HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Metasequoia said: TWT has always been about grabbing eyeballs, as one would expect from a company, for good or bad. Less so about their actual forecasts. This is true but they are in the business of accurate forecasts. Haven't watched that channel in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Will depend when Central Park measures if they get anything more then a trace form this storm Midtown might not have any accumulation unless it pounds. It’s always tough to stick there and this will be a very marginal setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Tougher call for the N Shore, Northern NYC and I-80 in NJ, slight south shifts can bring them in the game for 3-6”. But I-84 corridor looks golden for this and has for days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The DPs on the 12Z GFS and NAM do look cold enough for snow in NYC if the rates are there but we are still a long way off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This actually could be a JFK 1 inch, HPN 6 inch type storm. The upper levels are fine so the small differences in surface immediate coast vs just inland could make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Tougher call for the N Shore, Northern NYC and I-80 in NJ, slight south shifts can bring them in the game for 3-6”. But I-84 corridor looks golden for this and has for days. Agree it does look trickier for the above region than I initially thought. The gradient should be somewhere near I80 latitude and then ENE of there if the current track holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: NAM stayed south and GFS shifted south along with its Ensembles - waiting on 12Z EURO Where exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Not every model run is going to be exactly the same. I see no real difference except 12z nam is a little west with the low and GFS a tad east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It looks cold enough for snow... Sneaky warm layers near the coast at 750-800 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro going to bump south this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro going to bump south this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 So so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Euro south - today we are on a south trend mainly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 ERUO just shifted 30-50 miles south or so... One more of those and NYC is in the game, but that is a big ask 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: ERUO just shifted 30-50 miles south or so... One more of those and NYC is in the game, but that is a big ask mesoscale models should be trusted more starting at 0Z within 36 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 36 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Seems to start a little inside the benchmark which is a problem for NYC and points south. Also the airmass is mariginal. It will flip to snow everywhere but is this a mostly rain/white rain to 1-2 inches backend deal or a bombing out something bigger deal is the uncertainty. I think them relying so much on the benchmark as a delineator of where it will snow vs where it will rain or mix is a bad idea. We have seen storms that came right across Long Island be mostly snow (Millenium storm) and we've seen offshore storms be mostly rain. It all has to do with the antecedent airmass. I think if you asked experts what determines whether it will snow or not, the number one answer would be the airmass in place as the storm comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Major improvement for 95/coast in particular...although this is 10:1 and with surface temps around 34-36F while it's snowing, these numbers would likely be about half what is shown for 95/coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro going to bump south this run Do you think our area can pull off 2 or 3 inches? The significant snow will be to the north, but I'm hoping we can get a couple inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 32 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Cool. Yep that was me and still is, lol. I used to have a website at Merck where I'd post snowfall info and forecasts from the NWS and other pros (I linked to this site and pro sites all the time; I also did/do tropical weather), as well as trying to explain what was going on (and the various outcome probabilities) to mostly non-scientists and people could sign up for email notifications when I had an update - had about 750 people on that list when I retired and of those I now have about 200 people from work (many I never knew) on my weather emails (also have a family/friends list of about 200). Started doing this about 25 years ago when I was on the site crisis management team (which included snowstorm impacts). And there's FB and a couple of RU sports boards where I post similar info. Keeps me busy, lol. I don't post these long weather posts here because 90% of posters already know what's going on. Can you share the name or IM it? Just curious who it is. Sent you a message. Knew it had to be you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, winterwx21 said: Do you think our area can pull off 2 or 3 inches? The significant snow will be to the north, but I'm hoping we can get a couple inches here. Idk, I guess I like a coating to an inch on the grass for us. I need to see more shifts tomorrow before thinking 2-3 IMO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe they meant the 95 corridor in New England. Probably, but it's still deceptive to say that since they always talk about the snowfall drought of I-95 and always refer to NYC, Philly, Baltimore, DC, etc. al. Plus whenever the "benchmark track" is mentioned it's always in relation to coastal areas around here getting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Allsnow said: Idk, I guess I like a coating to an inch on the grass for us. I need to see more shifts tomorrow before thinking 2-3 IMO Yeah I think a coating to 2 inches is a good forecast for our area right now, but hoping it trends a little better so we can increase it to 1 to 3 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: dont think its snowing that far west at 21z. that is a 6 hour avg ptype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If you get a bombing low at the right location then it will snow and stick to mostly colder surfaces. We have had positive busts in the past but I know people are scares to say so since the winters have sucked for the past 2 years. I will continue to track this along with others who want to . It's a long shot but we do have a chance.(Unfortunately, until it happens, I don’t). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said: dont think its snowing that far west at 21z. that is a 6 hour avg ptype. Agreed. Just showing the final two frames 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa. You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info. 1) They have said for days this is a noreaster 2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....) 3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm. I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information. The Weather Channel isn’t what it used to be. (*what it was thirty years ago). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This should continue to trend south a little more. Let's see 18z and 0z. Big runs 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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