Allsnow Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:22 PM, MJO812 said: This should continue to trend south a little more. Let's see 18z and 0z. Big runs Expand Why 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:22 PM, MJO812 said: This should continue to trend south a little more. Let's see 18z and 0z. Big runs Expand Time to enjoy the afternoon and evening on Super Bowl Sunday. Not even gonna look at a crazy 18z NAM run lol. I'll be back to look at the 0z runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:22 PM, MJO812 said: This should continue to trend south a little more. Let's see 18z and 0z. Big runs Expand it could also bump north. these changes are noise. euro still has temps too high in the city area. yes i know dynamical cooling etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:10 PM, mikem81 said: ERUO just shifted 30-50 miles south or so... One more of those and NYC is in the game, but that is a big ask Expand The euro is enough to put I80 through the immediate northern suburbs in the game. NYC would need a bit of a tick south but the bigger question is this a wobble or a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Barring another north shift (definitely possible) this is probably the most significant snowfall SE of I287 in 2 years. Strong off shore low, no mid and upper level temp problems. The only issue is surface but that could be overcome with good rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 5:20 PM, LibertyBell said: Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa. You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info. 1) They have said for days this is a noreaster 2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....) 3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm. I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information. Expand Why do you follow the Weather Channel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:19 PM, North and West said: The Weather Channel isn’t what it used to be. (*what it was thirty years ago) . Expand yeah who even watches that anymore (other than the general public) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 At this point, cityfolk and LI peeps should hopefully have their expectations in check. Could the modest south trend continue and make Tuesday fun (not that fun though)? Sure. It could go the other way too. I don't think either direction is likely at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Speaking of TWC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:57 PM, Metasequoia said: At this point, cityfolk and LI peeps should hopefully have their expectations in check. Could the modest south trend continue and make Tuesday fun (not that fun though)? Sure. It could go the other way too. I don't think either direction is likely at this point. Expand Just for context. Its about 25 miles as the crow flies from White Plains to JFK. If the wind is out of the NE (with water temps in the low 40s anyway) it will really just come down to the track of the LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Majority of eps members are off the SNJ coast now. Another shift south on eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 EPS mean bumped south. 5-6 for nyc on 10-1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:11 PM, MJO812 said: Majority of eps members are off the SNJ coast now. Another shift south on eps Expand 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 That is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Definitely some idv on the eps that look like the ukmet cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 To be honest, I also have not seen the UKIE/CMC and EURO/GFS been so far apart in the scenarios as they were yesterday. It seems that at 12Z today they are all finally getting closer with a LP track somewhere between Cape May (EURO/GS) and Ocean City (CMC/UKIE) and then heading ENE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:13 PM, Allsnow said: Expand the WB maps show very little difference between 10:1 and Kuchera which is surprising with temps 34-36F during the snow; the Pivotal maps show a ~50% difference, at least along 95, where the ratios are likely to be the worst (vs 78 and north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:11 PM, MJO812 said: Majority of eps members are off the SNJ coast now. Another shift south on eps Expand Did you see the GEPS/CMCE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:30 PM, Tatamy said: Did you see the GEPS/CMCE? Expand Same as eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 6:53 PM, Brian5671 said: yeah who even watches that anymore (other than the general public) Expand That's just it though - if everyone other than the 0.000001% of America on boards like this are watching, they'll do pretty well. So everyone else can watch TWC, and we can watch here. Works for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 We had 3 inches last storm on the north shore. Not sure we can top that here but I think 3” is again doable on the grass LIE north. I think 3” is the ceiling and 1” the floor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Lr hrrr is well south 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:53 PM, binbisso said: Lr hrrr is well south Expand HRRR always too cold and snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:53 PM, binbisso said: Lr hrrr is well southI would thoroughly enjoy being surprised, but if we get 16” out this in Morristown, then I’m also playing in the Super Bowl this evening whilst dating a billionaire pop star.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 The HRRR is interesting and certainly possible if we get a bombing 980mb low at the position. 18Z NAM running now. Time to start looking at the meso models as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:54 PM, psv88 said: HRRR always too cold and snowy Expand Nam is also coming south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 Warnings out in pink. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 7:59 PM, MJO812 said: Nam is also coming south Expand Don’t fall for it man. 1-3” is what you should be expecting for city and coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 8:03 PM, psv88 said: Don’t fall for it man. 1-3” is what you should be expecting for city and coast Expand Yes right now but we have seen shifts close to the event . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2024 Share Posted February 11, 2024 On 2/11/2024 at 8:03 PM, psv88 said: Don’t fall for it man. 1-3” is what you should be expecting for city and coast Expand I'd kill for that. Given the temperatures to start, dry midlevels at the storms closest approach (that aspect is always undermodeled)- then it'll take some time to moisten the columns again and by then the storm is moving east quickly and it'll be daytime anyways so it'll likely be white rain. If NYC records an inch, I'll consider it a win. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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