ForestHillWx Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Icon seems reluctant to let go of that primary low that it drives into Altoona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Wow. Best looking probability map in years for the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Gfs more north Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs more north Not good Yeah CPK drops from 2.6 to 2.1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, MJO812 said: Gfs more north Not good just like I predicted a few minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah CPK drops from 2.6 to 2.1. Cmc is like the rgem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, NEG NAO said: just like I predicted a few minutes ago Models are still all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: just like I predicted a few minutes ago Eh, really depends on what the EURO does. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Eh, really depends on what the EURO does. Depends on what the confluence does. It lets go whatsoever and we’re toast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Also, the GFS move SLIGHTLY north. It's not like it was a jump. Could be noise or a trend. Too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 this small move north means a lot for the metro and now even N/W. More of that and its white rain for many. On to the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Lol the GDPS is a scraper. Actually south and weaker. 1 to 3 for central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Lol the GDPS is a scraper. Actually south and weaker. 1 to 3 for central Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Lol the GDPS is a scraper. Actually south and weaker. 1 to 3 for central Jersey. Yeah wow. WTF with this storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Obviously I weigh the GFS higher than the Canadian, however there is no clear trend yet between the three major models. All depends on EURO. If it moves north than yes concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 NWS Mt. Holly new snow map issued at 9:53am this morning has cut my snow totals in half. From 6-8" to now 3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 NAM/RGEM/CMC south/surpressed, EURO/GFS middle ground, ICON far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Obviously I weigh the GFS higher than the Canadian, however there is no clear trend yet between the three major models. All depends on EURO. If it moves north than yes concerning. Trend is not our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 CMC changes it over to snow even well south of the city, but the problem is the period of snow is too brief before it pulls out. So it isn't significant. So far the 12z models don't look great. Maybe last night was a tease, but we'll see what Euro shows this afternoon. We know how thread the needle this event is. Some people here have said a slushy inch or two on colder surfaces. Right now I think that's a good early call, but we hope to get lucky with something more significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Quick question… why does everyone post model runs and then in the same turn talk about how awful said model is? If terrible, why share?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, NEG NAO said: Trend is not our friend Yeah, we lose with the GFS and the Canadian in opposite directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: NAM/RGEM/CMC south/surpressed, EURO/GFS middle ground, ICON far north CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/snow line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, NEG NAO said: CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/smpw line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass It did move south wrt low pressure location. Yes weaker. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/snow line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass it is suppressed with everything. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: CMC is not suppressed at 12Z with the rain/snow line just weak no dynamics in mild airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 10, 2024 Author Share Posted February 10, 2024 GFS shows a nice CCB (-3F 850) with snows as low exists to the NE south of us...has about 3-5" for NYC and more to the N/W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 I have to think the GFS/Euro idea is right here but that CMC run is a huge forehead scratcher this close in. Maybe these south outliers mean GFS/Euro are too amped, I can hope anyway. But it can easily rampage north at 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 Just now, jm1220 said: I have to think the GFS/Euro idea is right here but that CMC run is a huge forehead scratcher this close in. Maybe these south outliers mean GFS/Euro are too amped, I can hope anyway. But it can easily rampage north at 0z. whatever happens its obvious its another no big deal event with NYC measuring less then 2 inches snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2024 Share Posted February 10, 2024 looking down the road to next weekend there will be no suppression and the rain/snow line uncomfortably close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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