Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[The 4 Seasons]

21 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

Look at the ukie and put ‘em back on

Ukie is south. Wow, concerns.

[weathafella]

Today was the messenger shuffle day.  Tomorrow likely will feature a tick or 2 back north.  Not much difference either way from my perspective.

[The 4 Seasons]

Euro with a sizeable jump south, looking good

[CCHurricane]

00z Euro says take 'em down. Rough trends this evening for all outside of coastal areas. 

[78Blizzard]

Euro takes a step toward the Ukie.

[MuddyWx]

Euro further south, cutoff is sharp at the MA/NH border

[weathafella]

Ironically the gfs has been pretty stable with small changes following trends.

[78Blizzard]

Quite a difference now between the juicier mesos and the Euro and Ukie.

[weathafella]

Regardless of the qpf output, H7 on the Euro skirts along the southern new england coast which argues a much better system into NH despite what the qpf maps say.  In fact the mid level centers have me feeling pretty good here in the pike region.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Regardless of the qpf output, H7 on the Euro skirts along the southern new england coast which argues a much better system into NH despite what the qpf maps say.  In fact the mid level centers have me feeling pretty good here in the pike 

Yea true stuff. Looks awesome 

[Sn0waddict]

Huh that was quite the trend down here tonight.  If it stays like this past 12z then I’m sold.

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Today was the messenger shuffle day.  Tomorrow likely will feature a tick or 2 back north.  Not much difference either way from my perspective.

For a change, we've had a comfortable buffer with this one (pike region). 

Much more impactful shift for those on margins: Philly went from 1" at 12z to 11" at 0z.

H5 looks about same, but the shift begins to appear at 30h (6z Tues) when the shortwave takes a more easterly than northeasterly trajectory. Confluence is a bit stronger but I'm not certain that's the biggest cause that early. In any case, south is the theme tonight, but as you say I wouldn't be shocked to see this tick north tomorrow. 

[203whiteout]

Huh that was quite the trend down here tonight.  If it stays like this past 12z then I’m sold.

What’s the surface temp on euro during height of storm for coastal CT?


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[TheSnowman]

Wait, “Spaghettios” is an OFFICIAL type of Map??  Looked like something I would create in paint…..?  

[Ginx snewx]

10 to 14 jacks 6 Z NAM

[MJO812]

First Winter Storm Watch here in 2 years

5-8 inches 

[203whiteout]

10-15” pretty much state wide CT from the overnight runs. Good start to 6z..


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[AstronomyEnjoyer]

06z ICON much better for folks on northern fringe. Why do these silly cruel Germans play tricks on me?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Enough with the south trend, let's put this back in reverse starting now. 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

What’s the surface temp on euro during height of storm for coastal CT?


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[AstronomyEnjoyer]

06z HRRR north from 00z. I'll take anything at this point.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

06z HRRR north from 00z. I'll take anything at this point.

Cuts down totals for everyone except those on northern fringe. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Cuts down totals for everyone except those on northern fringe. 

Well, it's the HRRR at 40 hours. Usually better at like 4 hours.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

06z GFS is south.

[moneypitmike]

I'm selling the 10-16" that BOX  has in m y p/c

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

18 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

06z GFS is south.

F that, from 13 inches to 6 in one run. I think it's time to take a break from model watching. This south trend has to end. Hopefully the 12z's bring back some sanity.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not great here

[Sey-Mour Snow]

lol what the hell is going on? From a rt 2 jack to MJO jack in 18 hours on day 2!  Congrats to MJO for joining the party let’s hope it stops trending south this is absolutely wild! 

[moneypitmike]

And then there's the ICON

[joey2002]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol what the hell is going on? From a rt 2 jack to MJO jack in 18 hours on day 2!  Congrats to MJO for joining the party let’s hope it stops trending south this is absolutely wild! 

BOX isn’t buying the trend apparently or they’re just going with the HREF