MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Nam might be right Let's pray 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milleand Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 NAM LOL 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, milleand said: NAM LOL You can’t shovel the NAM. This is THAT run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Well at least we have the NAM on our side. Also nice that it goes down to 31-32F for 95 from Trenton to NYC between 4 and 7 am and stays there, so we shouldn't have much trouble accumulating with good intensity snowfall (6+" in <6 hrs) and cold surface temps. Soundings also look good along 95 with sleet at 4 am then snow the rest of the way with a column well below 32F. Ratios are also pretty good even for 95 (0.8-0.9 if one believes the Kuchera), but a lot lower at the NJ coast. As modeled of course. How do we make this happen? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam might be right Let's pray Whatever. We be done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Since it’s an all rain event it won’t make any difference lol I love the whiplash emotions on this forum. For reference, I posted AccuWeather 1 to 2 inch call several days ago. They have been spot on all year. And I love how rocksteady they have been run after run after run after run of models and the whiplashing emotions on this page. Let me tell you what’s gonna happen next in case you haven’t watched this show before. the models are gonna go south again and all these guys that want snow in the city are going to jump on board thinking it’s finally gonna happen. …And it wont. And some lawn either side of 287 will get a 2 inch snow fall. The reason that it will happen like that is because the city is running 5° above normal this winter. And it’s too warm to snow in an urban environment with temps like that The end What a winter on this forum! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I love the whiplash emotions on this forum. For reference, I posted AccuWeather 1 to 2 inch call several days ago. They have been spot on all year. And I love how rocksteady they have been run after run after run after run of models and the whiplashing emotions on this page. Let me tell you what’s gonna happen next in case you haven’t watched this show before. the models are gonna go south again and all these guys that want snow in the city are going to jump on board thinking it’s finally gonna happen. …And it wont. And some lawn either side of 287 will get a 2 inch snow fall. the reason that it will happen like that is because the city is running 5° above normal. And it’s too warm to snow in an urban environment with temps like that The end What a winter on this forum! 90% of us have been steady and clear eyed. The other 10% are all over the map and scream the loudest. you are absolutely correct. We need cold air for snow…it’s that simple. People for some reason forget this… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looking forward to a sloppy inch or two in morris county nj. Should be a really nice storm for 84 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, psv88 said: 90% of us have been steady and clear eyed. The other 10% are all over the map and scream the loudest. you are absolutely correct. We need cold air for snow…it’s that simple. People for some reason forget this… i’m walking the dog right now in shorts. It’s become a regular thing this winter at 287. Forget the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Upton point and click is for 1-3” here, think that will be coming down at next update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upton point and click is for 1-3” here, think that will be coming down at next update Their deterministic forecast on the snow forecast map is only around 1.5 near you. The ranges in the point and click seem broader than the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Their deterministic forecast on the snow forecast map is only around 1.5 near you. The ranges in the point and click seem broader than the maps. So why not do 1-2” like they have further north and south of me? fwiw my p and C hourly shows a total of 1.7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, psv88 said: So why not do 1-2” like they have further north and south of me? fwiw my p and C hourly shows a total of 1.7” Not sure what's going on there but the point click ranges seem broader then the maps do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Not sure what's going on there but the point click ranges seem broader then the maps do. My point and click in Southern Rockland is 4-8” and WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NEG NAO said: Frustrating man Every friggin storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, NEG NAO said: Head to Boston. This one’ll finally work out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Losing a lot of respect for the CMC with this one. It's either going to pull off a major coup or it's been just absolutely awful with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, MJO812 said: Frustrating man Every friggin storm not surprising for several reasons - main one being no established cold air in front of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Losing a lot of respect for the CMC with this one. It's either going to pull off a major coup or it's been just absolutely awful with this one. its holding hands right now with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Losing a lot of respect for the CMC with this one. It's either going to pull off a major coup or it's been just absolutely awful with this one. I-84 corridor is where the best spots been for days now. Is what it is, head fakes from crap models as they are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Head to Boston. This one’ll finally work out there. How about 45 mile north with that 12 spot in Orange County. The fascination with people on this board with Boston still amazes me. So you'd rather drive 200 miles to get less snow than 45 miles to get more snow in your own backyard. The majority on this forum seem to think that way. I don't get it. It's like the HV past Rockland and Westchester doesn't exist. Weird. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its holding hands right now with the NAM Seems like even the nam is based more in reality than the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 If the Euro comes south at 0Z we still have a chance - but starting tomorrow at 12Z mesoscale models should be used....... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: How about 45 mile north with that 12 spot in Orange County. The fascination with people on this board with Boston still amazes me. So you'd rather drive 200 miles to get less snow than 45 miles to get more snow in your own backyard. The majority on this forum seem to think that way. I don't get it. It's like the HV past Rockland and Westchester doesn't exist. Weird. Your right people forget about the areas NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Time for bed No point staying up late for the models anymore since this storm us bad for the coast. Night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, psv88 said: 90% of us have been steady and clear eyed. The other 10% are all over the map and scream the loudest. you are absolutely correct. We need cold air for snow…it’s that simple. People for some reason forget this… pun intended? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Some hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Some hope Thought you said good night? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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