Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

BOX isn’t buying the trend apparently or they’re just going with the HREF 
 

 

They might want to coordinate their map with their AFD.

A significant Winter Storm impacts southern New England through
Tuesday. The latest suite of guidance has trended further to the
south, but this quick hitter is expected to bring a large area of 6-
12" of snow . Localized totals over a foot are possible from
northern CT, RI, along and south of the MA Turnpike given the trend
southward. This is where there could be some snow banding as
indicated by HREF snowband probs. Still have uncertainty on the
northwestern extent of precip along with snow amounts and ptypes
along with snow accums across Cape Cod and the Islands.......

......

There is some concern in the snowfall
totals realized as there could be a tight NWly precip gradient the
UKMET, GEM and NAM indicate. These areas will have much better SLRs,
so these issues could be overcome. Due to this uncertainty have left
up the Winter Storm Watch for now.

 

 

[wx_observer]

12 minutes ago, joey2002 said:

BOX isn’t buying the trend apparently or they’re just going with the HREF 
 

12-18 seems pretty aggressive, doesn't it?  Did I miss the temps going down enough for there to be a bigger fluff factor?  I thought this was expected to be more like white concrete than powder.

[dendrite]

Pretty wild trends the last 24hrs. 
 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

That 00z HREF is an absolute crushjob pike south . Impressive 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That 00z HREF is an absolute crushjob pike south . Impressive 

At the rate this is going, it'll be an 84-South job at 12z.

[joey2002]

8 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

12-18 seems pretty aggressive, doesn't it?  Did I miss the temps going down enough for there to be a bigger fluff factor?  I thought this was expected to be more like white concrete than powder.

Yeah ratios appear to be lower than 10:1 in most areas of CT at least according to Kuchera.  They’re riding the 00z HREF… also not sure why BOX can’t fix the locations of the towns on the map. 

[ineedsnow]

amazing how different some models are this close in

[Torch Tiger]

5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Ukie is south. Wow, concerns.

TTTE

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

At the rate this is going, it'll be an 84-South job at 12z.

Everything has stabilized. Pretty much locked in

[Patrick-02540]

Danbury to Tolland to Worcester jackpot.  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Danbury to Tolland to Worcester jackpot.  

Midlevels look very good for that corridor. But prior to going to bed last night I had mentioned a steep cutoff in precip and that’s still showing up this morning so im thinking it’s real. 
 

I think less northern stream interaction is helping increase the gradient. Someone is going to get absolutely smoked though on the northern side where the fronto band sets up. 

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pretty wild trends the last 24hrs. 
 

 

Put away your broom

[moneypitmike]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

amazing how all the models suck

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Midlevels look very good for that corridor. But prior to going to bed last night I had mentioned a steep cutoff in precip and that’s still showing up this morning so im thinking it’s real. 
 

I think less northern stream interaction is helping increase the gradient. Someone is going to get absolutely smoked though on the northern side where the fronto band sets up. 

Wilmington 15" and Methuen 5"?

Time to engage in sping.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, joey2002 said:

BOX isn’t buying the trend apparently or they’re just going with the HREF 
 

Rolling with the 700mb goodies but the cutoff will be sharper than that 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, joey2002 said:

BOX isn’t buying the trend apparently or they’re just going with the HREF 
 

Those short tange models nailed 1/7 at this range.....just keep that in the back of the grape.

[dan11295]

You just don't want any more southern shifts if you are in the ORH-BOS corridor. Trends needs to stop at 12z otherwise you risk being north of the cutoff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

You just don't want any more southern shifts if you are in the ORH-BOS corridor. Trends needs to stop at 12z otherwise you risk being north of the cutoff.

I wouldn't worry there. I may have some issues now, but willing to bet this ticks back a bit today and tonight.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wilmington 15" and Methuen 5"?

Time to engage in sping.

Can’t rule it out. You prob want to see a little tick back north to feel safe there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t rule it out. You prob want to see a little tick back north to feel safe there. 

One time I know for a fact that happened was 1/7/1996...it was like 5" of sand here and 18" in Wilmington....but thankfully, I lived in Wilmington then.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm just glad the pike region gets crushed, so I should have a day off.

[Hoth]

Wow, I tried the TBlizz reverse psychology on this and it may just work. That's some powerful poopoo voodoo!

[Ski Patroller]

[Heisy]

6z euro looks even flatter so far


.

[MJO812]

Wtf is going on now

[NoCORH4L]

Curtis on WEEI just said Westminster is going to be the jackpot with 17.3", and Boston is getting nowhere near a foot. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wtf is going on now

Well, if you want the blog, its your's, I guess.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, if you want the blog, its your's, I guess.

I might even get screwed 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unreal....this winter can eat me now.

[MJO812]