for CPK.

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
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  On 2/11/2024 at 9:31 PM, Greg g said:

I have a flight on Tuesday morning from Orlando at 7;30 landing at LaGuardia around 10:00,.. do you think I’ll still be on time or delayed or..??

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Can’t know for sure, but I’d call the airline and try to get in monday night if you can.  Less hassle. But call soon before everyone gets the same idea.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 9:24 PM, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that the low temperature during the storm is 34 on the 18z HRRR. NYC has never had a 10”+ snowfall with such temperatures. The NAM briefly dips below freezing, so its solution is more defensible based on its own numbers. Until the other guidance suggests colder readings than 34-36, it’s difficult to buy these more aggressive solutions for NYC, JFK, and LGA.

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HPN?

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
Posted
  On 2/11/2024 at 9:32 PM, North and West said:

Not sure if some you Olds recall February 5, 2001, but that was an over performer in my area, which wasn’t yet developed, and we had fight through the snow in muskets and bearskins. One of my faves.


.

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I do remember that storm. At least you guys down below had muskets and bear skins. We fought through with recurve bows made from swamp maple and battle axes with wooden handles made from ash and flint napped stone blades. We were naked except for raccoon pelts on our feet.

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