Albedoman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: The fall line is the 95 corridor for the purposes of weather along the eastern seaboard and especially from DC to Boston. More formally it's where the coastal plain meets the Piedmont and just NW of the fall line is where elevations start to increase and the fall line is often along rivers, like the Delaware in SNJ/SEPA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Seaboard_Fall_Line for us physical geographers -- South Mountain Range in eastern PA is what usually defines where the typical snow falls elevation driven and where it does not In NJ, the south mountain range extends into Highlands and usually is the demarcation line 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: whats a DT ? …. As always…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 gfs bombs away nj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 What a nuke on the gfs. Been crazy consistent just minor waffles and other guidance coming south. Could it score a rare coup here? I pray to the weather weenie's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Icon ensembles are southeast of op 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, vegan_edible said: gfs bombs away nj Such pretty colors 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Gefs going to be slightly south Looks good for president day storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 confluence keeps increasing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs going to be slightly south Looks good for president day storm Presidents Day storm is too far out to even speculate on IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Such pretty colors Long Island lol-- I take it the model only sees ocean there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Presidents Day storm is too far out to even speculate on IMO The outcome with this storm will likely control the outcome of that one. Here's something I've always wondered about and it applies here. The GFS was the first to pick up the Boxing Day Blizzard in December 2010 too. If it had been wrong with that one, would the snowy pattern that followed have happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: for us physical geographers -- South Mountain Range in eastern PA is what usually defines where the typical snow falls elevation driven and where it does not In NJ, the south mountain range extends into Highlands and usually is the demarcation line South Mountain Range.... is this anywhere near Lehighton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: confluence keeps increasing Confusion keeps increasing too - GFS is obviously on its own regarding snowfall amounts - but it makes you wonder since it has been so consistent the last couple of days..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 What is wrong with you people? Just kidding, but normally, when I'm away from the internet (poker night) for many hours during the run-up to an event, I judge whether things went well in the model suite by how many new pages there are in the thread and there was only one new page, so I assumed the GFS and CMC were both terrible, but then I check and the GFS looks great while the CMC was just way south with most of the precip, much earlier. So at least it's not all bad - neither model really budged much I guess from previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: South Mountain Range.... is this anywhere near Lehighton? Lehighton is located on the Blue Mts range- Appalachian Trail location. South Mountain is a lower elevation ridge of mountains/hills that separates Lehigh Valley on the southeast side of the Lehigh Valley running parallel to the Delaware River up to about Easton. For example - I-78 traverses over South Mountain at the Route 309 interchange- the huge hill before you come into the Allentown area. Anything southeast of Allentown is more in the Fall line area. Many times it snows in Allentown but not in Quakertown and points southeast because of the South Mountains, In fact Bear Creek ski resort in Macungie is in the top ten of ski resorts in the US is also at the top of the South Mountain Range and I live about 5 miles from it https://www.thetravel.com/best-mountain-resorts-in-the-us-for-winter/#bear-creek-mountain-resort-pennsylvania-a-mountain-wonderland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: What is wrong with you people? Just kidding, but normally, when I'm away from the internet (poker night) for many hours during the run-up to an event, I judge whether things went well in the model suite by how many new pages there are in the thread and there was only one new page, so I assumed the GFS and CMC were both terrible, but then I check and the GFS looks great while the CMC was just way south with most of the precip, much earlier. So at least it's not all bad - neither model really budged much I guess from previous runs. this thread was not started by Walt because he is not confident about any significant snow with this "event" and I agree with him so far.....but there is nothing else to track in this boring winter so we might as well track it IMO..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Albedoman said: Lehighton is located on the Blue Mts range- Appalachian Trail location. South Mountain is a lower elevation ridge of mountains/hills that separates Lehigh Valley on the southeast side of the Lehigh Valley running parallel to the Delaware River up to about Easton. For example - I-78 traverses over South Mountain at the Route 309 interchange- the huge hill before you come into the Allentown area. Anything southeast of Allentown is more in the Fall line area. Many times it snows in Allentown but not in Quakertown and points southeast because of the South Mountains, In fact Bear Creek ski resort in Macungie is in the top ten of ski resorts in the US is also at the top of the South Mountain Range and I live about 5 miles from it https://www.thetravel.com/best-mountain-resorts-in-the-us-for-winter/#bear-creek-mountain-resort-pennsylvania-a-mountain-wonderland That's interesting you mentioned Bear Creek, there must be at least 3 Bear Creeks in eastern PA, there's one up in Carbon County too, near Jim Thorpe, as well as another one further NE from there. The one in Carbon County is close to Camelback ski resort and up around 2200 ft. How high up is the one in Macungie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 this may become a solid 3-6" event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, snobal said: this may become a solid 3-6" event There's another forum that needs your unicorn appearances...Just saying. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Confusion keeps increasing too - GFS is obviously on its own regarding snowfall amounts - but it makes you wonder since it has been so consistent the last couple of days..... GFS consistency does not mean it's correct. Seen that too many times 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Long Island lol-- I take it the model only sees ocean there? Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I guess we'll know about the Euro soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro is rain to snow for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 GFS/ECMWF and ensembles vs CMC and UKMET. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 00z euro fresh from the oven 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS/ECMWF and ensembles vs CMC and UKMET. lol As long as it doesn't get sheared out then parts of the region could do well. An amplifying storm and the squeeze play with confluence could yield some high totals otherwise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Euro looking similar to the GFS in many ways, although it's a little earlier and not as snowy - but a big improvement over 12Z, especially for those along 78 and even 95. The early part would help with accumulations as ~90% of the snow falls before 7 am (after a good 3/4" of rain, at least for 95). Euro and GFS vs. CMC and UK, I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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