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2/13 Significant/Major Winter Storm Discussion & Observations


Northof78
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As per the last several GFS runs, for the 18Z GFS, verbatim, we're looking at 90% of the 7-8" (what falls at 10:1) of 95 corridor snow falling from 4 am to 10 am for >1"/hour rates at slightly above 32F, but at those intensities, I would expect easy accumulation and we might even be pleasantly surprised with better than Kuchera ratios (which look to be in the 0.7-0.8 range), once accumulation gets going (have seen this before with high intensity systems with marginal surface temps, but cold columns with good crystal growth in the DGZ). Soundings do look like a brief (hopefully) period of sleet after the changeover.  If intensity is lower or we get an extended warm nose or any number of other things, accumulation will be much harder, but as modeled, I think we'd get decent accumulations. 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

I have no clue why meteorologists go so conservative at times.

Well, to be fair, for the last 2+ years most winter storms have underperformed vs. what forecasts predicted, some terribly so, so people get gunshy and would rather predict 2-4" and then have to bump that up to 4-8" early in a storm than to have to have a 4-8" storm fizzle down to 1-2".  I get it.  

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15 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I must say, AccuWeather has been spot on this winter with the amount of snow that we have gotten here in Westchester.

They are calling for 1 inch of snow on Tuesday. Take that for what it’s worth.

I'll have to agree. They have been good with snowfall amounts for my area this year. They're calling for 3-6" here right now. 

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