LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Very preliminary I’d say 1-3” for the north shore away from the city, maybe an inch if lucky in the city and south shore. 3-6” north of the Tappan Zee and 6-12” near I-84. Sounds about right, I’m going for 1-2” here on the far uws, where we usually do far better then the south shore in this type of setup. So based on that, a coating or zip on the south shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Ukie not budging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Sounds about right, I’m going for 1-2” here on the far uws, where we usually do far better then the south shore in this type of setup. So based on that, a coating or zip on the south shore. I think this surprises. Cold air is not fleeting. If we get a good track with a bombing low then we will do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 First and Final Call: S LI/C NJ Coast: C-2” N LI/NYC/Immediate NJ suburbs/C NJ: 1-3” N/C NJ ( N of 78/W of GSP), to 287 in S NY State: 3-5” N/W NJ, N of 287 in NY State: 4-8” Should be an interesting, dynamic coastal storm, and could be largest this year for some on the forum 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, MJO812 said: I think this surprises. Cold air is not fleeting. If we get a good track with a bombing low then we will do well. Think mid March storm. Urban nyc is really going to struggle with temps. To me this is a 3” in the NW Bronx and zip in midtown type scenario. We are really going to be relying on heavy banding as the low is pulling away for anything meaningful closer to the coast. Is it possible of course. But could easily be white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think this surprises. Cold air is not fleeting. If we get a good track with a bombing low then we will do well. Where is the cold air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Where is the cold air? its on the 10:1 snow maps so it must be real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Warm air aloft gains latitude due to the Low position. Off the Jersey coast not an all snow look. If this storm exited the Delmarva it would be a snowier outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Where is the cold air? It should generate it once the storm bombs . Need more push south though Models aren't always right. Remember that. Anyway let me check this with others who want to track this. Be back tonight. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2/11 16z NBE for NYC: 1.3” (was 1.7” at 12z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: its on the 10:1 snow maps so it must be real. If you get a bombing low at the right location then it will snow and stick to mostly colder surfaces. We have had positive busts in the past but I know people are scares to say so since the winters have sucked for the past 2 years. I will continue to track this along with others who want to . It's a long shot but we do have a chance. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: this storm is going to become a nowcasting event with possible surprises Ah, the famous nowcasting...( ie the storm is kinda hard to predict, but there won't be much IMBY lol ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, SBUWX23 said: weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast. Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa. You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info. 1) They have said for days this is a noreaster 2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....) 3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm. I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ukie nice hit pike SE, it’s late to party like cmc The overwhelming majority of 12z trends is colder and south . 3km nam seems to be warm outlier for now… here’s our map from last night.. I said 35% chance we’d move it south , looks like we will move it south a bit if current trends hold. From NE forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Interesting CMC has been abysmal with this storm. Ens prob above gives NYC metro nearly 100% of >1 but gives places south of Albany less chance. Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa. You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info. 1) They have said for days this is a noreaster 2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....) 3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm. I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information. omg just now on the air they said it is passing right over the benchmark and will be a big snowstorm for the I-95 corridor. Despite whatever their maps show this is what they have been saying for days now with their mouths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: omg just now on the air they said it is passing right over the benchmark and will be a big snowstorm for the I-95 corridor. Despite whatever their maps show this is what they have been saying for days now with their mouths. Weird... Their forecast for NYC is 1 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 47 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Sounds about right, I’m going for 1-2” here on the far uws, where we usually do far better then the south shore in this type of setup. So based on that, a coating or zip on the south shore. Seems the same story every storm the past two winters. A nothing event at the immediate coast, a nuisance event just inland, and big snows NW of I287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: Weird... Their forecast for NYC is 1 to 3 inches. Yeah but meanwhile their on camera "talent" is still saying (as of 5 minutes ago lol) "big I-95 snowstorm passing over the benchmark"-- makes you wonder how well they know the geography up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Some still think it will pass off the DelMarVa. You guys have to start criticizing the weather channel, they are spreading false info. 1) They have said for days this is a noreaster 2) They have said for days this is passing south and east of the benchmark "ensuring mostly snow for the coast" (their words....) 3) They have said for days now that this is a "monster" I-95 snowstorm. I went at them on social media telling them that they make a good case for why people from the south have no clue what an I-95 snowstorm or noreaster even is and why people in Atlanta have no business making weather forecasts for the northeast. So while we can blame "weenies" the real people to blame, once again, is the media, for spreading false information. It might be mostly snow but it's going to be white rain for a while near the coast. I'll admit the models are sorta all over the place with this so I still don't know if it could surprise but without much cold air I usually lean climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yeah but meanwhile their on camera "talent" is still saying (as of 5 minutes ago lol) "big I-95 snowstorm passing over the benchmark"-- makes you wonder how well they know the geography up here? Seems to start a little inside the benchmark which is a problem for NYC and points south. Also the airmass is mariginal. It will flip to snow everywhere but is this a mostly rain/white rain to 1-2 inches backend deal or a bombing out something bigger deal is the uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Seems the same story every storm the past two winters. A nothing event at the immediate coast, a nuisance event just inland, and big snows NW of I287. Lol that was my experience my entire childhood, "snow will be north and west....". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Where is the south shift that some speak of? I see none of this at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 TWT has always been about grabbing eyeballs, as one would expect from a company, for good or bad. Less so about their actual forecasts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Weird... Their forecast for NYC is 1 to 3 inches. thats considered a big snowstorm in NYC nowadays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Weird... Their forecast for NYC is 1 to 3 inches. Maybe they meant the 95 corridor in New England. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Actually I looked at the track a bit more closely. That track and strength on the CMC and GFS should be mostly snow from roughly I80 latitude and north of there changing to snow for everyone as the storm progresses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 48 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Was taking a walk this morning with a friend I met in the mall...she works at Merck. Started talking about how warm its been and how it might snow this week: she said there used to be a guy at work who would keep everyone informed about snow amounts and what to expect, but the guy retired and it seems like it hasn't snowed since.....thought you might get a laugh outta that. Cool. Yep that was me and still is, lol. I used to have a website at Merck where I'd post snowfall info and forecasts from the NWS and other pros (I linked to this site and pro sites all the time; I also did/do tropical weather), as well as trying to explain what was going on (and the various outcome probabilities) to mostly non-scientists and people could sign up for email notifications when I had an update - had about 750 people on that list when I retired and of those I now have about 200 people from work (many I never knew) on my weather emails (also have a family/friends list of about 200). Started doing this about 25 years ago when I was on the site crisis management team (which included snowstorm impacts). And there's FB and a couple of RU sports boards where I post similar info. Keeps me busy, lol. I don't post these long weather posts here because 90% of posters already know what's going on. Can you share the name or IM it? Just curious who it is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Where is the south shift that some speak of? I see none of this at 12z. NAM stayed south and GFS shifted south along with its Ensembles - waiting on 12Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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