Following a Miller A/B hybrid type coastal potential, Feb 13th ... As yet untapped potential and a higher ceiling with this one

[78Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

00z ICON is south. Looks a bit like the 18z Euro now.

The ICON is reflecting taint for BOS south, including some inland areas.

[The 4 Seasons]

Might be the first warning snowfall a lot of us in southern CT have seen in over 2 years, sad shit. NYC has an outside shot at it but BL temps there are pretty rough, but its possible

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

RGEM--get out the toasters.

Cranberry bogs crushed, while Ray sweeps the steps off?

[Patfan1987]

wow, this how you treat all members who want to learn about the weather.

Only those who don’t understand what New England is defined as.

[Patfan1987]

Only those who don’t understand what New England is defined as.

[WinterWolf]

Icon is a crusher here…but of course it’s the ICON. 

[weatherwiz]

NAM bufkit for BDL...that banding is going to be hellacious 

[weatherwiz]

Pounding for BOS too. 35-40 units of omega too. Tampa Bay Lightning may not be the only lightning in Boston Tuesday. Looks pretty gusty too as Tuesday morning progresses.

[Torch Tiger]

wow

[codfishsnowman]

Reggie makes me nervous 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, codfishsnowman said:

Reggie makes me nervous 

Reggie sucks…don’t be. 

[DavisStraight]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Pounding for BOS too. 35-40 units of omega too. Tampa Bay Lightning may not be the only lightning in Boston Tuesday. Looks pretty gusty too as Tuesday morning progresses.

What are we looking at Paul?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

What are we looking at Paul?

Think many area going to get crushed. 

[weatherwiz]

GFS is pound town. 

[moneypitmike]

GFS

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS is pound town. 

Ya it is…lock it in and Lets Go.

[Johnno]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GFS

Close to a runnaway jack depicted there 

[Cyclone-68]

Gotta figure a few folks are going to lose power with the heavy wet cement and any kind of wind

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Johnno said:

Close to a runnaway jack depicted there 

 Runnaway will jackpot. noted

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GFS

I try not to put much trust into clown maps but an outcome like that, would have me preferring to stay bare ground out here.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Close to a runnaway jack depicted there 

That's right up my keister.

[ineedsnow]

starting to look ugly here 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Interesting developments. OKX has a big decision to make tomorrow morning for their coverage area. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Interesting developments. Okc has a big decision to make tomorrow morning for their coverage area. 

NYC metro is a nightmare forecast 0 or 12” in spots with urban heat effect 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

starting to look ugly here 

Let’s see what happens overnight.  Your area is still fine but West and North of you could slip towards a forgettable and annoying event.  Hopefully the fairly expansive precipitation shield on the Euro holds true.  

[SnowGoose69]

51 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Might be the first warning snowfall a lot of us in southern CT have seen in over 2 years, sad shit. NYC has an outside shot at it but BL temps there are pretty rough, but its possible

The MOS DPs look good to me, 28-29 on NAM, 32-33 on the GFS.  I have always in dynamic scenarios averaged those two and as long as your wind is counterclockwise of 060 you'll accumulate down there

[NeonPeon]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NYC metro is a nightmare forecast 0 or 12” in spots with urban heat effect 

I appreciate the idea that was raised earlier that there haven't been massive changes in this storm despite the drama It's been well forecast and there's a lot of consensus. And I get, that yeah, it's a type of imby noise that amplifies very minor modeled differences.

But that's kind of the nature of the beast. The more accuracy over time, the more demand for accuracy. People won't abide the sort of probabilistic judgements that are necessary at the margins and want what they consider to be an actionable forecast.

Every detailed forecast of one of these storms is focused on the margins, the nw edge and the southern thermals. The rest is often obvious, and the differences aren't meaningful.

And, very frequently, riding that southern line between nothing much and a warning event, is the largest population center in the United states.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Close to a runnaway jack depicted there 

I still think the highest amounts will be in a 25mile stripe nw of 84 like new fairfield through nect/ema. Similar to what @weatherwizmap looks like. 

[ORH_wxman]

There definitely seems to be not only a southward trend, but the precip cutoff is becoming tighter. You might go from a foot to 2” in a span of 15 miles if these solutions are correct. Something we’ll have to watch for on the next couple cycles…if that very tight gradient persists. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There definitely seems to be not only a southward trend, but the precip cutoff is becoming tighter. You might go from a foot to 2” in a span of 15 miles if these solutions are correct. Something we’ll have to watch for on the next couple cycles…if that very tight gradient persists. 

Yeah this whole thing is becoming very compressed in the last few cycles. It’s getting pretty dicey up by Ray and especially north and west of his area