HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It doesn't look good but it's still not over for NYC metro. Maybe 1-3. Still no consensus among models. It's basically Euro/GFS/ICON vs CMC/NAM/Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how this happens all the time. What's the point of tracking a storm over 120 hours out , heck even 84 hours. None. This has been like a broken record for two years now. At this point I will wait til after something happens before I get interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Maybe, winters tend to have a theme. Hopefully next year is our next 20/21. la ninas after el ninos tend to be really good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Seems like now would have been a good time to start tracking. A few days out, still lots of variability amongst models, but general agreement on some basics such as timing, duration, etc. Couldn't agree more... however, once the cat is out of the bag... This system is not gospel today once way or the other. Just need to ride out the variability. Very sensitive interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I'm still holding out a bit of hope that EPS will be south of op similar to yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: The 353AM attached.Ihavent checked for an update. In my opinion as I do my own non AMWX posts... once/day is enough... that steadies out all the model fluctuations and tends to keep my group on message whether its trending up or down. Thanks Walt, MPO seems to be the place to be for this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 39 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: You get too invested. You say this every Storm, the models change an flip flop so much. Can't get too invested until 72 hrs prior, sure you can track but no sense of living an dying with every model run Got to know your climo too-city and coast are unlikely to do well with an airmass that is 50-60 degrees going into a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 38 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least. 61 here-cleaned out the garage this morning lol. The snow removal stuff has dust on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Years of disappointment and north trends have us all pessimistic. I don’t have a good feeling about this one Nice, solid 1-3 inch storm for…drum roll…287! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 whos coming to the nearest bridge? this winter absolutely sucks! Didn’t think it could be worse than last year. the dreaded trend north has commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro EPS looks like. I suspect this might bring people back from the ledges... for good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Metasequoia said: Will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro EPS looks like. I suspect this might bring people back from the ledges... for good or bad. This close in its rare to see them be that different than the Op but given how much the Op jumped they probably will be somewhat south of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 61 here-cleaned out the garage this morning lol. The snow removal stuff has dust on it. frankly, you’re lucky. If you live down in the city, I don’t think my parents have had to appreciably clean any snow in years at least being north you’ve seen something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 32 minutes ago, Northof78 said: 3-5" for NYC from both the EURO/GFS and the most north models...seems like a good start for accumulation potential I dont think there is nearly enough respect for Positive snow depth change, ESPECIALLY the gradient edge where temps are a possible accum factor. Gradient is where the largest errors occur. You can go 10 to 1 in colder thickness below 540 but not above. That's why the NWS uses ratios in small increments to match temp/type/vertical thermal profile. It's not the old days... we now have better techniques to attempt the reality. Referencing 10 to 1 in warmer side of the gradient is not my choice. I've seen comment about big snowfall rates overcoming but what if that very strong lift ends up north of NYC? Then it's harder to accum. I may learn my lesson, but for now 12z/10 Canadian is pathetic, ensembles not too good I80 south except the more robust EPS and so prior reputation for the Euro warrants keeping that in mind. I've lost faith in the Euro and notice that even though the GES is not a great flag for events...it's GEFS Positive Snow Depth Change has been better than the Euro in my opinion. NBM is still up for 2-3" so not all is lost. I will keep an eye on GEFS positive snow depth change and if it grows... NYC good, but otherwise we need the Canadian on board. I can only think the Canadian will move its solutions north and snowier on the edge in the next couple of cycles. I'll check back tomorrow morning. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's amazing how this north trend happens all the time after people ( yes myself also ) gets excited about model runs over 120 hours showing good stuff. And it's like no lessons are ever learned 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: And it's like no lessons are ever learned We tried to tell em. We get yelled at and called names. After 25 years you figure you would learn SOMETHING about the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 61 here-cleaned out the garage this morning lol. The snow removal stuff has dust on it. My shovel has been sitting in my storage room for 2 years now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I haven't followed this super closely but seems models are way apart on this so don't know what to think. I know most storms end up north and amped but the RGEM/CMC being so surpressed makes me question it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 22 minutes ago, wdrag said: I dont think there is nearly enough respect for Positive snow depth change, ESPECIALLY the gradient edge where temps are a possible accum factor. Gradient is where the largest errors occur. You can go 10 to 1 in colder thickness below 540 but not above. That's why the NWS uses ratios in small increments to match temp/type/vertical thermal profile. It's not the old days... we now have better techniques to attempt the reality. Referencing 10 to 1 in warmer side of the gradient is not my choice. I've seen comment about big snowfall rates overcoming but what if that very strong lift ends up north of NYC? Then it's harder to accum. I may learn my lesson, but for now 12z/10 Canadian is pathetic, ensembles not too good I80 south except the more robust EPS and so prior reputation for the Euro warrants keeping that in mind. I've lost faith in the Euro and notice that even though the GES is not a great flag for events...it's GEFS Positive Snow Depth Change has been better than the Euro in my opinion. NBM is still up for 2-3" so not all is lost. I will keep an eye on GEFS positive snow depth change and if it grows... NYC good, but otherwise we need the Canadian on board. I can only think the Canadian will move its solutions north and snowier on the edge in the next couple of cycles. I'll check back tomorrow morning. A Euro/GFS scenario verbatim is probably more realistically 1-3 inches on colder surfaces for NYC. There would be some decent snow likely on the back end but it would warm and rainy for a while. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 14 hours ago, psv88 said: All winter? We’ve had a total of one snow threat which was a few slushy inches for the coast. What am I missing? 20 miles north of you we’ve had three events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I'll add the new WPC low chance of 3+" NYC after 12z Wed by a very good WPC forecaster-collaborator. So there is hope - it isnt over. Need to watch the trends but allow for noise 20 mi fluctuations until 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 My thinking best chances for 2-4" starts along I80 and west of 287 for the NJ crew. First call for my area 2 to perhaps as much as 4". Thinking 1/2" to 1" of slop NYC/LI and immediate NJ burbs EWR area. 1-2" interior NE NJ. Subject to some adjustment but not envisioning 6" or more outside of NW Sussex on north and east from there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Thing is unfortunately next time will trend north too and screw us. Disaster of a winter that can’t end soon enough. Nice mild day today at least. The trends are usually north even in good winters which is why you almost always want a suppressed look several days in advance. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 20 miles north of you we’ve had three events. “Events” we’ve had 3 events too. 5”’of snow. What’s your total? Over 15”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My shovel has been sitting in my storage room for 2 years now. I get you guys on the coast have had it the worst but 45 miles NNW of NYC I had 14 inches in January as did most north and west of me. And yes it's still a horrible winter although January was a C- it would have been a B if it wasn't so damn mild which seems to be the new norm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 My shovel has been sitting in my storage room for 2 years now. do you live in Florida?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I get you guys on the coast have had it the worst but 45 miles NNW of NYC I had 14 inches in January as did most north and west of me. And yes it's still a horrible winter although January was a C- it would have been a B if it wasn't so damn mild which seems to be the new norm. You also average twice as much snow per year…our average is 30” and we have 5” so far…it’s all relative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: “Events” we’ve had 3 events too. 5”’of snow. What’s your total? Over 15”? not even. all 2-3 inch events. you are running +5 for the winter. 287 is the new coast with that. accept it and move on. Wishing for unicorns in city. My Hydrangea bush has buds on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, wdrag said: The 353AM attached.Ihavent checked for an update. In my opinion as I do my own non AMWX posts... once/day is enough... that steadies out all the model fluctuations and tends to keep my group on message whether its trending up or down. Agreed, 100% Walt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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