Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Surprised no one posted the control, it’s 10:1 but is basically the extended euro. This was a sick run for your region . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 ^ that looks really good. wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 8 minutes ago, snobal said: ^ that looks really good. wow I'll give it another 24 hours before diving in. Won't take much of a late bump north to turn it lame near/south of I-80. Need the confluence to hold on. We already did see one system this winter tick south at the end due to strong confluence and hit S NJ/DC area so it's possible but more often we see the late amped/north trend and this might be a much stronger system. I-84 to I-90 corridor is in the best spot for this IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: FWIW, probably not a lot, ICON looked a little better at 18z. Don't underestimate it, 2024 will be the year of the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Nam is much further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I have a feeling this is the type of storm they forecast 2-4 but it ends up being 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Nam is much further south NAM is not to be trusted within 24 hour range let alone 84. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, David-LI said: I have a feeling this is the type of storm they forecast 2-4 but it ends up being 8-10 From your lips to God's ears. If this does track far enough south I'm in a pretty good spot to make lemonade out of crap marginal conditions initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, David-LI said: NAM is not to be trusted within 24 hour range let alone 84. You can say that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: You can say that again It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, EastonSN+ said: It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter. you can say that again......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 59 minutes ago, Heisy said: Surprised no one posted the control, it’s 10:1 but is basically the extended euro. This was a sick run for your region I'd be more excited if this was Sunday night not Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's illegal to not get NAM'd at least once a winter. This is third time we’ve gotten NAM’d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 RGEM looks okay but slight bump north would screw most of us probably. Warmish to start in the city but would probably switch to heavy snow pretty quickly. ICON went back north at 0z to congrats I-90. GFS coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, David-LI said: I have a feeling this is the type of storm they forecast 2-4 but it ends up being 8-10 Snow or rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS is a beaut. 975 at the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: GFS is a beaut. 975 at the BM. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: GFS is a beaut. 975 at the BM. Cmc caved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: GFS is a beaut. 975 at the BM. if you are inland - coast will have a slushy couple inches at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I have to say, one thing that does perplex me are the official forecasts (NWS, TWC, and the cable weather news networks) calling for almost nothing here in NYC. Over the last 24-36 hours, almost every model run has shown 5+ for NYC. I wonder what their rationale is. Maybe the north trend will continue, or lack of cold air leading up to the storm? Seems to be a big disconnect between the model data and the humans that are making the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 GFS also went north from 18z. Still verbatim OK for the city but based on a late change to snow and pounding for a few hours it seems. If other models follow tonight it's clear where this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc caved That’s not a bad look. 32 line is right near NYC, and there’s heavy precipitation during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, MJO812 said: Not gonna be 10-1 I mean a 2-4" storm is meh. See what euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said: I have to say, one thing that does perplex me are the official forecasts (NWS, TWC, and the cable weather news networks) calling for almost nothing here in NYC. Over the last 24-36 hours, almost every model run has shown 5+ for NYC. I wonder what their rationale is. Maybe the north trend will continue, or lack of cold air leading up to the storm? Seems to be a big disconnect between the model data and the humans that are making the forecast. Marginal temps, snow maps aren't going to account for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Thats for the city and its snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Krs4Lfe said: I have to say, one thing that does perplex me are the official forecasts (NWS, TWC, and the cable weather news networks) calling for almost nothing here in NYC. Over the last 24-36 hours, almost every model run has shown 5+ for NYC. I wonder what their rationale is. Maybe the north trend will continue, or lack of cold air leading up to the storm? Seems to be a big disconnect between the model data and the humans that are making the forecast. We have initial lousy temps that the storm will have to overcome even if it does track favorably and bomb out which is another big question. The low/lame predictions for NYC at this point are totally justified. There's the rabbit out of the hat chance it comes together but we all know what the odds favor and who they favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Nibor said: Marginal temps, snow maps aren't going to account for that. Even still, taking the latest GFS verbatim, that’s some pretty heavy snowfall at around 33 degrees or so. Accuweather calling for about an inch or so. Now if the storm trends more north, then all bets are off. But verbatim, that looks like some pretty heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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